Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT • Hacker News Board

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#291

Post by PartiallyTyped » Tue, Jan 10, 2023, 4:09 PM UTC

andsoitis wrote: post #184

lairv wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still more open than Google, Microsoft or DeepMind

In what specific ways? Google and Microsoft both release and contribute to open source software. They both publish vast amounts of research. What does OpenAI do differentially?

I don't think DM was open in any meaningful way other than publishing research.

It took a long time until their source code became public, and replication of certain papers is problematic to say the least.

Similar issues exist with some G.Brain papers not releasing code publicly years after acceptance.

But all of these are anecdata from a random person on HN so take with a grain of salt.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#292

Post by DrBenCarson » Tue, Jan 10, 2023, 4:09 PM UTC

everdrive wrote: post #282

This is probably a stupid question, but why would they want a 49% stake? Why not a 51% stake, or any other number?

MSFT want to eliminate the possibility that a competitor scoops them up without derailing their current autonomous trajectory. 49 is a pretty ideal number to accomplish both goals simultaneously

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#293

Post by britneybitch » Tue, Jan 10, 2023, 4:09 PM UTC

everdrive wrote: post #282

This is probably a stupid question, but why would they want a 49% stake? Why not a 51% stake, or any other number?

Likely OpenAI wants to retain control of their company. If they keep 51%, they have a majority stake.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#294

Post by llimos » Tue, Jan 10, 2023, 4:09 PM UTC

kornhole wrote: post #267

bilbo0s wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or most likely, I have been given a directive to inform you if, judging from the job description you put together, I am capable of competently discharging the tasks you outline. Would you like me to do this job for a 4 week trial period and reassess the need for these new positions at that time?

Clippy: Your current employer is a premium subscriber and has set parameters to reduce the reach and results of your job searches.

Not sure you need AI for that.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#295

Post by DrBenCarson » Tue, Jan 10, 2023, 4:10 PM UTC

mshake2 wrote: post #170

>The AI firm is currently raising funds at a $29 billion valuation. >The tech-industry giant is ready to pay upwards of $10 billion for the acquisition [49%] So Microsoft is undervaluing them, and also soaking up 75% of profit until their investment is paid back? Seems like a bad deal.

MSFT is literally incentivized to overvalue them

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#296

Post by mannerheim » Tue, Jan 10, 2023, 4:10 PM UTC

__jl__ wrote: post #283

mshake2 wrote: post #170

>The AI firm is currently raising funds at a $29 billion valuation. >The tech-industry giant is ready to pay upwards of $10 billion for the acquisition [49%] So Microsoft is undervaluing them, and also soaking up 75% of profit until their investment is paid back? Seems like a bad deal.

They already invested 1 billion in 2019, I think. So maybe they already own part of OpenAI and $10 billion brings their share up to 49% at a $29 billion valuation. Maybe I am wrong about the details here but these numbers do not mean that Microsoft is undervaluing them.

75% of profit until investment is recouped sounds like a pretty bad deal, though. Not sure it makes sense to hobble a startup's ability to reinvest in themselves at this early of a stage.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#297

Post by jwestbury » Tue, Jan 10, 2023, 4:12 PM UTC

LegitShady wrote: post #148

TekMol wrote: post #121

Does anybody else have the feeling "Microsoft is back"? With GitHub and OpenAI the have put their finger on two pretty significant new projects. What new things has Google come up with over the last 5 years?

if acquiring companies means you "are back" what was the value anyways? windows 11 seems like an intentional disaster where basif features are misaing because microsoft decided you didnt need to them. office seems to be getting worse and is now solely about thay subscription money. and many of microsofts acquisitions just languish slowly - linkedin etc. google can buy conpanies too. meh.

Google can buy companies, but when is the last time they acquired one which excelled after acquisition -- or even just didn't fail after acquisition?

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#298

Post by nprateem » Tue, Jan 10, 2023, 4:13 PM UTC

MuffinFlavored wrote: post #213

fsloth wrote: post #192

$10 Bilion for the non-ruling half of OpenAI? Impresssive. As a reference Microsoft paid $7.2 billion for the entire handset business of Nokia (which was floundering at the time, but still).

What's the path to monetization for Microsoft for OpenAI/ChatGPT?

It's probably a strategic investment to prevent competitors getting in there instead.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#299

Post by dougmwne » Tue, Jan 10, 2023, 4:14 PM UTC

TekMol wrote: post #132

curiousmindz wrote: post #124

I expect this deal to be a must for Microsoft. OpenAI is probably very happy to raise the stakes as much as possible. So we will see how many billions Microsoft ends up paying for this. Still, is there a world in which we look back 10 years from now and think that we were overvaluing the impact of AI? (For example, this did happen with tablets, when people thought that the iPad would replace "computers"...)

Tablets replaced computers for the most part. They are just a good bit smaller than we expected and have the capability to do phone calls. Mobile is a much bigger market than Desktop these days.

I think this is an insightful take. My first tablet was 7”. Most phones are 6” now. The extra size of a 10” tablet does not buy much extra functionality and we all basically have “phablets” now. And in the end, these big smartphones did end up taking up 80% of the tasks I used to do on my laptop and I don’t hesitate to leave it at home for a trip unless I know I’ll need to do a heavy creative task.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#300

Post by yourusername » Tue, Jan 10, 2023, 4:14 PM UTC

rowanG077 wrote: post #274

TekMol wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main usage of computers even before mobile phones was to browse the web, read and write emails and play games. Web and mail is mostly done on phones now. Not sure about games. The use cases you mention are much smaller. Steve Jobs had the right analogy: Tablets are cars, desktop computers are trucks. Few people use trucks. Most use cars.

There is absolutely no one I know who uses a tablet as their primary work computer. No one. That analogy instantly breaks down because of this. As if everyone drives to work primarily using their trucks. The even more sad thing is that the iPad hardware is absolutely capable to be the primary computer for people. It's simply Apples refusal to allow a real OS to run on it that keeps holding it back.

Young people, the poor, many people in developing countries tend to all be mobile only. I don't have hard figures but i would estimate the number of people who do all their "computing" on a phone or tablet numbers in the billions.