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Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

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Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#351

>The AI firm is currently raising funds at a $29 billion valuation. >The tech-industry giant is ready to pay upwards of $10 billion for the acquisition [49%] So Microsoft is undervaluing them, and also soaking up 75% of profit until their investment is paid back? Seems like a bad deal.

It's a complex deal. I think we can assume sama didn't take a bad deal.

This is all clearly just a prelude to Microsoft buying the whole company.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#352
post #246

Office + ChatGPT is coming, as in...integrated. Think about what that means for writing (and reading!) emails. Powerpoint slides. Internal Wikis. The ability for enterprises to do custom training based on their own data.

> Office + ChatGPT is coming, as in...integrated.

Mmm! Perhaps finally delivering on the dream Clippy aspired to.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#353

I notice a few people lamenting that OpenAI will no longer be... open. But I have to wonder, in what sense is OpenAI open today ? In 2019, OpenAI transitioned from non-profit to for-profit. At that time, Microsoft invested US$1 billion into the company. OpenAI then announced its intention to commercially license its technologies.

I don't have any answer or opinion on whether the company "is open", I'm not sure how to operationalize that. But what you can say is that some but not all of their released products are released with code under open source licenses. Eg: https://github.com/openai/whisper/blob/main/LICENSE (an actual product, to transcribe audio, which it really does extremely well; and it's open source code; released last fall) So th…

These code bases are effectively worthless without the training, which is definitely not open.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#354

>The AI firm is currently raising funds at a $29 billion valuation. >The tech-industry giant is ready to pay upwards of $10 billion for the acquisition [49%] So Microsoft is undervaluing them, and also soaking up 75% of profit until their investment is paid back? Seems like a bad deal.

MSFT is literally incentivized to overvalue them

Not really, since they are the ones who will probably end up buying it. Overvaluing it raises the price they'll have to pay for it later.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#355

Microsoft recently signed a deal with the London Stock Exchange. They took a 4% stake in LSE (roughly $1.5B) and in exchange LSE signed a $2.8B minimum spend commit on Microsoft Cloud products (Azure, O365 primarily). If the OpenAI deal were structured similarly, could imply a $20B contract for Microsoft... https://www.lseg.com/en/media-centre/press-releases/2022/lse...

I don't think OpenAI has 20B to spend on Microsoft products atm.

The extrapolation from LSE deal makes absolutely no sense

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#356

Question to AI/ML folks : Is there no comparable open source model? Is the future going to be controlled by big corporations who own the models themselves? If models are so computationally intensive to produce does it mean than the more computational power a company has the better its models will be?

We really need this, because if it's only the absolute economic elite that will have access to this 99.9999% of people are going to be dominated, psyopped, outworked, censored and drowned in noise whether on the "left" or "right" for ultimate AI centrism aka. bootlicker discourse.

A free for all will still result in a dizzying paradigm shift though, but there is no alternative. Like Guttenberg but exponentially faster - locality will become central, "corny pop culture hacker dungeons" / hackspaces could become important as no one will know whats real and only locally controlled compute and algo power is to be trusted.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#357

>The AI firm is currently raising funds at a $29 billion valuation. >The tech-industry giant is ready to pay upwards of $10 billion for the acquisition [49%] So Microsoft is undervaluing them, and also soaking up 75% of profit until their investment is paid back? Seems like a bad deal.

The valuation is rather incredible.

I recall the media buzz around AI back in 2015 (around the same time as OpenAI was founded). It seemed everyone was hyping Canada to be the next "AI Superpower" due to the perceived hostility of the (then next) presidential administration to academics and international talent. Especially companies like Element AI.

Yet, while Element AI fizzled out [0], it seems OpenAI prospered... right here in the Valley!

Smart move by Microsoft.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25498755

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Closest you can get is probably with Google T5-Flan [1]. It is not the size of the model or the text it was trained on that makes ChatGPT so performant. It is the additional human assisted training to make it respond well to instructions. Open source versions of that are just starting to see the light of day [2]. [1] https://huggingface.co/google/flan-t5-xxl [2] https://github.com/lucidrains/PaLM-rlhf-pytorch

From, [2]: ” This repository has gone viral without my permission. Next time, if you are promoting my unfinished repositories (notice the work in progress flag) for twitter engagement or eyeballs, at least (1) do your research or (2) be totally transparent with your readers about the capacity of the repository without resorting to clickbait. (1) I was not the first, CarperAI had been working on RLHF months before, li…

> This repository has gone viral without my permission

That's a bizarre thing to write for a public repository

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#359

I'm seeing a lot of responses that see ChatGPT replacing Google, and it's unclear to me how? It can replace queries like "what's the tallest mountain in France", but that's not really a profitable query for Google. Whereas it's unclear to me how it replaces "best vegetarian restaurants in Gastown". It can string together a coherent statement, but then I have to go search to see whether it actually recommended vegetar…

Whilst I can see the benefit of being able to ask a natural language question and get served the answer (rather than being told where the answer might be), ChatGPT only has data up until 2021. For it to be able to provide up to the minute details, it would need to have an up to date dataset AND be able to keep it updated - whilst ensuring it isn’t ‘polluted’ with biased info AND spider sites. The combination of Bing…

> The combination of Bing and ChatGPT, if GPT is able to digest the search data, could be amazing.

How would this be different in experience than Google's existing "summary cards" that pop up?

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Adding it to Bing could be an actual differentiator, which has been announced. MS also has a lot of speech tech, so making a search engine an actual spoken chat could possibly be huge. That's just for Bing.

Yes but MS doesn't have a phone or and phone operating system. They could do deals with Apple like Google does to make it the primary search and or have Apple ask the user which engine they like to use on set up. There's a video on YouTube with a UK reporter having a 20 minute conversation with ChatGPT ..I wanted to use that but I guess it's a private app created by Open AI.

Bing search is absolutely shoved down the throats of Windows users and Edge users
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