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Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

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Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#91
post #73

I don't quite get the appeal of replacing a search engine with ChatGPT. It's certainly useful for many use cases [1], but when you're searching for information you likely want some trust signals attached to that information. When you land on a website that aggregates information (Reddit, Wikipedia, Stack Overflow, et cetera) you have many signals on display that helps you evaluate the quality and trustworthiness: upv…

One example which shows usefulness of 'ChatGPT style' search. I'm in the market for a new car but have a particular requirement about size of the vehicle (width, length) due to parking constraints at my location. Instead of going to Google, I went to ChatGPT and asked it to compare two different models in terms of size - these two were within my budget and style. The answer that came about was exactly that I was look…

Part of it is lack of monetization and advertising. We have forgotten what technology is capable of if it's not overrun by business people.

For now no one paied ChatGPT to "recommend" you one over the other or engaged in SEO to game the system.

Once that happens it will just as trustworthy as a Google search and smart people will develop a sense of mistrusting the system just like they would a smooth talking sleazy car sales person, who is also a subject matter expert.

Unless we are directly paying Microsoft I don't see a way around it and probably not even then.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#92

I don't quite get the appeal of replacing a search engine with ChatGPT. It's certainly useful for many use cases [1], but when you're searching for information you likely want some trust signals attached to that information. When you land on a website that aggregates information (Reddit, Wikipedia, Stack Overflow, et cetera) you have many signals on display that helps you evaluate the quality and trustworthiness: upv…

This is one of the situations where "you are the product" applies.

They would prefer to produce an inline response because it keeps you from going to another website. This way they don't have to share you with a third party. Which ultimately means they can show you more ads or have more time to find some other way to monetize you.

Remember, search engines have been employing this strategy for some time with a variety of inline responses to many searches. The open web is generally the least profitable thing they can direct you to. ChatGPT simply represents an expansion of the business strategy that's already in place when you do a currency conversion or ask for hotel rates or ask a question that has FAQ structured data associated with it on some website. All about keeping you on the page/in network for as long as possible.

It doesn't matter if the classical notion of web search is better or is what you really want. They will invest in this model instead if it's more profitable (and to be fair they will attempt to make this model better so that it compares favorably to web search for users, this just isn't the primary goal).

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#93
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are open source / OS model-based projects competing with OpenAI’s text generation. At least one, NovelAI, also has a Stable Diffusion fork incorporated into their paid product. At least so far none of them are close to what’s been achieved with ChatGPT, and that could in itself be driving some of the hype. ChatGPT was probably more impressive to me on the first impression being familiar with the limitations of…

I think the problem is time. To replicate the OpenAI RLHF architecture, they need their own high-quality dataset, which takes time to create. Without details about the hyperparameters, RL architecture, and omitted steps, they need to test a lot of things, which takes time and money. It requires more resources than it took SD to replicate DALL-E 2, which took months and was an easier task.

There is Open Assistant by LAION (WiP): https://github.com/LAION-AI/Open-Assistant

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#94
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One example which shows usefulness of 'ChatGPT style' search. I'm in the market for a new car but have a particular requirement about size of the vehicle (width, length) due to parking constraints at my location. Instead of going to Google, I went to ChatGPT and asked it to compare two different models in terms of size - these two were within my budget and style. The answer that came about was exactly that I was look…

Part of it is lack of monetization and advertising. We have forgotten what technology is capable of if it's not overrun by business people. For now no one paied ChatGPT to "recommend" you one over the other or engaged in SEO to game the system. Once that happens it will just as trustworthy as a Google search and smart people will develop a sense of mistrusting the system just like they would a smooth talking sleazy c…

That is extreme view.

Why not a link at the bottom which takes to the identified car company website, where I get to see 360 degree view along with all other jazz that the company's marketing spent millions on; and they would be thankful to send some hundreds to ChatGPT way.

This is exactly how Google AdWords started. To your point yes, it may go Google way, but there is hope (atleast in the initial years) it may not.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ChatGPT Caused 'Code Red' at Google: https://www.cnet.com/tech/services-and-software/chatgpt-caus...

ChatGPT is one of those few technologies that: 1. Competes against and destroys Google's primary profit center (search). 2. Google cannot copy, improve, and give away for free to use as a moat without severe collateral damage to itself. There's very little incentive to use a search engine to find an ad ridden website to answer a question when one can ask ChatGPT directly for a much better response. Google is rightful…

So who owns the content that a chatGPT search engine serves? Can you just copy content from all over the web without giving back traffic?

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#96
post #81
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One example which shows usefulness of 'ChatGPT style' search. I'm in the market for a new car but have a particular requirement about size of the vehicle (width, length) due to parking constraints at my location. Instead of going to Google, I went to ChatGPT and asked it to compare two different models in terms of size - these two were within my budget and style. The answer that came about was exactly that I was look…

Was it factually correct or AI hallucination though? This seems like it would be important.

It was correct.. was easily verifiable.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not all of the internet. I just tried "What is the most energy efficient electric vehicle available in 2022?" What I thought would be a softball question. I got: "I'm sorry, but I don't have any information about specific electric vehicles that will be available in 2022. In general, the most energy efficient electric vehicles are those that have a large battery pack and a powerful electric motor, which allows them to…

openai has specifically said it hasn't been trained with recent data. what did you want it to say?

I expected it to give me the most efficient electric vehicle on the market in 2022 in terms of miles/kwh rating. Not that hard.

As for recent data, I tried the same question with 2020 and got the following:

    A: There are a number of electric vehicles that were    available in 2020 that are known for their energy efficiency. Here are a few examples:

    Tesla Model 3: The Tesla Model 3 is a compact sedan that has a range of up to 358 miles on a single charge. It has a powerful electric motor and a large battery pack, which makes it one of the most energy efficient electric vehicles on the market.

    Nissan Leaf: The Nissan Leaf is a compact hatchback that has a range of up to 226 miles on a single charge. It is equipped with a powerful electric motor and a large battery pack, which makes it one of the most energy efficient electric vehicles in its class.

    Chevrolet Bolt: The Chevrolet Bolt is a compact hatchback that has a range of up to 259 miles on a single charge. It has a powerful electric motor and a large battery pack, which makes it one of the most energy efficient electric vehicles on the market.

    These are just a few examples, and there are many other electric vehicles that were available in 2020 that are known for their energy efficiency
Once again, not impressive in terms of information. It simply says they are "one of the most energy efficient" without quantifying it in any way.

Are you really going to be a ChatGPT stan?

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#98

I'm seeing a lot of responses that see ChatGPT replacing Google, and it's unclear to me how? It can replace queries like "what's the tallest mountain in France", but that's not really a profitable query for Google. Whereas it's unclear to me how it replaces "best vegetarian restaurants in Gastown". It can string together a coherent statement, but then I have to go search to see whether it actually recommended vegetar…

Have you used it? Start working on anything. Next time you go to Google how to do something, or want to name something, or want to convert formats, or a dozen other things, just ask GPT. Say “give me 5 cool names for this”. Any task. “Show me a garden plot given plants from this time of year.” “Tell me about different types of LLCs and the tradeoffs.” “This code isn’t working what’s wrong.” You’ll quickly be able to…

How about this softball question I just tried?

Q: "What was the most energy efficient electric vehicle available in 2022?"

A: I'm sorry, but I don't have any information about specific electric vehicles that will be available in 2022. In general, the most energy efficient electric vehicles are those that have a large battery pack and a powerful electric motor, which allows them to travel long distances on a single charge. Some of the most energy efficient electric vehicles on the market today include the Tesla Model S, the Nissan Leaf, and the Chevrolet Bolt. It is possible that even more efficient electric vehicles will be available in 2022, but I don't have any specific information about them.

Yeah, mind blowing. I especially chuckle at "This code isn't working what's wrong". Maybe it can help with CS 101 homework and hobby projects. Even if I had permission to upload my company's code, that consists of hundreds of thousands of lines of Java, Python, Perl, C#, C++, and SQL that runs on wildfly server clusters and oracle databases, spread over dozens of repos, all knitted together with thousands of lines of build scripts and gitlab pipelines. Oh and its only partially documented. Oh and there are contractural requirements, so the program will have to understand the contracts and the accepted interpretations of the requirements before making recommendations. This thing is not going to solve even the relatively trivial error I fixed today because it wouldn't be visible from any syntactical analysis. It would have to have sophisticated understanding of the software architecture itself, and stand up a duplicate system and run specific tests to verify that the problem is what it is. It would also lack context as to program objectives, because the problem wasn't strictly a malfunction, it was a vestigial feature that was supposed to have been removed but was still erroneously being deployed and interfering with its replacement.

And my company is hardly unique in that regard, nor is our codebase the largest. ChatGPT is a consumer demo; which is fine. But if I showed you a newer, faster, better speedboat would you be talking about how it's going to alter container shipping and naval warfare?

Maybe this is the start of something huge, but we have no idea what the backend of this thing looks like to judge what its potential actually is. Everyone's just slapping their wildest AI sci-fi fantasies on it the same way every new harebrained green tech with an impressive CG render is going to save the world from climate change and Crypto is totally going to replace all traditional finance and even the dollar itself. A few months ago I literally had someone counter my argument against crypto with "but your argument doesn't account for FTX, they solve a lot of what you're pointing out!", another situation where people were projecting what they wanted to see onto a black box. Even rich people and companies with lots of money. Don't make the same mistake here, wait until it does something real.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#99

I'm seeing a lot of responses that see ChatGPT replacing Google, and it's unclear to me how? It can replace queries like "what's the tallest mountain in France", but that's not really a profitable query for Google. Whereas it's unclear to me how it replaces "best vegetarian restaurants in Gastown". It can string together a coherent statement, but then I have to go search to see whether it actually recommended vegetar…

Have you used it? Start working on anything. Next time you go to Google how to do something, or want to name something, or want to convert formats, or a dozen other things, just ask GPT. Say “give me 5 cool names for this”. Any task. “Show me a garden plot given plants from this time of year.” “Tell me about different types of LLCs and the tradeoffs.” “This code isn’t working what’s wrong.” You’ll quickly be able to…

That's not search though. Those features will thrive when users pay for the usage.

General search for anything that involves competing businesses will begin getting gamed immediately and any providers need to be better than Google in preventing it or suffer the same fate but with with full sentences.

Example:

How can the AI get enough info to answer: "Is Frank's Garage or Auto Joe better value for money if I need my radiator fixed".

A generic explanation of what "good value" means is utterly useless. So is just restating their ads.

It might beat google because of the interface but it won't revolutionize search on it's own.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

openai has specifically said it hasn't been trained with recent data. what did you want it to say?

I expected it to give me the most efficient electric vehicle on the market in 2022 in terms of miles/kwh rating. Not that hard. As for recent data, I tried the same question with 2020 and got the following: A: There are a number of electric vehicles that were available in 2020 that are known for their energy efficiency. Here are a few examples: Tesla Model 3: The Tesla Model 3 is a compact sedan that has a range of u…

your first question to it didn't even make sense, since it was asking an impossible question for it. the second answer seems... fine? what is it you're looking for? most efficient isn't a single definition.
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