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Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

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Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#252
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tablets replaced computers for the most part. They are just a good bit smaller than we expected and have the capability to do phone calls. Mobile is a much bigger market than Desktop these days.

This is a pretty bad take. The mobile market is much larger precisely because they AREN'T computers. They are mobile companions. But you don't do the same things on a computer and on a mobile phone. Who edits their movies on a phone? Who codes on a phone? Who writes their PhD thesis on a phone? You will be hard pressed to find professionals who do these things. Because a phone is not a computer.

The main usage of computers even before mobile phones was to browse the web, read and write emails and play games. Web and mail is mostly done on phones now. Not sure about games.

The use cases you mention are much smaller.

Steve Jobs had the right analogy: Tablets are cars, desktop computers are trucks. Few people use trucks. Most use cars.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#253
post #169

I notice a few people lamenting that OpenAI will no longer be... open. But I have to wonder, in what sense is OpenAI open today ? In 2019, OpenAI transitioned from non-profit to for-profit. At that time, Microsoft invested US$1 billion into the company. OpenAI then announced its intention to commercially license its technologies.

Still more open than Google, Microsoft or DeepMind

More open than Google and Microsoft?

There is loads of open source I can download that Google and Microsoft created and released. What has OpenAI ever released?

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#254
post #192

$10 Bilion for the non-ruling half of OpenAI? Impresssive. As a reference Microsoft paid $7.2 billion for the entire handset business of Nokia (which was floundering at the time, but still).

What's the path to monetization for Microsoft for OpenAI/ChatGPT?

Adding it to Bing could be an actual differentiator, which has been announced. MS also has a lot of speech tech, so making a search engine an actual spoken chat could possibly be huge. That's just for Bing.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#256

Question to AI/ML folks : Is there no comparable open source model? Is the future going to be controlled by big corporations who own the models themselves? If models are so computationally intensive to produce does it mean than the more computational power a company has the better its models will be?

The closest open source contender is BLOOM: https://huggingface.co/bigscience/bloom. It has an almost identical architecture to GPT-3 (hence, to ChatGPT), and in particular the same number of parameters (175B). It was also trained on a similar amount of data, as far as we can know. Still, it's not like you can just "download it and run it", even just to _load_ the model into memory you need ~400GB of memory, to run it at any decent speed you need a lot of GPUs, so it's not really like consumer hardware. And the process to train it cost about 2 to 4 million $, so replicating it is definitely not for everybody. But also not just for "big corporations"...

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#257

I notice a few people lamenting that OpenAI will no longer be... open. But I have to wonder, in what sense is OpenAI open today ? In 2019, OpenAI transitioned from non-profit to for-profit. At that time, Microsoft invested US$1 billion into the company. OpenAI then announced its intention to commercially license its technologies.

EDIT: A reply points out this message was wrong, I was accusing AlphaGo and AlphaZero of being closed, but that was Deepmind, not OpenAI.

[deleted]

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#258

I notice a few people lamenting that OpenAI will no longer be... open. But I have to wonder, in what sense is OpenAI open today ? In 2019, OpenAI transitioned from non-profit to for-profit. At that time, Microsoft invested US$1 billion into the company. OpenAI then announced its intention to commercially license its technologies.

EDIT: A reply points out this message was wrong, I was accusing AlphaGo and AlphaZero of being closed, but that was Deepmind, not OpenAI.

AlphaGo and AlphaZero are Google/Deepmind, not OpenAI. They've released papers, and there's a model that reproduces the paper.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leela_Zero

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#260

>The AI firm is currently raising funds at a $29 billion valuation. >The tech-industry giant is ready to pay upwards of $10 billion for the acquisition [49%] So Microsoft is undervaluing them, and also soaking up 75% of profit until their investment is paid back? Seems like a bad deal.

I suspect in this market the former number was aspirational and the latter number actually materialized. A 66% discount to aspiration is about what all the other high-growth speculative companies took. Maybe they were in a tight spot financially?
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