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Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

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Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#71
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The brand in general is incredibly weak now. When I use Google it feels cluttered with ads and useless results. Using GPT was such a relief. I use it 75% versus Google 25% for data science hobby projects.

Google, the new AltaVista

Between your mention of AltaVista and that thread on amber monitors, I’m really feeling my age.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#72
post #59
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the problem is time. To replicate the OpenAI RLHF architecture, they need their own high-quality dataset, which takes time to create. Without details about the hyperparameters, RL architecture, and omitted steps, they need to test a lot of things, which takes time and money. It requires more resources than it took SD to replicate DALL-E 2, which took months and was an easier task.

Check out Constitutional AI from Anthropic. They automated "RLHF" by simply writing a few rules.

Thanks, just skimmed the paper, I think that "they automated RLHF" statement is maybe too strong here, there is still manual process but it seems like they optimized away a lot of manual labeling work.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#73

I don't quite get the appeal of replacing a search engine with ChatGPT. It's certainly useful for many use cases [1], but when you're searching for information you likely want some trust signals attached to that information. When you land on a website that aggregates information (Reddit, Wikipedia, Stack Overflow, et cetera) you have many signals on display that helps you evaluate the quality and trustworthiness: upv…

One example which shows usefulness of 'ChatGPT style' search.

I'm in the market for a new car but have a particular requirement about size of the vehicle (width, length) due to parking constraints at my location.

Instead of going to Google, I went to ChatGPT and asked it to compare two different models in terms of size - these two were within my budget and style.

The answer that came about was exactly that I was looking for; it felt like some family vehicle expert nicely, helpfully and with empathy explaining the size difference without throwing all mm/cm from the get-go. It started by saying something to the effect: Overall Model1 is slightly larger than Model2, but lengthwise it is more... (I don't remember how exactly it went and too lazy to regenerate the result and paste it here).

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#74

I don't quite get the appeal of replacing a search engine with ChatGPT. It's certainly useful for many use cases [1], but when you're searching for information you likely want some trust signals attached to that information. When you land on a website that aggregates information (Reddit, Wikipedia, Stack Overflow, et cetera) you have many signals on display that helps you evaluate the quality and trustworthiness: upv…

This is missing the forest for the trees. Everything you mention is just regular old programming and fixable. The impressive part is the internet compressed into 4GB. This is just the beginning and progress is going extremely quickly.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#75
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ChatGPT is one of those few technologies that: 1. Competes against and destroys Google's primary profit center (search). 2. Google cannot copy, improve, and give away for free to use as a moat without severe collateral damage to itself. There's very little incentive to use a search engine to find an ad ridden website to answer a question when one can ask ChatGPT directly for a much better response. Google is rightful…

On the other hand, this could be a huge opportunity for Google. 1. Google already has their own internal equivalent of ChatGPT [1]. They haven't deployed it publicly yet, probably out of fear of bad PR. 2. Unlike search ads, which you can block or ignore, chat ads will be woven into the conversation at opportune times. 3. A chat format means users will spend more time on Google, rather than clicking on a link and lea…

Which in turn means that the adblock equivalent in the brave new world will be smaller, less effective models that are community- or self-hosted.

Or models that run in the browser to detect and remove product placements from the text itself. Though that seems very unlikely.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#76

I'm seeing a lot of responses that see ChatGPT replacing Google, and it's unclear to me how? It can replace queries like "what's the tallest mountain in France", but that's not really a profitable query for Google. Whereas it's unclear to me how it replaces "best vegetarian restaurants in Gastown". It can string together a coherent statement, but then I have to go search to see whether it actually recommended vegetar…

"best vegetarian restaurants in Gastown": the results actually seemed pretty good:

    The Acorn
    The Naam
    Chau Veggie Express
    The Essential
    The Wilder Snail
I mean, yeah, it doesn't cite sources. So if you want to check the results you have to do that with a traditional search engine. But that will only be an issue while the results aren't good enough to trust by default.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#77
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ChatGPT is one of those few technologies that: 1. Competes against and destroys Google's primary profit center (search). 2. Google cannot copy, improve, and give away for free to use as a moat without severe collateral damage to itself. There's very little incentive to use a search engine to find an ad ridden website to answer a question when one can ask ChatGPT directly for a much better response. Google is rightful…

On the other hand, this could be a huge opportunity for Google. 1. Google already has their own internal equivalent of ChatGPT [1]. They haven't deployed it publicly yet, probably out of fear of bad PR. 2. Unlike search ads, which you can block or ignore, chat ads will be woven into the conversation at opportune times. 3. A chat format means users will spend more time on Google, rather than clicking on a link and lea…

(3) happening destroys Google's current business model. Google's entire operation is funded by increasing the amount of times users click on a link and leave.

There's little value in simply showing an ad, all the value is in the conversion. Yes, Google is well positioned to destroy that conversion rate, but that comes at great harm to itself. Display ads go for 1/10 the price of a search ad, and I'd wager text would be worth even less than images, and I'd bet the tolerable amount of ads per query is significantly higher for search as well.

Is Google willing to bet the house that (2) is a better business model than the clicking described in (3)?

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#78

I can't imagine using ChatGPT for anything, personally. As a society we have grown physically obese on high calorie, sugar-packed foods combined with a sedentary lifestyle. Seems like we're about to become mentally obese when we no longer have to use our minds read or write and can just be spoon-fed AI generated words, music, and video. We will become a society of fat, drooling simpletons sitting in recliners consumi…

Some counterpoints. 1. People have been saying "this tech will make people stupid" for ages. And it's kind of true, but it's not clear that it's bad. Yes, when technology can do things we stop learning to do those things because it stops mattering. If it does still matter we would still learn. 2. I've had good conversations with ChatGPT. I didn't ask it to solve a problem, I asked it to describe algorithms, give me i…

Bit of a side note, but while I agree on #2, I'm not too keen on what happens when it gets good enough that you're no longer the one using it to bypass people, your (former) boss is instead...

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#79
post #74

I don't quite get the appeal of replacing a search engine with ChatGPT. It's certainly useful for many use cases [1], but when you're searching for information you likely want some trust signals attached to that information. When you land on a website that aggregates information (Reddit, Wikipedia, Stack Overflow, et cetera) you have many signals on display that helps you evaluate the quality and trustworthiness: upv…

This is missing the forest for the trees. Everything you mention is just regular old programming and fixable. The impressive part is the internet compressed into 4GB. This is just the beginning and progress is going extremely quickly.

Are you saying the ChatGPT model is only 4GB?

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#80

I don't quite get the appeal of replacing a search engine with ChatGPT. It's certainly useful for many use cases [1], but when you're searching for information you likely want some trust signals attached to that information. When you land on a website that aggregates information (Reddit, Wikipedia, Stack Overflow, et cetera) you have many signals on display that helps you evaluate the quality and trustworthiness: upv…

You’ve just made an argument that Google’s automated crawling and search algorithms can never disrupt human-curated directories like Yahoo.
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