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Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023

thoughtfulbits.me

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Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023

#22
post #14

I think OpenAI made two strategic blunders: 1. Publishing the Dall-E papers and pre-trained CLIP weights. This inspired Stable Diffusion/MidJourney, reducing the amount of time OpenAI had for their Dall-E service to get established by maybe a year. During that time, they could've gained long-term customers, generated some revenue, and established partnerships with Adobe and other graphics software makers. Now they're…

I assume it also allowed them to get a lot of testing with people pushing its limits in different ways.

Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023

#23

This might sound naive, but wasn't the founding principle behind OpenAI that it should prevent powers around AI being concentrated in the hands of nations or big companies? I really hope OpenAI won't get acquired.

The founding principle was to have a thin veil of "academic research" around their work so they could ignore intellectual property laws while they bootstrap.

Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023

#24
post #20
post #14

I think OpenAI made two strategic blunders: 1. Publishing the Dall-E papers and pre-trained CLIP weights. This inspired Stable Diffusion/MidJourney, reducing the amount of time OpenAI had for their Dall-E service to get established by maybe a year. During that time, they could've gained long-term customers, generated some revenue, and established partnerships with Adobe and other graphics software makers. Now they're…

> I think OpenAI made two strategic blunders to quote the "Introducing OpenAI" article from 2015, dec 11: "OpenAI is a non-profit artificial intelligence research company. Our goal is to advance digital intelligence in the way that is most likely to benefit humanity as a whole, unconstrained by a need to generate financial return. Since our research is free from financial obligations, we can better focus on a positiv…

I believe OpenAI is for profit since 2019 now. See https://techcrunch.com/2019/03/11/openai-shifts-from-nonprof...

Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023

#25
Microsoft lacks philosophy and imagination, so even if OpenAI were acquired by Microsoft, I don't think it would make the use of Microsoft products more valuable.

In fact, all Microsoft did with DALL-E was to display AI-generated images in Bing's image search. Who would want to use such a feature?

Also, history has proven that companies acquired by Microsoft, such as Skype and Nokia, are corrupt.

Therefore, I hope OpenAI will be an independent organization.

Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023

#26
post #19
post #14

I think OpenAI made two strategic blunders: 1. Publishing the Dall-E papers and pre-trained CLIP weights. This inspired Stable Diffusion/MidJourney, reducing the amount of time OpenAI had for their Dall-E service to get established by maybe a year. During that time, they could've gained long-term customers, generated some revenue, and established partnerships with Adobe and other graphics software makers. Now they're…

>Publishing the Dall-E papers Isn't stable diffusion implementation based on imagen paper?

It gets a confusing between DALL-E, DALL-E 2, Stable Diffusion 1.x and 2.x. But Imagen is using some ideas introduced by OpenAI and they also published the influential GLIDE paper. To greatly simplify, my impression is that OpenAI's big impact was proving that scale works and causing many other large scale projects to get going.

Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023

#27

In order to remain competitive, OpenAI will need to make ChatGPT free. It's basically going to be a repeat of the browser war since all the major tech companies have their own version of AI that they can offer with their other products. The main issue is that they, OpenAI, don't have any other sources of revenue so they can't continue to give away the product without going broke. Yet, the big companies can do it fore…

The comparison to the browser wars may not be a 100% match. Part of the browser wars was that not all of the web would be compatible with all the browsers, whereas all the AI companies (in a way) program against the same "universal interface" that is the English language (and other languages, potentially).

But they also get to work with proprietary data corpuses and training weights, and can be adapted to trigger proprietary APIs on particular devices (or browsers) in response to certain user queries

Indeed triggering those APIs has been the actual use case for the most widely used chatbots that were around before GPT

Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023

#28
post #14

I think OpenAI made two strategic blunders: 1. Publishing the Dall-E papers and pre-trained CLIP weights. This inspired Stable Diffusion/MidJourney, reducing the amount of time OpenAI had for their Dall-E service to get established by maybe a year. During that time, they could've gained long-term customers, generated some revenue, and established partnerships with Adobe and other graphics software makers. Now they're…

Hard disagree, I think 2 is actually a genius move after major fail with dall-e 2 pricing model. In general, they are probably looking for stable diffusion like adoption curve, but unless they have an offering people can use for free that is flexible enough (giving users just a prompt box is not flexible enough), someone else is going to eat their lunch on LLM's too, when you won't need colab to run them.

Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023

#29
post #24
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think OpenAI made two strategic blunders to quote the "Introducing OpenAI" article from 2015, dec 11: "OpenAI is a non-profit artificial intelligence research company. Our goal is to advance digital intelligence in the way that is most likely to benefit humanity as a whole, unconstrained by a need to generate financial return. Since our research is free from financial obligations, we can better focus on a positiv…

I believe OpenAI is for profit since 2019 now. See https://techcrunch.com/2019/03/11/openai-shifts-from-nonprof...

ok, so?

The mentioned things are strategic blunders if their goal is to maximise profit (maybe). If they have some other goal, they might not be blunders. In fact they might be on track with what they want to achieve.

The legal form of the corporate structure is not the deciding factor here. What are their goals is.

Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023

#30

Why Microsoft? What about all the other big tech companies like, facebook, google, apple? The same can be said of any large org.

Because they invested $1B in OpenAI so presumably they have Most Favored Nation status. And they’re not dumb enough to let Google buy it after they’ve integrated it in Azure.
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