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On Trucking

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Re: On Trucking

#61

Post by jaclaz »

slfnflctd wrote: post #54
jaclaz wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to me way too optimistic/entusiast on the matter. Volvo (which is BTW one of the more optimistic companies) is still today excluding long-haul trucks from being fully electric, and they have just started production of short-haul and "regional" electric trucks. And of course full self-driving is still beyond the horizon. BTW, and only as a side note, traditional trucks already use engine braking or retarders…

It continually boggles my mind that more people aren't interested in hybrids here. There's a company called Hyliion that's been working on this for a while (I have no involvement or investment with them, just interested), and there are likely others as well, but there still doesn't seem to be a lot of uptake or discussion about it. Hybrids seem to me like a net win all around for at least some use cases. I'm not sure…

For long-haul hybrids do make a lot of sense, moving on the highways/out of cities on fuel, then switching to electric when entering them but - isn't there always a but - there is a much simpler solution already available, you use a "normal" truck for the highway, arrive on an exchange parking, leave the trailer that then is brought into the city by a pure electric truck.

Surely there can be particular routes/scenarios where hybrids may offer an advantage, but it is not (at least to me) very clear which ones they are.

Re: On Trucking

#62

Post by cwalv »

morpheos137 wrote: post #43
mrhektor wrote: post #26

Super interesting analysis of the trucking market. A couple of questions would be: * At what speed is the industry going to embrace self-driving / "augmented driving" in trucks? I'd imagine a driver would still be required at the wheel in case of emergencies for the foreseeable future. What new skills would truckers have to learn? * Given the environmental impact of trucking (self-driving or not), what are some inter…

With all due respect the hubris (and folly) of Silicon Valley pursuing driveless cars and trucks as well as things like uber is astounding. It will fail in the market because the technology does not exist and will not exist in the foreseeable future unless or until something like AGI is perfected. Driving is not a closed domain problem. There will always be fat tail circumstances where statistical methods will break…

> Driving is not a closed domain problem. There will always be fat tail circumstances where statistical methods will break down.

It doesn’t have to solve all cases to be immensely useful. All it needs is to be able to recognize when it’s unable to safely have control with enough advance notice to delegate to a human. Remotely piloted aircraft have been a thing for a long time; seems like we could do the same with trucks, so that humans only need to do the driving a small % of the time. I also suspect that current AI will likely respond to emergency situations better than humans do on average, because they don’t get tired and have superior reaction time.

Re: On Trucking

#63

Post by kec »

abetusk wrote: post #41

Maybe this is a stupid question but is there any value in trying to put solar panels on the roofs of trucks to offset fuel costs? Solar panels are (new) around $0.75 / Watt and less than that used. Maybe you could fit 9 or so on the top which, depending on what panels you use, could be about a 1kW or so in sunlight. Maybe it's too much of a stretch to ask for a modified engine but heating the driver cabin or even pro…

That's a lot of extra weight for maybe 9-10kWHr of energy at most (assuming a full day of perfect summertime conditions)... One gallon of diesel fuel contains about 35kWHr of energy.

Re: On Trucking

#64

Post by toomuchtodo »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #44
coderintherye wrote: post #4

Awesome write-up. Would be really curious for insight into why truck purchase loans run 8-10% APR with 20% down. If anything, I'd expect them to be lower risk and easier to re-posses?

Probably because it's a cut throat business and truckers operating on razor thin margins are more likely to default on their loans when they get into trouble. The second hand value of the trucks is not enough to cover that risk. A two year old truck has a value of course, but it's nowhere near the new value of the truck.

Correct! It’s like rent to own homes, when the operator knows the renter will default and won’t take ownership. The profit is the transaction duration.

(family member is a truck driver)

Re: On Trucking

#65

Post by grogenaut »

cwalv wrote: post #62
morpheos137 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With all due respect the hubris (and folly) of Silicon Valley pursuing driveless cars and trucks as well as things like uber is astounding. It will fail in the market because the technology does not exist and will not exist in the foreseeable future unless or until something like AGI is perfected. Driving is not a closed domain problem. There will always be fat tail circumstances where statistical methods will break…

> Driving is not a closed domain problem. There will always be fat tail circumstances where statistical methods will break down. It doesn’t have to solve all cases to be immensely useful. All it needs is to be able to recognize when it’s unable to safely have control with enough advance notice to delegate to a human. Remotely piloted aircraft have been a thing for a long time; seems like we could do the same with tru…

You can't just dump control to the person sleeping or playing marvel snap in the driver seat as your out. With aircraft there are attentive people on standby and more than one. With remote aircraft people are way less likely to die if something goes wrong. You also start really lowering the training level of humans.

I'll alter one of my favorite jokes to explain.

I want to go out like my Tesla ai did, in a bit of confusion and reanimated from rom, not screaming no no no no like the people in the car.

Tho truly with a lot of these the people will go out in their sleep.

Re: On Trucking

#66

Post by Scubabear68 »

s1mon wrote: post #59

I’m surprised with how much care went into breaking down the various pieces of the industry, there was zero mention of the Teamsters Union. Nor is there much mention of any of the human issues which lead to things like most trucking companies failing in the first couple of years. Perhaps looking at trucking from a human centered design perspective would identify problems and needs which are missing from this otherwis…

This is an excellent observation. I am working a bit in the marine/rail terminal space (on the software side), it is amazing how much functionality is built specifically to fulfill union contract terms at various terminals.

Re: On Trucking

#67

Post by dchuk »

mrhektor wrote: post #26

Super interesting analysis of the trucking market. A couple of questions would be: * At what speed is the industry going to embrace self-driving / "augmented driving" in trucks? I'd imagine a driver would still be required at the wheel in case of emergencies for the foreseeable future. What new skills would truckers have to learn? * Given the environmental impact of trucking (self-driving or not), what are some inter…

Margins in trucking simply can’t accommodate self driving without the costs of shipping having to go way up. The tech is expensive, we’re probably decades away from true self driving with no minder in the truck on open roads, who the hell knows how the regulatory landscape will shake out, this stuff may never work in bad weather conditions (blocking half the country for half the year). And even with self driving, you still have fuel/charging costs, tires, etc. and someone has to load and unload the truck.

The most likely beachhead will be desert lanes in places with low regulations where the middle mile is autonomous but things are handed off to a real driver for getting to the actual warehouse. That’s complicated/limited use cases/more expensive for the same product. Tough sell.

I work directly in heavy duty trucking tech. Our customers are the biggest fleets in the country. All of them are exploring the tech to not fall behind, but behind closed doors every trucking leader will admit we’re nowhere near operationalizing self driving. Not to mention it’s unclear if the biz model for autonomous trucks is to sell the tech (then who is liable when the robot kills someone?) or to sell trucking capacity, the latter squarely making the autonomy companies competitors of trucking carriers vs vendors. It’s messy as hell.

Self driving is the VR of logistics. “We’re a year away” for the next 25 years is where my bets are being placed.

Re: On Trucking

#68

Post by Analemma_ »

abetusk wrote: post #41

Maybe this is a stupid question but is there any value in trying to put solar panels on the roofs of trucks to offset fuel costs? Solar panels are (new) around $0.75 / Watt and less than that used. Maybe you could fit 9 or so on the top which, depending on what panels you use, could be about a 1kW or so in sunlight. Maybe it's too much of a stretch to ask for a modified engine but heating the driver cabin or even pro…

Aren't most trucks actually hauling intermodal containers? The panels would have to be on the containers themselves, and then they could not be stacked.

Re: On Trucking

#69

Post by rightbyte »

abetusk wrote: post #41

Maybe this is a stupid question but is there any value in trying to put solar panels on the roofs of trucks to offset fuel costs? Solar panels are (new) around $0.75 / Watt and less than that used. Maybe you could fit 9 or so on the top which, depending on what panels you use, could be about a 1kW or so in sunlight. Maybe it's too much of a stretch to ask for a modified engine but heating the driver cabin or even pro…

> Maybe this is a stupid question but is there any value in trying to put solar panels on the roofs of trucks to offset fuel costs?

The value is lower than putting the solar panels in a desert where they don't shake around and get worn out quicker. Perpetual solar powered auto-mobiles weight almost nothing and are more like three wheel bikes where you lay down. So on a truck it would be bugger all.

Re: On Trucking

#70

Post by cwalv »

grogenaut wrote: post #65
cwalv wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Driving is not a closed domain problem. There will always be fat tail circumstances where statistical methods will break down. It doesn’t have to solve all cases to be immensely useful. All it needs is to be able to recognize when it’s unable to safely have control with enough advance notice to delegate to a human. Remotely piloted aircraft have been a thing for a long time; seems like we could do the same with tru…

You can't just dump control to the person sleeping or playing marvel snap in the driver seat as your out. With aircraft there are attentive people on standby and more than one. With remote aircraft people are way less likely to die if something goes wrong. You also start really lowering the training level of humans. I'll alter one of my favorite jokes to explain. I want to go out like my Tesla ai did, in a bit of con…

I'm not saying that you attempt FSD with the copout that a driver needs to stay attentive and be ready to intervene. I'm saying that there is a high proportion of truck driving that's completely mindless, and it's possible to have a system that recognizes the difference.
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