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Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

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Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#281
post #273

Does MS think they have a big moat in these? It won't be long until we have an open version , and although they need a lot of compute , maybe in 1-2 years they ll have come down in size enough to be usable. Is it the training data?

From what I have read with these models it is in-fact the data that can be the most useful piece of the puzzle.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#283

>The AI firm is currently raising funds at a $29 billion valuation. >The tech-industry giant is ready to pay upwards of $10 billion for the acquisition [49%] So Microsoft is undervaluing them, and also soaking up 75% of profit until their investment is paid back? Seems like a bad deal.

They already invested 1 billion in 2019, I think. So maybe they already own part of OpenAI and $10 billion brings their share up to 49% at a $29 billion valuation. Maybe I am wrong about the details here but these numbers do not mean that Microsoft is undervaluing them.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#284
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still more open than Google, Microsoft or DeepMind

In what specific ways? Google and Microsoft both release and contribute to open source software. They both publish vast amounts of research. What does OpenAI do differentially?

They at least give access through paid API to their latest models, which hasn't been the case for Imagen, Parti, LaMDA (google), Flamingo, AlphaGo, AlphaZero, AlphaStar, AlphaCode, AlphaTensor (DeepMind), Make-a-scene, Make-a-video (Meta)

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#286
post #273

Does MS think they have a big moat in these? It won't be long until we have an open version , and although they need a lot of compute , maybe in 1-2 years they ll have come down in size enough to be usable. Is it the training data?

From what I have read with these models it is in-fact the data that can be the most useful piece of the puzzle.

but the data is public datasets, plus some human training that s not the hardest part

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#287

I notice a few people lamenting that OpenAI will no longer be... open. But I have to wonder, in what sense is OpenAI open today ? In 2019, OpenAI transitioned from non-profit to for-profit. At that time, Microsoft invested US$1 billion into the company. OpenAI then announced its intention to commercially license its technologies.

I don't have any answer or opinion on whether the company "is open", I'm not sure how to operationalize that.

But what you can say is that some but not all of their released products are released with code under open source licenses. Eg:

https://github.com/openai/whisper/blob/main/LICENSE (an actual product, to transcribe audio, which it really does extremely well; and it's open source code; released last fall)

So that's one sense in which they produce "open" things today.

I would personally expect that all of their "openness", from the currently free trial (but not open source) cloud-hosted products, to the code released as open source licenses -- are part of a business strategy to get awareness of the technology and of them as a brand, and buy-in, and can/will be changed at any point if it makes business sense. As we increasingly see with so many companies that start out even all-in with open source. (Say, elasticsearch). I think we should assume almost any for-profit company producing open source is in this category.

I think their name is a marketting gimmick to make people assume they are some kind of academic non-profit.

I don't know if it's obvious what a Microsoft purchase might do to those plans/timelines. In some ways MS's deep pockets might mean that free and/or open source offerings can persist longer, extend the metaphorical runway. MS will definitely want to be known as the authority on AI, and making sure people keep seeing your stuff to be impressed by it, and making sure it gets used by enough people to stay "the standard" is how you do that.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#288
post #171

What tech does OpenAI actually have? I thought GPT was most of the smarts and the website was just VC money to burn through cloud resources. I'd think Google can do the same but realize the compute costs just make it too expensive.

I have a guess, just based on some observations. I believe Google is significantly ahead, but has no internal pressure to disrupt their own search product. I think this state of things was fairly clear since around 2015 when key SV VC folks started getting interested in creating their own AI play which became OpenAI. The “open” part of the name was always a reaction against Google which invented these wonders, then stuffed them in a safe deposit box. Microsoft is of course interested because ChatGTP already seems dangerously close to disrupting Google search. And there are whispers that GTP-4 will be another big step forward, maybe even big enough for the eventual ChatGTP-4 to be a clear winner for everyday users vs. search. The compute cost is an issue, but a temporary one since GPU power is still scaling nicely and there’s continued progress on getting model inference to use smaller compute budgets.

If anyone was actually awake at the wheel at Google they should be afraid.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the path to monetization for Microsoft for OpenAI/ChatGPT?

Adding it to Bing could be an actual differentiator, which has been announced. MS also has a lot of speech tech, so making a search engine an actual spoken chat could possibly be huge. That's just for Bing.

Yes but MS doesn't have a phone or and phone operating system. They could do deals with Apple like Google does to make it the primary search and or have Apple ask the user which engine they like to use on set up.

There's a video on YouTube with a UK reporter having a 20 minute conversation with ChatGPT ..I wanted to use that but I guess it's a private app created by Open AI.

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