Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

hannahritchie.substack.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

251–260 of 413 posts

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#251

Post by Julien_r2 »

j0li0t wrote: post #216

Volume is not the only issue. How about the moral aspect of mining in underdeveloped countries with poor working conditions...

This is definitely an issue which is well underestimated!

Portugal (e.g in Covas de Barroso) [1] and Spain (e.g. in Cáceres) [2] are facing huge pressure to settle for lithium mines, without much consideration for the social and ecological impacts on those regions...

It is still considered as a green energy, simply because we decide to forget about part of the process. Just as we did for gas, and plastic.

Energy price should take in account all the impacts (recycling included), the avoid being considered as a magical solution, and rush blindly toward the next crisis..

[1] https://www.portugalresident.com/lithium-wars-step-up-in-cov...

[2] https://www.ft.com/content/459191d9-774d-4a2b-8ec6-ba472017b...

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#252

Post by dgudkov »

ag315 wrote: post #142

It's not just lithium that's the problem; copper is also a major component, and we don't have nearly enough of that either. A full transition to electric vehicles is not viable with current technologies. If we can make a big leap in solid state battery technology then that could make all the difference, but the viability of those is being continuously postponed.

>A full transition to electric vehicles is not viable with current technologies.

So maybe, just maybe, Toyota wasn't that wrong by not going full gung-ho about EVs.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#253

Post by tomtheelder »

keneda7 wrote: post #168
hannasanarion wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How about the fact that America's most walkable and transit-accessible neighborhoods are also the most expensive and highest demand? People want this kind of development, they flock to it, and they are willing to pay astronomically high prices to get it. The government keeps the supply low with exclusionary zoning that makes all types of construction except car-centric single family housing illegal.

You have evidence of that claim? I took a look around me. The most expensive and highest demand areas are actually not transit accessible at all and walking is not really feasible as the houses have lots of land and are very spread out. I am in the Sacramento area for reference.

Well for starters Sacramento is just a really poor example. Most of CA isn't. It's a consequence of hyper aggressive SFH zoning (~80% of the SCAG area is SFH, used to be even higher) and the era in which CA grew being the mid century period.

There basically aren't any properly transit served and walkable areas in Sacramento. Closest would be Midtown and Richmond Grove, but they aren't really very good at all compared to neighborhoods in cities with actual infrastructure.

But despite that they are _still_ some of the most expensive neighborhoods in the area on a cost to sq foot basis. The trend of walkable transit served areas being in high demand is near universal across the US.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#254

Post by BlueTemplar »

moffkalast wrote: post #49
dumbfounder wrote: post #30

Can batteries be created to make the process of reclaiming the lithium orders of magnitude easier? A completely different topic: Politics tends to focus on forcing consumer vehicles to go electric, is this really the right move? Most cars are not driven a lot in a day. But cars that are used for work (fleet, uber/deliveries) are used much more, so the benefit to them being electric is far greater. Trucks too most lik…

Those electric cars that aren't being used could theoretically be used as renewable grid load balancers, but in reality I doubt many people would degrade their battery longevity for a few bucks a month they'd likely get from it from the power company.

The main reason it's not worth it is because renewables are still negligible. This is likely to change once they aren't and the demand for storage becomes much higher.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#255

Post by jbm »

matsemann wrote: post #139
TeeMassive wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless you have a family. It has to be there when you need it. Here in Québec we had an elected official who used to preach against cars and then once she got elected bought a SUV because, like everyone else with kids, she needed it for her family. The "you shouldn't need to own a car" attitude is arrogant and authoritarian in nature.

No, the authoritarian and arrogant attitude is from those thinking it's their right to drive everywhere at whatever cost to others. And you're missing the point. Why do you need a car because of family? Think further than your own nose tip. Wouldn't it be nice with a society where you didn't have to drive to do any little chore? And the few times you needed to drive, a care from some car sharing service was available…

You are talking over the parent poster, not trying to understand the situation. Your rosy picture is not in line with my life experience.

I lived in Tokyo where I took the train and walked everywhere. I also lived in Quebec, which is cold and inhospitable during parts of winter.

If you have a car, it's possible to do far more in Quebec than Tokyo. I had a car rental service in tokyo that I used (Times Rentalcar) and often when I needed a car, it was not available — even reserving a week in advance.

Moreover how, exactly, do you intend on restructuring the life of people in cold areas? Are you going to show them Strongtown and Notjustbikes videos and shame them into moving into high density areas?

Speaking of authoritarianism, I even had police in Tokyo ask me for my papers in my house in front of my young children. You may not like it, but "safe" high density living also has a strong police aspect to it with less privacy. I hope you aren't part of an unappreciated minority group in your high density walkable community.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#256

Post by dgudkov »

sroussey wrote: post #236

We won’t be using Lithium by 2050 anyhow. If not aluminum ion batteries, then some other substitute.

Without strong supporting facts for viability of that "some other substitute" it sounds like "Full self-driving is just around the corner".

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#257

Post by vel0city »

778hbff wrote: post #237
vel0city wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why is that necessary? Electric motors provide the unique opportunity to create vastly simpler (and thus cheaper) cars than ICE versions. The majority of the market (dollars-wise, at least) doesn't want a vastly simpler car though. They like having heated leather seats, heated steering wheels, comfortable interiors with good AC and heat, and a decent stereo. Also, its not like you're realistically going to cut the…

Heated seating doesn't need to turn my car into a smartphone. A reasonably simple stereo neither. Bascially what you could have in a car in the 70s. It would be interesting to know how much cost it would cut to leave out the hundreds of sensors and CAN bus stuff and phone-home interactive NFC magic. Less dev costs, less certification, less maintenance, less licensing.

A brand new with markup replacement of the head unit/smart stuff guts of an ICE car I had was ~$1,500 including labor. That core essentially ran Android with a lot of custom skinning and applications, so essentially a cheap Android tablet slightly hardened to handle the heat of a car parked in the sun. What does a set of 19" wheels cost? A set of tires to put on those wheels? The full brake assemblies? The ABS system? We're easily now past a multiple of that cost of the smart stuff guts/head unit and we' don't actually even have a way to spin those wheels or change their direction much less seats or seatbelts or airbags or, you know, a frame.

The screen and radios are usually pretty darn cheap BOM-wise. You really think a computer with less compute capacity as a cheap modern cell phone makes up a significant portion of the cost of a new car?

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#258

Post by peoplefromibiza »

CalRobert wrote: post #91
jgilias wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In theory. In practice the market has spoken as to what kind of a form-factor people find the most useful for personal transportation in different climates and economic development scenarios. There’s no reason why ICEs couldn’t have supported the kind of vehicles some people imagine other people need. The market has spoken, EVs only started gaining traction when they started resembling actual cars in form and functio…

The market is profoundly distorted by single use zoning, parking minimums, density maximums, wide (and high speed) stroads, and other urban design choices that force long journeys. It's also not safe to be on an ebike surrounded by electric Hummers, F-350 super duties, and your normal "whole kindergarten class in the blind spot" Escalades. Having just spent a week in Utrecht it's very clear that "the market" can cert…

> Utrecht

is not representative of common reality.

It is also not much representative of "market forces", cars have to respect very strict "Urban Access Regulations" (similarly across Europe, but in Holland in particular)

Not that it is bad in general, but Utrecht is not a good example of what will happen around the World and actually make a difference.

China + India will soon be inhabited by 3 billion people combined, Utrecht has only 500 thousand residents. It's basically a glitch in the matrix.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#259

Post by tomrod »

ecshafer wrote: post #51
dumbfounder wrote: post #30

Can batteries be created to make the process of reclaiming the lithium orders of magnitude easier? A completely different topic: Politics tends to focus on forcing consumer vehicles to go electric, is this really the right move? Most cars are not driven a lot in a day. But cars that are used for work (fleet, uber/deliveries) are used much more, so the benefit to them being electric is far greater. Trucks too most lik…

The reality is that electric vehicles are a fools errand. The real winning strategy is one that overall reduces dependency on vehicles, and moves more to walking, biking, and mass transit. This would mean actually making hard decisions and having policy changes though. You lower the CO2 produced by orders of magnitude compared to even electric vehicles.

Indeed, and my push Jevon's paradox.

Really, its one arrow in a portfolio of changes needed.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#260

Post by jcampbell1 »

fowkswe wrote: post #161
jcampbell1 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is rigged because people want high speed climate controlled transportation. Prior to oil and autos, there were enclosed carriages pulled by horses.

The market was rigged by oil and auto before cars were climate controlled.

There are antique cast iron boxes that were filled with hot charcoal to keep carriages warm.
Post reply on HN