RIP lawyers... And doctors, writers and programmers...
According to previous news these jobs are already all been replaced since at least 1970
GPT Takes the Bar Exam
51–60 of 147 posts
Re: GPT Takes the Bar Exam
#52Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you're alluding to the notion "AI will take ALL the jobs!", well, here I am, still building websites for well established companies that still don't (in 2023!!!) have a web presence. Hell, half the worlds banking system still runs on COBOL! Leading edge tech development is rapid, sure. But tech understanding, adoption, and implementation is painfully slow. Humans gon' be humans. It's like the same thing every 5 ye…
I don’t really know to what extent AI is going to take over. But crypto is a Terri comparison, it didn’t really solve any problems. There’s nothing you can do with a blockchain that’s you couldn’t already do before. The potential with Chatgpt if it can be refined is wild.
> The potential with Chatgpt if it can be refined is wild.
But this is exactly my point. I likely saw in 2018 word for word "The potential with blockchain technology if it can be refined is wild." Then everyone slowly realized - as you mentioned - "there's nothing you can do with a blockchain that you couldn't already to before". Same with chatGPT, it's just regurgitating what we collective know as a species. I just don't see how, if ever, any sort of AI system (even granted geometric improvement blah blah blah) is going to take over my daily type of work.
Re: GPT Takes the Bar Exam
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don’t really know to what extent AI is going to take over. But crypto is a Terri comparison, it didn’t really solve any problems. There’s nothing you can do with a blockchain that’s you couldn’t already do before. The potential with Chatgpt if it can be refined is wild.
> The potential with Chatgpt if it can be refined is wild. potential for good or bad ? Last time they tried to use AI for police/justice it ended up exacerbating existing biases. > There’s nothing you can do with a blockchain that’s you couldn’t already do before. What can you do with an AI you can't with humans in a court of law ? When a human is wrong you get a single judicial error, when the only software used is…
> potential for good or bad ? Last time they tried to use AI for police/justice it ended up exacerbating existing biases
Both. OpenAI are trying to be politically neutral, but it's not hard to break the rails, and someone else can and will replicate the work without those protections anyway.
> What can you do with an AI you can't with humans in a court of law ?
Me personally? Afford more than a fairly small case.
> What happens if an update makes the same case get a better defence and as an outcome a lesser sentence ? do you retrial all the other similar cases ?
That's actually a great idea. The estimated cost of each query is cents, so we might very well be able to retry everyone on each update, for less than the cost of keeping them imprisoned.
Re: GPT Takes the Bar Exam
#54Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think ~100 years is an overestimate by an order of magnitude. I know that people like to bash GPT-3 and ChatGPT for not being perfect. But people like to bash everything, especially things they don't understand. Technology tends to grow much closer to an exponential speed than linear. What ChatGPT can do today is truly, utterly, astonishing. That's the new baseline.
It's been at least 70 years since AI is supposed to replace everything a human can do. It's still mostly shit at basically everything besides playing chess and go, I don't think 100 years is unrealistic, especially given the other very important issues we face and will face as humanity
AI can play chess, Go, Jeopardy, StarCraft, Minecraft, Atari games, write essays, summarize text, answer almost any question, drive a car, do above average on a SAT test, fool many people into wondering on Twitter if there were real people typing answers, write chapters of books, act as a dungeon master, write code to spec, win programming competitions, act as a therapist, fold proteins, provide medical diagnosis, visualize any image you describe, visualize any video clip you describe, animate characters, understand spoken language, take drive-thru orders, translate, tell jokes on any topic on demand (vastly funnier than you, would bet anything on that), write songs (music and lyrics), recreate a scene from any angle based on some photos, impersonate any person speaking in video and/or audio, impersonate any person's writing style, imitate any art style.
It's quite possible that AI and robotics will fully surpass humans in all tasks in the next several years and you will still be in denial. Along with millions of others.
EDIT: not permitted to reply, but the comments below are examples of denial or lack of information. In fact leading edge systems have been driving without human assistance for years. The new OpenAI models certainly don't need any help to answer their prompts.
It's going to be interesting to see how far the denial goes. I assume some people will deny that artificial entities have any "real" intelligence somehow forever, even after they are literally talking to them face to face on a daily basis as they provide superior professional advice or services. Or even when there are many autonomous agents that take control of the planet.
Re: GPT Takes the Bar Exam
#55Potentially in ~100 years you could have two AIs sort out the cases. If you can't afford a really good AI to defend you, you can use the public-defender-AI which is trained on the same dataset as the prosecutor-AI. Only involve humans on appeal. It sounds dystopian but I can't see why not to do it, in most simpler cases it's a waste of a human to repeat the same argument for the hundredth time. There's already things…
The AI is not a person in the sense that a person is a person. You see, when a person makes a judgement, you judge the judgement based on personal qualities: did they look like they were paying attention during the case, did they say things that were well reasoned, do they have the right experience? If we put an AI in the role of the judge/attorneys, we will come up against "ah but the robot didn't do this thing that…
"A computer can never be held accountable, therefore a computer must never make a management decision". Or in this case, a legal one.
https://twitter.com/swiftonsecurity/status/13855657371677245...
The accountability of the existing judicial system is already pretty thin, and in some cases being elected makes it worse rather than better, but turning it over to automation? Having a system that is entirely unaware of the society and political environment in which it operates? That is very bad for legitimacy. Now, you don't need legitimacy so long as the monopoly on violence holds ...
Re: GPT Takes the Bar Exam
#56Soon we're going back to the trees and the AI will bring the food and gives orders :DD.
Frankly, well-developed artificial intelligence should only be used for very difficult tasks, and everything else should be left to humans, otherwise we would rely on it too much, and the decline of our species would be inevitable.
Re: GPT Takes the Bar Exam
#57The next ten years will be very interesting.
If you're alluding to the notion "AI will take ALL the jobs!", well, here I am, still building websites for well established companies that still don't (in 2023!!!) have a web presence. Hell, half the worlds banking system still runs on COBOL! Leading edge tech development is rapid, sure. But tech understanding, adoption, and implementation is painfully slow. Humans gon' be humans. It's like the same thing every 5 ye…
> If you're alluding to the notion "AI will take ALL the jobs!", well, here I am, still building websites for well established companies that still don't (in 2023!!!) have a web presence. Hell, half the worlds banking system still runs on COBOL!
One thing that I have noticed in the just-over-a-decade since Word Lens first demonstrated real time augmented reality translations on a smart phone (IIRC they were later bought by Google for Google Translate), is that a surprisingly large number of people aren't following what AI can do. In fact, fellow developers even a decade later have been surprised when I told them about this feature of Google Translate. And we are both Ausländer living in Berlin, so we both have need of it.
This means that I am not surprised by your experiences, nor would I be surprised if you can continue to do that business, even though it's already possible to get GPT-3 (ChatGPT is more like 3.5) to build you a website.
ChatGPT knows more Python than I do, and I have been paid to write Python (albeit a while ago now). Don't get me wrong, I can see things I'd do differently, but it worked, and it did know stuff that had been added to the language more recently than the last time I used it: https://github.com/BenWheatley/Studies-of-AI/blob/main/codin...
Re: GPT Takes the Bar Exam
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The potential with Chatgpt if it can be refined is wild. potential for good or bad ? Last time they tried to use AI for police/justice it ended up exacerbating existing biases. > There’s nothing you can do with a blockchain that’s you couldn’t already do before. What can you do with an AI you can't with humans in a court of law ? When a human is wrong you get a single judicial error, when the only software used is…
> potential for good or bad ? Last time they tried to use AI for police/justice it ended up exacerbating existing biases Both. OpenAI are trying to be politically neutral, but it's not hard to break the rails, and someone else can and will replicate the work without those protections anyway. > What can you do with an AI you can't with humans in a court of law ? Me personally? Afford more than a fairly small case. > W…
> That's actually a great idea. The estimated cost of each query is cents, so we might very well be able to retry everyone on each update, for less than the cost of keeping them imprisoned.
You're thinking like a developer and you're absolutely blind when it comes to the lives and families potentially destroyed by something like that. And that's exactly why technocrats should rarely be in charge
"ah really sorry dude, we released you last year but now you're on death row, wait for the next update, if it comes before you're fried on the chair you might get a lesser sentence. The last dude forgot to uncomment a branch in a switch/case and you were flagged incorrectly. Sorry for the inconvenience xoxo"
> Me personally? Afford more than a fairly small case.
That's a regulation issues, not an AI issue.
Re: GPT Takes the Bar Exam
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's been at least 70 years since AI is supposed to replace everything a human can do. It's still mostly shit at basically everything besides playing chess and go, I don't think 100 years is unrealistic, especially given the other very important issues we face and will face as humanity
AI can play chess, Go, Jeopardy, StarCraft, Minecraft, Atari games, write essays, summarize text, answer almost any question, drive a car, do above average on a SAT test, fool many people into wondering on Twitter if there were real people typing answers, write chapters of books, act as a dungeon master, write code to spec, win programming competitions, act as a therapist, fold proteins, provide medical diagnosis, vi…
Aside from games, AI can do all these things only with human assistance.
It's like saying "Excel can do your taxes". Sure, it can, if you put the correct numbers and formulas into the cells first.
Re: GPT Takes the Bar Exam
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's been at least 70 years since AI is supposed to replace everything a human can do. It's still mostly shit at basically everything besides playing chess and go, I don't think 100 years is unrealistic, especially given the other very important issues we face and will face as humanity
AI can play chess, Go, Jeopardy, StarCraft, Minecraft, Atari games, write essays, summarize text, answer almost any question, drive a car, do above average on a SAT test, fool many people into wondering on Twitter if there were real people typing answers, write chapters of books, act as a dungeon master, write code to spec, win programming competitions, act as a therapist, fold proteins, provide medical diagnosis, vi…
> AI can .... drive a car
Yeah no. Everything in your list should be prefixed by "kinda", and "kinda" doesn't really cut it in most of these situations.
They certainly are good tools but it's very far from what it promised, even decades ago.
> still be in denial
AI bros are in denial since 1950. With ifs and buts you can write compelling arguments for anything, in the meantime reality is a thing and virtually none of what you wrote is part of reality.
People like you are still in the "everyone will for sure have flying cars by 2000" stage of the new iteration