Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles? • Hacker News Board

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#241

Post by goatlover » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 5:45 PM UTC

micromacrofoot wrote: post #165

irrational wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In theory, but that would also require changing how/where many people live (which would require a lot of construction which would require energy and concrete - both bad things for the environment). I’m thinking over my schedule today and needing to drive the kids places, often many miles away in different directions, plus going to work, running errands with multiple people, etc. Both a bike and a trike would be wildl…

A cargo ebike is a game changer for all of this. I can bring 2 kids to school and do a full grocery trip without even breaking a sweat. I do 6 miles each way and since I avoid traffic it's just as fast as driving. Plenty of people bike all 4 seasons, the Netherlands is the go-to example... it rains a lot there. Driving to work under-dressed in a heated box is a luxury that's kind of harmed a lot of people's ability t…

You can't be serious. It's great it works for you. An ebike isn't a serious replacement for cars used by families in most of the world.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#242

Post by nickspicer1993 » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 5:47 PM UTC

dumbfounder wrote: post #30

Can batteries be created to make the process of reclaiming the lithium orders of magnitude easier? A completely different topic: Politics tends to focus on forcing consumer vehicles to go electric, is this really the right move? Most cars are not driven a lot in a day. But cars that are used for work (fleet, uber/deliveries) are used much more, so the benefit to them being electric is far greater. Trucks too most lik…

All cars need to be EV for net zero and < 2 degree global warming to be achieved not just a subset, there can't be any fossil fuel powered cars on the road by 2050. As hinted below though you could hit 2 birds with one stone and focus on a great EV ride sharing network, guess it depends on how well EV prices can come down and whether cars owned outright will become out of reach for the average person.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#243

Post by fwungy » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 5:50 PM UTC

1. Lithium isn't the only mineral to be concerned about.

2. "The technology will improve" is not always a reliable strategy. Fusion is perpetually almost here, for example.

3. Without a federal money printer propping up the EV market it would not exist.

4. Just because a lifestyle works great for you, e.g. walkable cities and ebikes, doesnt mean it will work for everyone.

5. How far into a dictatorial, command economy, are we capable of going into to effect a massive energy transition, i.e. how much do we force changes a substantial number of people have serious problems with?

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#244

Post by nickspicer1993 » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 5:52 PM UTC

ecshafer wrote: post #51

dumbfounder wrote: post #30

Can batteries be created to make the process of reclaiming the lithium orders of magnitude easier? A completely different topic: Politics tends to focus on forcing consumer vehicles to go electric, is this really the right move? Most cars are not driven a lot in a day. But cars that are used for work (fleet, uber/deliveries) are used much more, so the benefit to them being electric is far greater. Trucks too most lik…

The reality is that electric vehicles are a fools errand. The real winning strategy is one that overall reduces dependency on vehicles, and moves more to walking, biking, and mass transit. This would mean actually making hard decisions and having policy changes though. You lower the CO2 produced by orders of magnitude compared to even electric vehicles.

Governments will need to subsidise EVs and create better mass-transit for those that cannot make the switch, but this is really a personal decision based on their own pros and cons. In a fully renewable grid how is using public transport over your EV orders of magnitude lower?

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#245

Post by wpm » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 5:52 PM UTC

hcurtiss wrote: post #224

wpm wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amtrak is receiving $19.26B over the years of 2022 to 2026. $4.8B a year. That is an increase from the $1.7B/year it received from FY17 to FY19 The FHWA is handing out $52B in FY22. Now, you might say, oh, well, more people drive, so the FHWA is clearly a more sensible place to invest. But Americans spent $743B on their cars, including payments, interest, and insurance. It's a scam.

I wouldn't call it a scam. The subsidy per rider is, in fact, a relevant number. As others have pointed out, commuting by rail in America largely sucks, particularly in an age of COVID and rampant crime in many metro areas. In Portland a dude literally had his face and ear bitten off the other day at a light rail station. People will pay more for cars because everything about the experience is better.

In Portland a guy had his ear bitten, and ~100 people died in their cars in crashes.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#246

Post by 0xbadcafebee » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 5:52 PM UTC

I reject the premise of the question, because you don't need lithium for electric vehicles. We could get by with shitty low-range batteries the way other EVs have. We would just need to standardize battery-swapping at the equivalent of gas stations. Drive 100 miles, drive into a battery-swapping station, service technician swaps the battery, you're back on the road in less than 5 minutes. We did it 100 years ago, we can do it again. So lithium isn't a blocker.

I also think we shouldn't own as many personal vehicles as we do, and should start to move legislation toward more funding of better (and faster, and more efficient) public transit, and more taxing of private vehicles. We don't need to have so many private vehicles, we are just addicted to them.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#247

Post by uuddlrlrbaba » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 5:52 PM UTC

wpm wrote: post #203

jgilias wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good for you! My needs are: - have place for a family of four, two of which are small children; - be something I can use with said family in -15 Celsius; - Be able to be used for a 200km trip weekly with said family; I have an EV.

- two cargo bikes, each ridden by each adult - layers, and canopies for aforementioned e-bikes - train Of course, speaking in the ideal. Just because the car has been the only option for so long doesn't mean it's replacement has to replace every trip either.

Noone is going out alone, let alone with their kids, on a cargo bike at -15C

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#248

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 5:53 PM UTC

jgust wrote: post #205

bertil wrote: post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

> e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shines Is this true? I can go through a 630Wh battery in 2-3 hours of riding and I can't imagine current solar being able to keep up with that. I think you might get an extra ~30 minutes of riding, but not ~forever~ unless you mean pedal power.

[deleted]

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#249

Post by leetcrew » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 5:54 PM UTC

matsemann wrote: post #133

malfist wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But the real problem is that we move 2000+ kgs around to move a human of 80 kgs around. Why is that a problem? If I want to visit my friend who lives 200 miles away, I'm not going to hop on a bike, or walk, or find a horse and buggie to take me there. Vehicles are not inherently evil. In fact they're a great enabler. Even if we take your example at face value and assume nobody travels beyond their city. How is that…

How often do you travel those 200 miles? Why can't you use a car share service for that one occasion? I'm not assuming people never travels beyond their city. Why do car enablers always use people needing a wheelchair to push their agenda? If you're so concerned with their well being, wouldn't it be better if they got the roads for themselves and didn't get stuck in traffic and could always find parking close? Or if…

the wheelchair argument is bs, I agree. every family does not need to have a car for the small fraction of wheelchair users to get to the store.

however, you are not going to connect with your audience when you say things like this:

> How often do you travel those 200 miles? Why can't you use a car share service for that one occasion? I'm not assuming people never travels beyond their city.

cars are not fungible. the driver's seat in my car is always in the right position for me, I'm familiar with all of its controls and weird quirks, and I don't need to reserve it. it's always ready for me in my garage at a moment's notice.

my point is: the only real advantage to your proposal is cost, and I would be willing to pay a lot more than I currently do to keep my car. it would take something more like Japan's train network for me to actually be enthusiastic about giving up my car.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#250

Post by gdcbe » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 5:55 PM UTC

bertil wrote: post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

Only thing they I would counteract is that at least for those living in cities you aren’t necessary right.

I used to own a car. More then a year ago we moved to a cargo bike (electric) which is enough for most of our needs. It can even have an extra trailer, so we can do all groceries and bring our kids with us, in safety and all weather conditions. Even visits to the recycling park are possible with it.

When we do need a car we use a car sharing service for which i have a subscription and can take any type of car available at any time within walk or cycle distance from my house.

As such i think city families probably are fine just owning a cargo bike (or two) and for long distance trips make use of a shared car (or train).