Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm sorry but can you list a single stock with 15% dividend with track record for paying that out consistently? 15%+ growth (considering they pay taxes and have expenses other than dividend) consistently will reach astronomical numbers pretty quick.
They do not exist, absolutely. 4% is a good number for dividend paying stocks. Also inflation isn't over 15% hahaha.
Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession?
41–50 of 83 posts
Re: Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession?
#42How much is a "decent amount" ?
If its not equivalent to 6–12 months salary, then its not enough.
Yes, the foolhardy will try to tell you that 6–12 months cash in the bank is deadwood. But they are wrong.
What happens if you lost your job tomorrow ? You're unlikely to walk straight into another job are you!
What happens if some other $expensive_shit hits the fan ? Trust me, you'll be grateful for a cash cushion.
Make sure you always have a decent cash cushion before you start looking at investing with those dangerous rose-tinted spectacles.
Re: Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession?
#43No one here has asked you about your risk tolerance. If you need to avoid losses (maybe due to supporting the family), you move to cash or partially to cash. I wouldn't have a fear of missing out if there is no recession because your income is how you make money, not betting on the market. If you're sure a recession is coming, you move to cash or partially to cash. That allows you to buy in when things are lower (eg.…
Very much this.
There are too many idiots on the internet dishing out so-called "investment" advice without any sort of consideration of suitability for the person doing the asking.
In most cases the person doing the asking will not be willing to air sufficient dirty laundry in public to give a correct personal picture of their financial circumstances.
Hence people who give unsubstantiated "investment" advice should always be avoided.
Re: Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession?
#44When everyone is expecting a recession, one does not come. Expecting higher inflation and flat to slightly reduced growth (aka stagflation). Find dividend paying stocks that actually keep up with inflation (10-20%). They exist and have track records of maintaining this pay out, you just need to find them.
I'm sorry but can you list a single stock with 15% dividend with track record for paying that out consistently? 15%+ growth (considering they pay taxes and have expenses other than dividend) consistently will reach astronomical numbers pretty quick.
https://www.marketbeat.com/dividends/high-yield/
Anything less than 20% is what you're looking for. If you expand to foreign markets like the UK, they're entire stock market is set up to prefer dividend payments over share price.
I avoid miners and commodity stocks like rio tinto though I did time the commodity boom correctly to get their fat dividend they had not that long ago.
Re: Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession?
#45Plan all big improvements to your house, when the construction sector would have a hard time finding a job. Any expensive improvement like roof, road, fence should be much cheaper. I consider the Eastern Europe having unique opportunity these days, as the Ukrainian market has extremely good potential to grow in many areas. If it goes EU+NATO direction after the war, it may boost the whole region and follow the direct…
Potential is great, but so is the risk. For example consider this: apartments in Kiev are now priced at about 50% of their usual price, you may buy one. Now hypothetical scenario: in the Spring there is an Russian offensive on Kiev and your investment is destroyed, you have $0 in that case. I think investing and war are very very bad companions. If you want to _invest_ your cash you should avoid too risky moves. On t…
Re: Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession?
#46Re: Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession?
#47I will post again my answer to what someone else asked similarly the other day [0]: One thing we must make clear is, is there actually a recession? Many companies are firing, but they've fired much fewer than they've hired in the past few years. Many companies are still hiring now. I don't think there is a recession, much as people might be scared that there is. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34296393
Give this a skim - https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/sea-change
Re: Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession?
#48I will post again my answer to what someone else asked similarly the other day [0]: One thing we must make clear is, is there actually a recession? Many companies are firing, but they've fired much fewer than they've hired in the past few years. Many companies are still hiring now. I don't think there is a recession, much as people might be scared that there is. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34296393
Oh, sweet summer child. Give this a skim - https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/sea-change
Re: Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession?
#49-- These cycles are part of the sickness of our system. Prepare for it.
-- When times are good, hoard money. IE: save it, don't spend it. Put it in the market, in assets, in something for when you need it.
-- Always have a side hustle. It doesn't have to be much, but some little side thing where you are making a little money can make a difference when times get tough if you lose your main income source.
-- Live way below your means. While I hate the idea of being so frugal that you can't enjoy life, the cycles I've seen tell me that you have to be really on top of this. Drive that used car for 5 more years. Don't go out to eat. Buy clothes only at thrift. Don't expect to be able to vacation every year. Squeeze that budget as tight as you can to make sure that you have cash in the bank to last a year+, and more than that if you have a spouse /house / kids.
-- Even when things are bad, there's someone out there who is making money and doing ok. Health care, for example, at least in the US, is often a safe place to work in bad times. There are stocks that run counter to the rest of the market, etc.
--Try to stay ahead of the curve when things look like there are clouds coming. The market can shift downward quickly and unexpectedly, but it is often a longer, slower improvement. There is no logic to any of this, it is often the whims of forces we don't control.
-- Decide how much risk you are willing to take on in life. Being a self-employed / small-business owner is hard in a downturn.
I'm optimistic that things are going to get better again throughout 2023, because the things that are dragging us down at the moment feel more ephemeral than real, IE: we're in a recession because we all think we are in a recession and we are all following the playbook for a recession. So there will be layoffs and cutbacks etc until such time as we all realize it's probably not armageddon and we all go back to trying to push our respective businesses forward again.