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Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

hannahritchie.substack.com

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Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#201

Post by comte7092 »

SuoDuanDao wrote: post #150
hannob wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Let's build bike lanes that are so scary only the bavest will dare to use them - and also subsidise cars in any way we can." - "The market has spoken, people want cars!"

Well, the market has also spoken as to what kind of councils get elected and what kind of plans those councils approve. Of course, that's in large part because car owners pay infrastructure taxes cyclists don't. But that's also precisely what the market is - the segment who's paying. If wishes built livable cities there'd probably be more of them.

The issue is that you have path dependence in what gets built and the resulting constituencies.

When everyone already drives cars (the US), there’s significant opposition to investment in other types of infrastructure/built in support for investments in car infrastructure. Whereas there are plenty of cities around the global where such constituencies exist for other modes.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#202

Post by CalRobert »

rootusrootus wrote: post #190
hannasanarion wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How about the fact that America's most walkable and transit-accessible neighborhoods are also the most expensive and highest demand? People want this kind of development, they flock to it, and they are willing to pay astronomically high prices to get it. The government keeps the supply low with exclusionary zoning that makes all types of construction except car-centric single family housing illegal.

That may be true in some places, but I'm skeptical of any causal relationship. To use Portland as a example familiar to me, the urban area is the least wealthy. The most expensive, exclusive neighborhoods are around the edges and have awful transit service. Looking at bigger cities, what's a better example? You certainly don't move to Manhattan just because it's walkable.

"You certainly don't move to Manhattan just because it's walkable."

depends on the person. People might move there because of the "vibe" or "excitement" and that tends to go hand in hand with places you can walk.

If it counts I emigrated in large part to be somewhere nicer to walk, but I am unusual. Not unique, though! Jason Slaughter (of NotJustBikes) moved to Amsterdam from Canada explicitly for its urban design.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#203

Post by wpm »

jgilias wrote: post #179
micromacrofoot wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A cargo ebike is a game changer for all of this. I can bring 2 kids to school and do a full grocery trip without even breaking a sweat. I do 6 miles each way and since I avoid traffic it's just as fast as driving. Plenty of people bike all 4 seasons, the Netherlands is the go-to example... it rains a lot there. Driving to work under-dressed in a heated box is a luxury that's kind of harmed a lot of people's ability t…

Good for you! My needs are: - have place for a family of four, two of which are small children; - be something I can use with said family in -15 Celsius; - Be able to be used for a 200km trip weekly with said family; I have an EV.

- two cargo bikes, each ridden by each adult

- layers, and canopies for aforementioned e-bikes

- train

Of course, speaking in the ideal. Just because the car has been the only option for so long doesn't mean it's replacement has to replace every trip either.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#204

Post by vel0city »

778hbff wrote: post #140
JKCalhoun wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be sure many Americans will worry about the danger of being in the smallest vehicle on the road — having to contend with SUVs, full-size pickup trucks. But just as the Japanese found a foothold in the U.S. auto market in the 70's, if there were an electric car for under $10K I suspect a lot of people would find that their fears could be somewhat tempered.

> if there were an electric car for under $10K Somebody should make a concept car that is electric but without any electronics (apart from battery and the motors, obviously). Apart from the battery, what's expensive in a modern electric car is that you are essentially sitting in a giant smartphone with 4 wheels. Why is that necessary? Electric motors provide the unique opportunity to create vastly simpler (and thus c…

> Why is that necessary? Electric motors provide the unique opportunity to create vastly simpler (and thus cheaper) cars than ICE versions.

The majority of the market (dollars-wise, at least) doesn't want a vastly simpler car though. They like having heated leather seats, heated steering wheels, comfortable interiors with good AC and heat, and a decent stereo.

Also, its not like you're realistically going to cut the price in half taking out the stereo. The actual car thing is the vast majority of the price.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#205

Post by jgust »

bertil wrote: post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

> e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shines

Is this true? I can go through a 630Wh battery in 2-3 hours of riding and I can't imagine current solar being able to keep up with that. I think you might get an extra ~30 minutes of riding, but not ~forever~ unless you mean pedal power.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#206

Post by dieselgate »

Good topic but the tldr wasn't super inspiring for me "Yes, the world has enough lithium for our electric vehicles, decades into the future": decades isn't really sufficient for this imo. It would ideally be.. multiple centuries at the very least? Then the author says something like "we have no idea how much lithium there is" so guess nobody knows this answer, but fair enough as it's quite early stage...

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#207

Post by hcurtiss »

kuschku wrote: post #65
trabant00 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Using three tons vehicles for long-distance journeys or for the transport of goods isn’t efficient: trains (and last-mile delivery on cargo bikes) are a lot more economical That sounds intuitive to me but the fact that train tickets are so expensive on long distances (more than twice than if you travel alone in a car) makes me think it's not the case.

Train tickets include track maintenace, but if you travel by car, you usually don't include road maintenance, car purchase, etc in the travel price (as they're often hidden and include many subsidies and tax breaks). Additionally, a train always costs the same amount to run, no matter the number of passengers, so in countries where trains don't see much use (like the US), they'll be much more expensive than they shou…

Passenger rail in the US, like Amtrak, is spectacularly subsidized.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#208

Post by Zigurd »

dieselgate wrote: post #206

Good topic but the tldr wasn't super inspiring for me "Yes, the world has enough lithium for our electric vehicles, decades into the future": decades isn't really sufficient for this imo. It would ideally be.. multiple centuries at the very least? Then the author says something like "we have no idea how much lithium there is" so guess nobody knows this answer, but fair enough as it's quite early stage...

Without knowing the scale of secondary uses of batteries built for cars, or the economics of recycling, I doubt the answer is knowable beyond that horizon.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#209

Post by wpm »

anthonypasq wrote: post #112
rootusrootus wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There isn't any reason people in America couldn't choose such things. They just don't. If the selling of the idea is failing, maybe the idea is the problem and not the people you're selling it to.

how exactly would this work if you have multiple small children, or are disabled, or a variety of other things. Why is there this insistence that Americans are just 'big dumb'

What fraction of the driving population do you assume drive because it's their only mobility option?

Do the blind, seizure prone, or folks otherwise unable to drive a car due to health reasons count too?

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#210

Post by bluedino »

rolenthedeep wrote: post #120
rootusrootus wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There isn't any reason people in America couldn't choose such things. They just don't. If the selling of the idea is failing, maybe the idea is the problem and not the people you're selling it to.

Our cities are designed for cars. Hell, most of our society is designed around owning a car. It is horrendously impractical in a lot of places to go without a car. Our public transit systems are largely garbage, if they exist at all. Bike lanes are extremely rare, and are really just used as free car parking. Take my commute to work for instance. It's about 3 miles, but it would be impossible to bike, as there are hu…

This morning I would have had to bike in the dark, in a 35f rainstorm. Not going to happen.
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