Is Elon Musk still a stakeholder in OpenAI? If Microsoft buys it for, say, $10 billion, how much will he end up earning?
Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023
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Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023
#42Does OpenAI have anything resembling "special sauce", or are they just a critical mass of ML engineers with good funding, loose constraints and the word "open" in their name? If the former, a buyout seems like the obvious next step, antitrust notwithstanding. If the latter, a buyout would kill two of the company strengths - "open"-ness (as weak as it is with the Microsoft tie-ins, it is still notionally a selling poi…
Huggingface has been doing actual open source AI for awhile now and they don't even need to put it in their name.
ClosedAI hasn't ever released their NLP model weights. They don't deserve to call themselves "Open"
Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hard disagree, I think 2 is actually a genius move after major fail with dall-e 2 pricing model. In general, they are probably looking for stable diffusion like adoption curve, but unless they have an offering people can use for free that is flexible enough (giving users just a prompt box is not flexible enough), someone else is going to eat their lunch on LLM's too, when you won't need colab to run them.
I don't understand: many more people would use it for free in Bing/Word/Cortana than on a website that nobody used previously.
True, they would. But there is a limit to how much you can get out of it with just a text box. Just look at dalle2 vs sd - even though dall-e is much more capable and clearly better one out of the two, sd gives much more consistent results if you know what you are doing. Because you have full access to model we now have novel ways of inlining some state to pieces of text to assign importance, whole algebra done on embeddings etc. When similar thing happens to llm's nobody will care about the text box in ms products.
Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023
#44This might sound naive, but wasn't the founding principle behind OpenAI that it should prevent powers around AI being concentrated in the hands of nations or big companies? I really hope OpenAI won't get acquired.
Sam Altman addresses that when he was asked that question in 'How I Built This' Podcast.
Essentially: OpenAI did not realize the massive scale they needed for them to be successful. When they realized this, they could not raise any funding as 'non-profit'. They asked govt, who did not want to fund it, and other sources, at the end they did not have any other recourse.
Sam Altaman says: 90% of funding was needed for compute power, but also was needed for things like buying dataset and then to pay employee so that they can compete with likes of Google to retain them. If they would not have done this, then very soon they would have become irreverent.
So to retain the earlier intent (for greater good) they put in bunch of 'safety features' around funding - Ex. 'Profit Cap' - investors would get only certain amount of profit and after that the profit would be distributed to the world (in some way). Similarly, there were few other 'safety feature he talked about.
The relevant portion starts at 32:39 mark in the following podcast: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3oOX1QHLPw9uvLL5LmBk28?si=s...
Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023
#45Is Elon Musk still a stakeholder in OpenAI? If Microsoft buys it for, say, $10 billion, how much will he end up earning?
I would be interested in this too. All of the wealthy people get the best deals!
Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023
#46This might sound naive, but wasn't the founding principle behind OpenAI that it should prevent powers around AI being concentrated in the hands of nations or big companies? I really hope OpenAI won't get acquired.
The founding principle was to have a thin veil of "academic research" around their work so they could ignore intellectual property laws while they bootstrap.
Bingo. This does not bode well for their future which will be full of legal costs and result in content creators removing their content from publicly available methods that can easily be scraped by these data aggregators.
Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023
#47>AI similarly has powerful network effects. OpenAI's current business model is genius. By allowing free usage of chatGPT, they are getting millions of "free" employees, all actively and eagerly providing more data and more training to the system. I never buy this. This story is repeated so often in so many places. You hear it about Tesla all the time "Their dataset is so big because they have all those cars out there…
This is an old narrative focused on the foibles of supervised learning. The data acquired by chatGPT and Tesla is extremely valuable even while unlabeled. It can be used for pretraining, both self and unsupervised. I guarantee you that having larger and more diverse datasets for pretraining provides a lot of advantages.
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Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023
#48>AI similarly has powerful network effects. OpenAI's current business model is genius. By allowing free usage of chatGPT, they are getting millions of "free" employees, all actively and eagerly providing more data and more training to the system. I never buy this. This story is repeated so often in so many places. You hear it about Tesla all the time "Their dataset is so big because they have all those cars out there…
This is an old narrative focused on the foibles of supervised learning. The data acquired by chatGPT and Tesla is extremely valuable even while unlabeled. It can be used for pretraining, both self and unsupervised. I guarantee you that having larger and more diverse datasets for pretraining provides a lot of advantages.
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Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023
#49I usually assume OpenAI is actually Microsoft already, as they are one of the lead investors and from what I've heard quite involved there. It's kind of a trick to appear "open" and not tainted by the Microsoft brand but in the end it's Microsoft already
Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
I doubt the data OpenAI receives from the usage of ChatGPT is even remotely close to the amount of data Google or Facebook handles that could be used to build a better language model. They have advantage over other AI startups, but I don't think they have much of an advantage over companies like Google and Facebook which both have massive amounts of data, money, and computing power. Which at the current state is the…
Agreed. Google processes about 8.5 billion search queries daily. Conversational voice assistants process about 120 million queries daily.
> Agreed. Google processes about 8.5 billion search queries daily.
Misstyped queries of mostly the same stuff. Google's real data advantage here is gmail. Billions of real conversations between real people.