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Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

economist.com

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Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#261
post #21
post #4

I have a Tesla and I also hold a short position on TSLA. My Tesla is a great car. The best car that I've ever driven but I'm not sure if it has anything that other car manufacturers can't replicate. I think Apple can make an even better car than Tesla if they build the hardware and software like their phones and computers. The idea that Autopilot has some magic sauce that nobody else can replicate is laughable.

> The idea that Autopilot has some magic sauce that nobody else can replicate is laughable. Apparently GM's Supercruise is better, and cheaper. I got enhanced autopilot in my first Tesla. Except for changing lanes, things like summon and autopark are just toys. The auto lane chance is so glitchy I decided I was better off saving seven grand on my second Tesla. But if Enhanced Autopilot was 1-2 grand, I'd have bought…

This keeps coming up and I'm wondering what's Waymo's goal? Is it to be licensed self-driving product?

If that's the case and any manufacturer could just license Waymo's tech I'd think that relying on Telsa to win at autopilot is suspect.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There was a survey a few years ago of how much more people would be willing to pay for cars that could drive themself, and the median answer was $0. This is because quite a few people gave a negative number, that is, they would pay extra for a car that could not drive itself. I think there's an inherent distrust (which I share) of giving technology the power to end our lives with one bug. Trust in technology, in ge…

The average American will never be persuaded by statistics. Ross Perot tried that already.

It will be more like statistics convince some people, and then "my friend has one and he loves it, and I've ridden in it, so now I'm comfortable with it" will over time convince the rest.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#263
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being ahead on everything doesn't help if the larger players can pick and choose improvements and learn from your mistakes and adapt. It really doesn't help when the leadership of said car company is erratic and eroding the goodwill of the brand while people generally feel comfortable with more established carmakers. I feel pretty confident that major automakers are going to be around in 10 years. Buying a Tesla alre…

I haven’t checked in a while, but last time I looked Tesla was supply constrained—they couldn’t make cars fast enough to meet demand, so (unless that has changed) they’re probably not too worried about hypothetical demand reduction.

I don't think this is true anymore, since they recently started rolling out discounts on vehicles, which is usually a sign of overstock / slowing demand [0]

[0] https://www.torquenews.com/14335/tesla-sweetens-deal-discoun...

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#264
Viewing Tesla from afar, I've noticed...

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The Good:

I remain excited by their large die castings, aka gigipresses. It seems to me this will lead to better fit and finish (eg. the unforgivable panel gaps).

I support their cradle to grave supply chain integration.

I like that they make their own tech such as chips and batteries.

IIRC, Tesla leads in reducing part count and labor hours.

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The Bad:

Terrible labor relations.

Psychotic spokesmodel.

Declining brand value.

Reportedly poor quality software.

Bad FSD strategy. No LIDAR, wtf?

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The Unknown:

Future cost of capital? Tesla previously had some clever sources of revenue. Govt investment, incentives for EVs, selling emissions credits to other OEMs, customer provided capital thru pre-sales. What's Tesla future play?

Tesla could offer auto insurance, capturing some of that idle capital, a la Buffet & Geico.

Employee morale. Compensation thru stock options is fantastic for growth companies. With the recent devaluation, I'd be super pissed and looking for a new gig.

Their rollout of the 4680 battery with new chemistry seems to troubled. This seems important.

Can their reboot of FSD R&D catch up? New team, finally accepting need for LIDAR, etc.

Rollout of Cybertruck seems contingent on 4680 transition. What's plan 'B'?

Will executive board (investors) boot Elon Musk? He really seems like Tesla's ongoing biggest risk, biggest liability. ("Thank you your service, here's your award plaque, now please go away.")

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> South Korea’s antitrust regulator said it would impose a 2.85 billion won ($2.2 million) fine on Tesla for failing to tell its customers about the shorter driving range of its electric vehicles in low temperatures. As a Tesla owner: range and ambient air temperature are significantly correlated (i.e., your 300 miles of range plummets to ~120 when below freezing). But, on a good, sunny, warm day, their range claims…

I bet if Tesla were in Detroit instead of California, they'd remember that winter exists.

There's plenty of snowy winter weather within an hour or two drive of LA. I'm sure they test in the Angeles Mountains as much as every other car manufacturer I saw test up there when I lived in those mountains.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#266
post #183
post #7

I'm not sure you can say that when the market cap is still 10x car companies that deliver orders of magnitude more cars than them. Even a high growth car company wouldn't justify that valuation. No, Tesla is still very overpriced for a car company based on hype.

Car companies deserve to have a severely depressed valuation because they're currently being forced to transition away from internal combustion. The ICE manufacturing industry is the worst one to be in because government are determined to kill you. Tesla doesn't have this overhang and is also growing very fast.

Car companies arguably operate in _the_ most heavily competitive and capital intensive industry on Earth. Like airlines, there's an argument that they can only manage to exist due to government subsidy. If Tesla evaporated tomorrow, Hyundai/Kia would likely eat their lunch; in a few years, GM will be ready.

It's a brutal business, which is why I think it's fascinating.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#267

Tesla, and even more Uber, were priced as if self driving cars are almost here. The idea that services like Uber without the drivers would make car ownership obsolete drove those valuations. Now that self driving cars are many decades away, instead of less than one decade away, is bring stock prices down. I always questions how fast we would see self driving cars, not because of the technology, but because of consume…

For so many years, the car ads were selling us freedom. The open road, and you're in the driver's seat. Driving could be fun, not just a means of getting somewhere. Sure, they were trying to manipulate public perception, but they were doing so in a way that resonated with a lot of people.

A robot driving your car? Where's the fun in that?

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference seems to be that Tesla was 5-10 years ahead on everything: Minimalistic interiors, modern infotainment, mobile app performance, and of course they lead the way in making electric cars viable by showing that they can both look good and blast off in record time. But you're right that other automakers see Tesla as a threat and are catching up; for example, the range and charging curve improvements on mode…

> Minimalistic interiors, modern infotainment, mobile app performance None of that is why Tesla was ahead of everyone for so long. It's because their cars have better range, and Tesla is still the range leader. They held four of the top six spots in 2022, and the number one is the Lucid Air (only 3k of them have actually been sold): https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/g32634624/ev-lo... Also, I just want to…

Worth noting that list is each model's top trims. The Model 3 Long Range is currently unavailable for purchase.

I wish the EPA would clamp down on manufacturer's range estimates, as those ranges are theoretical (perfect driving with no real acceleration, no climate control, etc). We need practical city/highway range like we get for ICE cars. My EV6 is rated at 310, but driving as conservatively as possible in Houston I get more like 285. On a road trip where it was mostly exposed freeway and cruise control, my range was closer to 220.

Should also probably disclose range in freezing temps as well (I'm in Houston so I don't consider that as much as others). The first manufacturer to solve that problem well would possibly be a better car than one with a larger theoretical range.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference seems to be that Tesla was 5-10 years ahead on everything: Minimalistic interiors, modern infotainment, mobile app performance, and of course they lead the way in making electric cars viable by showing that they can both look good and blast off in record time. But you're right that other automakers see Tesla as a threat and are catching up; for example, the range and charging curve improvements on mode…

> Minimalistic interiors, modern infotainment, mobile app performance None of that is why Tesla was ahead of everyone for so long. It's because their cars have better range, and Tesla is still the range leader. They held four of the top six spots in 2022, and the number one is the Lucid Air (only 3k of them have actually been sold): https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/g32634624/ev-lo... Also, I just want to…

they are the leader in claimed range not realize range.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#270
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They also have by far the best charging network. IMO Teslas have the best long range driving experience. This detail is important although not the only thing to consider. However, it looms large in how Americans think about their cars. I say this as someone who owns an electric car by a different manufacturer.

> They also have by far the best charging network. In the US. And the US drives these crazy valuations.

Supercharger network is also much better than the other networks in Europe as well in the current state.
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