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On Trucking

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Re: On Trucking

#51

Post by jessaustin »

throw0101c wrote: post #31

The Odd Lots podcast recently did two episodes on US trucking that were interesting. The first with an actual trucker, "The Trucking Episode: Why the Industry Is Such a Mess": * https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-trucking-episode-w... * https://omny.fm/shows/odd-lots/the-trucking-episode-why-the-... Interesting observations on tracking in that episode: > Gord: (23:44) […] So they regulate the drivers, right? A…

I regularly drive semi-long distances on the interstate. There has been a huge turnover in big truck drivers over the last 5-10 years. One used to be able to trust that in any situation, truck drivers would take the safe reasonable action. I observe that not to be the case now, and I really don't think it's because of my advancing age.

I have sympathy for anyone who spends all day locked in a cab with a robot that's always ready to punish for infractions. From the outside it appears that the robot cares about profit, not about safety.

Re: On Trucking

#52

Post by jaclaz »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #42
mrhektor wrote: post #26

Super interesting analysis of the trucking market. A couple of questions would be: * At what speed is the industry going to embrace self-driving / "augmented driving" in trucks? I'd imagine a driver would still be required at the wheel in case of emergencies for the foreseeable future. What new skills would truckers have to learn? * Given the environmental impact of trucking (self-driving or not), what are some inter…

IMHO (and this is just my relatively uninformed opinion), the key driving force here will be the shift to electric trucks. These are more expensive to buy but cheaper to operate. At least right now. And also easier to turn into self driving platforms. ICE trucks are really hard to operate. You are basically micro managing the gears, dealing with lot of fairly complex bit of equipment, etc. Electric trucks basically h…

You seem to me way too optimistic/entusiast on the matter.

Volvo (which is BTW one of the more optimistic companies) is still today excluding long-haul trucks from being fully electric, and they have just started production of short-haul and "regional" electric trucks.

And of course full self-driving is still beyond the horizon.

BTW, and only as a side note, traditional trucks already use engine braking or retarders extensively, so I don't think that regenerative braking will change much when it comes to the amount of brake dust.

Re: On Trucking

#53

Post by alexdoesstuff »

adaml_623 wrote: post #23
gnfargbl wrote: post #19

The article claims about 3 million truck tractors on US roads, and puts the cost of each driver at about $65k/year. Am I correct in naively calculating something like $200B/year on the table for full-self-driving truck technology?

Truck drivers do a lot more than just sit in the cab and drive. Sure I guess there are operating models where you don't need one driver paired all the time with one truck but definitely can't just replace drivers IMHO

The fact that truck drivers do more than just drive isn't a necessity though. There is no reason why truck drivers also needs to be an unpaid loaders/unloaders and any other roles currently taking on by them. It's just a matter of "we've always done it like that". Businesses will reorganize themselves if it means a substantial reduction in transport costs.

Re: On Trucking

#54

Post by slfnflctd »

jaclaz wrote: post #52
jillesvangurp wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMHO (and this is just my relatively uninformed opinion), the key driving force here will be the shift to electric trucks. These are more expensive to buy but cheaper to operate. At least right now. And also easier to turn into self driving platforms. ICE trucks are really hard to operate. You are basically micro managing the gears, dealing with lot of fairly complex bit of equipment, etc. Electric trucks basically h…

You seem to me way too optimistic/entusiast on the matter. Volvo (which is BTW one of the more optimistic companies) is still today excluding long-haul trucks from being fully electric, and they have just started production of short-haul and "regional" electric trucks. And of course full self-driving is still beyond the horizon. BTW, and only as a side note, traditional trucks already use engine braking or retarders…

It continually boggles my mind that more people aren't interested in hybrids here. There's a company called Hyliion that's been working on this for a while (I have no involvement or investment with them, just interested), and there are likely others as well, but there still doesn't seem to be a lot of uptake or discussion about it.

Hybrids seem to me like a net win all around for at least some use cases. I'm not sure where the value proposition is breaking down (or if anyone's even put in the effort to figure out whether it actually is breaking down).

Re: On Trucking

#55

Post by WastingMyTime89 »

morpheos137 wrote: post #43
mrhektor wrote: post #26

Super interesting analysis of the trucking market. A couple of questions would be: * At what speed is the industry going to embrace self-driving / "augmented driving" in trucks? I'd imagine a driver would still be required at the wheel in case of emergencies for the foreseeable future. What new skills would truckers have to learn? * Given the environmental impact of trucking (self-driving or not), what are some inter…

With all due respect the hubris (and folly) of Silicon Valley pursuing driveless cars and trucks as well as things like uber is astounding. It will fail in the market because the technology does not exist and will not exist in the foreseeable future unless or until something like AGI is perfected. Driving is not a closed domain problem. There will always be fat tail circumstances where statistical methods will break…

Driverless trucking encompasses a large numbers of usage in between full autonomy everywhere and no autonomy at all.

For example, fully autonomous trucks which only work on highway with special equipment on the side could already be worth it. Long haul drivers can’t drive without stopping, can make mistakes and it’s not a very pleasant job. If you could only use a driver for the last few miles, that’s a huge gain.

You are mistaking a failure of your imagination for an absence of possibilities.

Re: On Trucking

#56

Post by WastingMyTime89 »

barry-cotter wrote: post #16
prox wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are unions in the US the same as Trade Unions in Europe? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_unions_in_Europe

Yes and no. So in both cases the aim is to act as a labour cartel to redistribute economic surplus from either consumers, firms or potential competition to insiders. But US labour law makes co-determination illegal. Having a company approved union is forbidden. Cooperation between firm management and union management is forbidden. Everything must be adversarial all the time. In reality like everything else it’s fract…

> So in both cases the aim is to act as a labour cartel to redistribute economic surplus from either consumers, firms or potential competition to insiders.

After reading that, you can safely ignore any comments for this person regarding European unions. I can guarantee you it’s an American and they have no idea of what they are talking about.

Unions in Europe have little to do with their American counterparts. Membership is never compulsory to begin with. They are just representative of labour for negotiations. Part of their role is actually mandated by the state. For example, minimum salaries for each roles here is set by bilateral agreements between the biggest employers and employees unions.

They play their role fairly well and nearly never strike. Calling them a cartel is beyond ridiculous.

Re: On Trucking

#57

Post by hotpotamus »

abetusk wrote: post #41

Maybe this is a stupid question but is there any value in trying to put solar panels on the roofs of trucks to offset fuel costs? Solar panels are (new) around $0.75 / Watt and less than that used. Maybe you could fit 9 or so on the top which, depending on what panels you use, could be about a 1kW or so in sunlight. Maybe it's too much of a stretch to ask for a modified engine but heating the driver cabin or even pro…

My first thought is that the differences in energy in what you can collect from an area the size of a trailer and how much energy it takes to move a 40 ton object make the whole thing seem pretty marginal.

My second thought is that even if the math worked out the incentives might not since it's a combination vehicle and each part of the combination is probably owned by a different entity. That's where a government mandate might be needed.

Re: On Trucking

#58

Post by dglass »

I work for a startup in the trucking space so it's nice to see such an in depth analysis of the industry. I can agree that most of the article is accurate based on what I've seen in my 4 years in the industry. There is so much more innovation going on in the trucking industry that a lot of people don't know about.

My company, Platform Science, is building a configurable open platform that connects a lot of the different categories mentioned in the article (drivers, carriers, brokers, OEMs, software vendors, etc). If you're interested in career opportunities in the trucking industry, we're hiring for a number of open positions[1]. Feel free to send me an email (My work email is in my profile) and I can connect you with the right hiring manager.

[0]: https://www.platformscience.com

[1]: https://www.platformscience.com/jobs

Re: On Trucking

#59

Post by s1mon »

I’m surprised with how much care went into breaking down the various pieces of the industry, there was zero mention of the Teamsters Union. Nor is there much mention of any of the human issues which lead to things like most trucking companies failing in the first couple of years.

Perhaps looking at trucking from a human centered design perspective would identify problems and needs which are missing from this otherwise deep analysis. What are the pain points of the various types of roles/people involved, what makeshift solutions are they currently using, and do they have money to spend on a better solution?

Re: On Trucking

#60

Post by barry-cotter »

WastingMyTime89 wrote: post #56
barry-cotter wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes and no. So in both cases the aim is to act as a labour cartel to redistribute economic surplus from either consumers, firms or potential competition to insiders. But US labour law makes co-determination illegal. Having a company approved union is forbidden. Cooperation between firm management and union management is forbidden. Everything must be adversarial all the time. In reality like everything else it’s fract…

> So in both cases the aim is to act as a labour cartel to redistribute economic surplus from either consumers, firms or potential competition to insiders. After reading that, you can safely ignore any comments for this person regarding European unions. I can guarantee you it’s an American and they have no idea of what they are talking about. Unions in Europe have little to do with their American counterparts. Member…

I’m Irish. Having studied Economics does not make me an American. Economic surplus can either go to consumers in the form of lower prices, the firm’s owners in profits or current workers in wages. As

> representative of labour for negotiations

in your words they try to get as much of the economic surplus for themselves as possible. They can do this with a long time horizon like German unions where there’s s consideration that you want the company to still be around in 30 years so your child has the option to work there or American style give me all your money right now short termism.

Cartel isn’t a term of abuse. It’s a description of the entire point of a union. They monopolise labour and negotiate with employers to the benefit of the average worker. The less like the average worker you are the less well they’re going to represent you.

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