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Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023

thoughtfulbits.me

11–20 of 62 posts

Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023

#11

I was listening to a podcast[1] and they say the cost of inference (responding to a question) in ChatGPT is about 1-2 cent. Is that true? And how would that map to the overall cost microsoft can pay for integrating that into Bing, considering number of search queries in Bing. 1- https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/06/podcasts/hard-fork-tiktok...

Just for most active searchers maybe.

Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023

#14
I think OpenAI made two strategic blunders:

1. Publishing the Dall-E papers and pre-trained CLIP weights. This inspired Stable Diffusion/MidJourney, reducing the amount of time OpenAI had for their Dall-E service to get established by maybe a year. During that time, they could've gained long-term customers, generated some revenue, and established partnerships with Adobe and other graphics software makers. Now they're second string.

2. Publishing the GPT-3 paper and releasing ChatGPT for free online. Instead, they should've improved it by adding things like references and released it already integrated in Bing/Word/Cortana. This would've been more valuable to Microsoft. Now, Google has time to catch up and have their own model in their search engine not long after Bing if they do it right. And Anthropic is working on a chat model and will have a good one as well soon.

One possible counterargument could be that these haphazard releases allowed OpenAI to gain mindshare among researchers. But this is much more vague and speculative.

Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023

#15

Hand wave all you like. If Microsoft is putting money into a 3rd party company for their AI (and, they are. right now ) …that is fundamentally not sustainable as the “total value” of the relationship increases. Either a) Microsoft will in-house their own version and drop openAI, or b) they’ll buy them. Any other conclusion that anyone draws about Microsoft’s commercial relationships is delusional. The only point in c…

Another consideration here is whether or not OpenAI specifically is inherently special relative to other systems.

ChatGPT is popular, because most of the world has looked at it (myself included) and thought “wow”, but I don’t know what Google, Microsoft or anyone else has running in their labs.

Google’s LAMDA demo some time back was incredibly impressive, but it’s not led to anything publicly released yet, so comparisons can’t be made.

Microsoft may not be interested in OpenAI because they’ve looked at it and thought they’re further ahead with some new Cortana buried in a basement in Redmond.

Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023

#16

This might sound naive, but wasn't the founding principle behind OpenAI that it should prevent powers around AI being concentrated in the hands of nations or big companies? I really hope OpenAI won't get acquired.

It's "Open" in name only so the power is already concentrated.

Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023

#17

The underlying assumption here is that Sam would be willing to sell OpenAI. I don't think that's the case. There's no amount of money that Microsoft could throw at Sam to convince him to sell. Not only is he already wealthy, but he's also a true believer in AI. And unlike Snapchat, it's going to be very hard for incumbents to clone.

> And unlike Snapchat, it's going to be very hard for incumbents to clone

We forgetting how Dall-E 2 was made irrelevant just a few weeks after release by Stable Diffusion?

I agree with everything else you're saying though, I don't think he'd have any interest in selling it.

Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023

#18

This might sound naive, but wasn't the founding principle behind OpenAI that it should prevent powers around AI being concentrated in the hands of nations or big companies? I really hope OpenAI won't get acquired.

It was but isn't anymore. It's just a commercial company now as far as it appears from the outside. I too had the same hope, but it seems that it went out the window a while ago.

Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023

#19
post #14

I think OpenAI made two strategic blunders: 1. Publishing the Dall-E papers and pre-trained CLIP weights. This inspired Stable Diffusion/MidJourney, reducing the amount of time OpenAI had for their Dall-E service to get established by maybe a year. During that time, they could've gained long-term customers, generated some revenue, and established partnerships with Adobe and other graphics software makers. Now they're…

>Publishing the Dall-E papers

Isn't stable diffusion implementation based on imagen paper?

Re: Microsoft will have to buy OpenAI in 2023

#20
post #14

I think OpenAI made two strategic blunders: 1. Publishing the Dall-E papers and pre-trained CLIP weights. This inspired Stable Diffusion/MidJourney, reducing the amount of time OpenAI had for their Dall-E service to get established by maybe a year. During that time, they could've gained long-term customers, generated some revenue, and established partnerships with Adobe and other graphics software makers. Now they're…

> I think OpenAI made two strategic blunders

to quote the "Introducing OpenAI" article from 2015, dec 11:

"OpenAI is a non-profit artificial intelligence research company. Our goal is to advance digital intelligence in the way that is most likely to benefit humanity as a whole, unconstrained by a need to generate financial return. Since our research is free from financial obligations, we can better focus on a positive human impact."

https://openai.com/blog/introducing-openai/

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