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Eggs are 60% more expensive than last year in the US

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Re: Eggs are 60% more expensive than last year in the US

#51

Genuine question. Does this mean that the average person can start a chicken farm today and earn massive profits? What is stopping an enterprising person from grabbing those profits?

Chickens grow relatively quickly. By the time you brought your new farm online, the existing ones would have recovered. Chickens grow exponentially, infrastructure grows linearly (if that) in money invested.

Re: Eggs are 60% more expensive than last year in the US

#52

Genuine question. Does this mean that the average person can start a chicken farm today and earn massive profits? What is stopping an enterprising person from grabbing those profits?

The average person doesn't have room for a sufficient sized chicken coop. The average person doesn't have the wherewithal to get eggs to market. The average person can't efficiently produce eggs in any sort of quantity to satisfy market demand. The average person hasn't invested in quality control nor in packaging. Simply put, the average person can't do much to take advantage of any short-term pricing issues. In the long term this will settle, so any short-term investments that the average person will make will not be recooped (see what I did there).

Re: Eggs are 60% more expensive than last year in the US

#53
post #36

My wife has a cottage baking business and would buy 15 dozen eggs from Costco Business Center. Already high, a few months back in cost about $45 for the box. Just last week it was $110. She doesn't recall but it fairly certain the box was between $20-30 before inflation hit. However she said they had chicken legs that were .49/lb which is a great price but hard to reconcile with the narrative that avian flu is the ca…

Broilers take a fraction of the time to grow compared to the five months it takes before a hen lays the first egg.

Re: Eggs are 60% more expensive than last year in the US

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea this also. Colorado, one of the major state producers requires all chickens who produce eggs for sale to be cage free as of January 1st.

As an athlete who eats like a highschool linebacker (in Colorado), I've been watching eggs prices climb up $0.50 each week for a dozen, then jump $3 in one week. Now there's none on the shelves at all.

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Re: Eggs are 60% more expensive than last year in the US

#55
post #44
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's less fun with bird flu.

Correct me if I am wrong but bird flu is spread between birds in a flock, and so industrial, heavily concentrated flocks are breeding grounds for bird flu? So backyard chickens being more diverse, smaller flocks, would increase food security and reduce spread?

Not exactly. Free birds can still spread the flu from one location to another, e.g. by dropping excrements.

Re: Eggs are 60% more expensive than last year in the US

#56
post #7

Answer: Bird flu and inflation (less so). Although I suspect in short time we'll find out that the price hikes due to "bird flu" and "inflation" become... permanent.

Inflation is always permanent.

There’s a difference between inflation and a price hike within one industry

Of course inflation is permanent. The mechanics of money would break down otherwise. When money can deflate, money becomes an investment vehicle like crypto did and we know how bad that is.

When there is a threat of inflation, it forces people to transfer money instead of hoarding it. That is the entire purpose of money.

Now, about the price hike… is it permanent? Probably not when there are 160,000 competing poultry farms.

Re: Eggs are 60% more expensive than last year in the US

#57
My wife is a professional baker.

She buys a 60 pack of eggs real regularly. It was $13 in November, it's $18 now. The same pack is $30 is California at the moment.

Check it out. Go to this link and change your zip code. See what happens to the price.

https://www.walmart.com/search?q=eggs%2060%20count&typeahead...

Re: Eggs are 60% more expensive than last year in the US

#58
post #36

My wife has a cottage baking business and would buy 15 dozen eggs from Costco Business Center. Already high, a few months back in cost about $45 for the box. Just last week it was $110. She doesn't recall but it fairly certain the box was between $20-30 before inflation hit. However she said they had chicken legs that were .49/lb which is a great price but hard to reconcile with the narrative that avian flu is the ca…

Longer business cycles? Broilers would be last years layers

Broilers actually only live to be 9 weeks old, so their business cycle is very short. The old layers are labeled stew hens when you can find them at the store.

Re: Eggs are 60% more expensive than last year in the US

#59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

U.S. has had periods of deflation: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-i... . As recently as 2009.

Down 0.4 - after a 3.8% rise the year previous. Not exactly the strongest counterexample I've ever seen, though (barely) technically correct. And the last deflationary "period" (a single year) before that was ... drumroll... 1949, following 3 years of >8% inflation.

It's called the ratchet effect. The government doesn't like giving your money back. That's why taxes almost never go down, either - e.g. the "temporary" income tax that only affects the richest 1% of people..
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