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Stephen Hawking to turn 70, defying disease

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Re: Stephen Hawking to turn 70, defying disease

#71

Post by ams6110 »

jonnathanson wrote: post #19
jsdalton wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My view is perhaps even more cynical than yours: I think his longevity is primarily due to luck. He also, if I understand correctly, has a different variant of ALS that doesn't progress as quickly. While money might have been a necessary precursor to his achieving such longevity (I doubt he would have made it this far had he not been wealthy), ALS has taken the lives of many, many people poor and rich alike. My stepf…

I suspect you're right. Money isn't the issue here; it's luck of the draw. My best friend's father died of ALS two years ago, and like your stepfather, he was very successful, wealthy, and motivated. He was also professionally and personally productive up until the last second. As I recall, his disease progressed like a step function whose "steps" were of indeterminate length. He'd lose some functionality, then remai…

Another vote for this. My mom died of ALS, diagnosed in November at age 75, died the following August. In retrospect she was showing symptoms maybe 12–18 months earlier but the early symptoms in her case were just a gradual decline in strength that we attributed to aging. Not that anything can really be done; there are one or two drugs that have a very minimal (but statistically measurable) benefit, but they are very expensive and while they may slightly extend your life (we are talking perhaps a month or two on average) they don't improve your function.

After her diagnosis she attended a few support group meetings, and it was striking at how the disease progressed differently in different people. One man had been diagnosed years earlier and was still able to do work around his farm and house, he seemed almost normal. Others were in wheelchairs and could barely talk, and had been normal only a year earlier.

I wouldn't call Hawking lucky as the disease is absolutely a terrible thing, but given that he has it, his remarkable longevity does seem to be on the lucky end of the statistical distribution.

Re: Stephen Hawking to turn 70, defying disease

#72

Post by ams6110 »

giberson wrote: post #5

Hate to raise a cynical tone, but in all likelihood his his longevity is mostly due to him having money. I expect, that in most cases patients with similar motor neurone diseases, their money simply runs out--unable to afford ongoing medications, care and new treatments, they die from the disease they simply can't afford to treat.

You are wrong. There is very little that medicine can do for ALS sufferers. With more research, perhaps this will change, but for now money has very little bearing on the outcome of this disease.

Re: Stephen Hawking to turn 70, defying disease

#73

Post by shingen »

parfe wrote: post #14
giberson wrote: post #5

Hate to raise a cynical tone, but in all likelihood his his longevity is mostly due to him having money. I expect, that in most cases patients with similar motor neurone diseases, their money simply runs out--unable to afford ongoing medications, care and new treatments, they die from the disease they simply can't afford to treat.

>in all likelihood his his longevity is mostly due to him having money. I think you mean "Socialized Medicine" "I wouldn't be here today if it were not for the NHS," [Hawking] said. "I have received a large amount of high-quality treatment without which I would not have survived...." http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/08/12/stephen-hawking-ent...

Is that why the NHS is collapsing and has been forced to begin privatizing itself?

Re: Stephen Hawking to turn 70, defying disease

#74

Post by shingen »

Is there a good reason why he isn't the intense focus of technology dedicated to reading brain signals to action results through a computer + display?

There are already functional systems that paralyzed people have used to communicate through on-screen selections in that manner. Surely Stephen Hawking can acquire the technology and afford the upkeep. Hell, surely MIT or someone out there would build a custom rig for him and focus on constantly improving it to get more productivity out of his marvelous brain while he's still here.

Re: Stephen Hawking to turn 70, defying disease

#75

Post by learc83 »

veidr wrote: post #69
paulhauggis wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Yea, you don't need money to be healthy in a civilized country." You just need enough other people's money. "Someday, America might catch on, but I'm not holding my breath." Why is it that anyone with any kind of money that needs urgent care comes to the US? I will give you a hint: it's not because of nationalized health care. Our system isn't perfect and is expensive, but in my opinion, it's the best in the world (…

Our system isn't perfect and is expensive, but in my opinion, it's the best in the world (in terms of quality doctors, surgery, and hospitals). That's probably true for the best doctors, surgery, and hospitals in the USA. But it isn't true on average. The average hospital in the US isn't as good (well-equipped, well-staffed) as the average hospital in, say, Japan. It also isn't true for most people -- even those with…

>But it isn't true on average.

From the statistics I've seen that's not true. The lowest 20% may have worse care than the lowest 20% in other developed countries, but the average American has access to the best health care in the world. Just look at American cancer survival rates--they are the highest in the world.

>The average hospital in the US isn't as good (well-equipped, well-staffed)

Now that's just plain wrong, the vast majority of hospitals in the US are incredibly well equipped.

Re: Stephen Hawking to turn 70, defying disease

#76

Post by chunkyslink »

jonnathanson wrote: post #19
jsdalton wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My view is perhaps even more cynical than yours: I think his longevity is primarily due to luck. He also, if I understand correctly, has a different variant of ALS that doesn't progress as quickly. While money might have been a necessary precursor to his achieving such longevity (I doubt he would have made it this far had he not been wealthy), ALS has taken the lives of many, many people poor and rich alike. My stepf…

I suspect you're right. Money isn't the issue here; it's luck of the draw. My best friend's father died of ALS two years ago, and like your stepfather, he was very successful, wealthy, and motivated. He was also professionally and personally productive up until the last second. As I recall, his disease progressed like a step function whose "steps" were of indeterminate length. He'd lose some functionality, then remai…

> Money isn't the issue here

You are correct. Health care is free in the UK so money is irrelevant.

Re: Stephen Hawking to turn 70, defying disease

#78

Post by ErrantX »

paulhauggis wrote: post #51
wisty wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

North Koreans think their country is the best too. The US health system sucks. The US spends more public money on health, let alone private money, and still has a crappy system. The reality is, medicine is something that any idiot can manage. Get a doctor and some nurses, put them in a clean building, and give them a few million to buy machines and stocks. Even the government can do it, and the government does it at…

"Get a doctor and some nurses, put them in a clean building, and give them a few million to buy machines and stocks. Even the government can do it, and the government does it at a lower price, because they aren't looking to rip off desperate people." They may not be looking to "rip off desperate people", but they sure don't know how to efficiently spend money (example: every single government-run system in the histor…

In the UK, private medical insurance comes in a broader range of costs - and generally costs less than insurance in the US.

Re: Stephen Hawking to turn 70, defying disease

#79

Post by pmarin »

paulhauggis wrote: post #38
gnaritas wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea, you don't need money to be healthy in a civilized country. Someday, America might catch on, but I'm not holding my breath.

"Yea, you don't need money to be healthy in a civilized country." You just need enough other people's money. "Someday, America might catch on, but I'm not holding my breath." Why is it that anyone with any kind of money that needs urgent care comes to the US? I will give you a hint: it's not because of nationalized health care. Our system isn't perfect and is expensive, but in my opinion, it's the best in the world (…

In my opinion the best health system in the world is the one who safe more lives, no the one who safe the lives who can pay for.

Re: Stephen Hawking to turn 70, defying disease

#80

Post by veidr »

learc83 wrote: post #75
veidr wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our system isn't perfect and is expensive, but in my opinion, it's the best in the world (in terms of quality doctors, surgery, and hospitals). That's probably true for the best doctors, surgery, and hospitals in the USA. But it isn't true on average. The average hospital in the US isn't as good (well-equipped, well-staffed) as the average hospital in, say, Japan. It also isn't true for most people -- even those with…

>But it isn't true on average. From the statistics I've seen that's not true. The lowest 20% may have worse care than the lowest 20% in other developed countries, but the average American has access to the best health care in the world. Just look at American cancer survival rates--they are the highest in the world. >The average hospital in the US isn't as good (well-equipped, well-staffed) Now that's just plain wrong…

Well, I have to ask: what the hell statistics have you seen?

A baby born in the USA is almost three times more likely to die at or immediately following birth than in Japan. [1]

Your cancer stat is true for prostate and breast cancer, but Japan has the best rates for some other types of cancers [2], and importantly Japanese people actually develop much less cancer[2.1], one reason for which is much better preventative medical care (for average people); the average Japanese person sees a doctor three times more often than the average Americans, and have three times more MRI scans[3].

Speaking of MRI machines, Japan has twice as many of them per capita than does the USA[4], and routinely uses them for preventive care. I've lived in both, and my government health insurance in Japan routinely covers MRI scans for preventive and diagnostic purpose, while my employer-suplied HMO in the states refused all MRI scans until actual debilitation had already occured.

A colleague just had a baby here, and not only is the care better than the USA (more visits, less waiting, better outcomes for typical people), health care for the baby is free until the baby is 15. Another reason that baby will see a health care professional more often.

I used to believe that American health care was the best, too. We hear it all the time growing up. And we spend so much. But then I moved abroad, and it turned out everything I thought I knew was wrong.

It's just like saying "American education is the best in the world!"

Sure it is... at M.I.T. and Stanford, maybe. Across the vast majority of the population in public schools? Not so much.

[1]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infant_mortality#Infant_mortali...

[2]: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/7510121.stm

[2.1]: http://www.wcrf-uk.org/research/cancer_statistics/world_canc...

[3]: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2009/09/fac...

[4]: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=8962630...

EDITS: fixed my typo that gave USA a worse infant mortality rate than Somalia, and rephrased a couple things more clearly. Added education analogy.

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