Cathie Wood is not going to like this. I think her bear case is TSLA is a $7T company by 2026. I can’t say I agree with her.
The entire worldwide car industry won't be worth 7 trillion dollars in 2026.
Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm
11–20 of 463 posts
Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm
#12I have a Tesla and I also hold a short position on TSLA. My Tesla is a great car. The best car that I've ever driven but I'm not sure if it has anything that other car manufacturers can't replicate. I think Apple can make an even better car than Tesla if they build the hardware and software like their phones and computers. The idea that Autopilot has some magic sauce that nobody else can replicate is laughable.
> I think Apple can make an even better car than Tesla if they build the hardware and software like their phones and computers.
I'm not sure outsourcing manufacturing and focusing on design works in auto industry - but could be wrong.
Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm
#13Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm
#14This is true for so many "tech" darlings: Should Uber be priced like a tech company, or a cab company? Is Amazon a tech company or a retailer? Are ecommerce outlets like Warby Parker and Away tech companies, or just retailers with good CSS?
It continues to amaze me how investors seem bamboozled by the appearance of "tech company-ness", by businesses which are obviously in markets that don't support the high price to earnings of "tech companies"--valuations which are premised on strong network effects (present, to a degree, with Telsa, in the form of the charging network--but they will open that up to other carmakers, I guess?) and low unit costs (um, not for cars), and which fundamentally make no sense for things like retail (high unit costs, no network effects) or scooter rentals (high capital costs, high unit costs, limited network effects).
But investors--showing the wisdom of crowds, I guess--seem frequently unable to look past the shiny CSS and the fact that the founder/CEO wears a turtleneck and the headquarters office has a beer tap.
Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm
#15I have a Tesla and I also hold a short position on TSLA. My Tesla is a great car. The best car that I've ever driven but I'm not sure if it has anything that other car manufacturers can't replicate. I think Apple can make an even better car than Tesla if they build the hardware and software like their phones and computers. The idea that Autopilot has some magic sauce that nobody else can replicate is laughable.
> I think Apple can make an even better car than Tesla if they build the hardware and software like their phones and computers. I'm not sure outsourcing manufacturing and focusing on design works in auto industry - but could be wrong.
"Outsourcing" is a very poor way to describe Apple's supply chain. They are deeply integrated. For example Apple owns most of the CNCs and similar equipment used. Having tight control over all logistics is core to Apple's strategy of huge global product launches.
Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm
#16What did Elon do to make Tesla earn so much money that the original founders couldnt do? Is it just about debt loans needed?
He's very good at pushing people to work overtime.
Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm
#17This is true for so many "tech" darlings: Should Uber be priced like a tech company, or a cab company? Is Amazon a tech company or a retailer? Are ecommerce outlets like Warby Parker and Away tech companies, or just retailers with good CSS? It continues to amaze me how investors seem bamboozled by the appearance of "tech company-ness", by businesses which are obviously in markets that don't support the high price to…
If their main business does not involve selling information technology to other people and companies, they're not a tech company.
Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm
#18Cathie Wood is not going to like this. I think her bear case is TSLA is a $7T company by 2026. I can’t say I agree with her.
She is amazing, somehow manages to take Elon at his word on everything when even his biggest fans use phrases like "Elon time"
Her valuation makes sense if you think Tesla's going to dominate the car industry and robotaxi and displace truckers with FSD and have Tesla robots replace all factory workers and nurse, rent out the supreme dojo chips to the whole world, etc.
Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm
#19I have a Tesla and I also hold a short position on TSLA. My Tesla is a great car. The best car that I've ever driven but I'm not sure if it has anything that other car manufacturers can't replicate. I think Apple can make an even better car than Tesla if they build the hardware and software like their phones and computers. The idea that Autopilot has some magic sauce that nobody else can replicate is laughable.
The difference seems to be that Tesla was 5-10 years ahead on everything: Minimalistic interiors, modern infotainment, mobile app performance, and of course they lead the way in making electric cars viable by showing that they can both look good and blast off in record time. But you're right that other automakers see Tesla as a threat and are catching up; for example, the range and charging curve improvements on models like the EV6 / Ioniq 5 look great, assuming the charger work [in the cold].
Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm
#20This is true for so many "tech" darlings: Should Uber be priced like a tech company, or a cab company? Is Amazon a tech company or a retailer? Are ecommerce outlets like Warby Parker and Away tech companies, or just retailers with good CSS? It continues to amaze me how investors seem bamboozled by the appearance of "tech company-ness", by businesses which are obviously in markets that don't support the high price to…
If their main business does not involve selling information technology to other people and companies, they're not a tech company.
> selling tech to other companies
By that measure, Apple and Google aren’t tech companies. (Apple sells devices to consumers. Google sells ads to companies.) They are. They just aren’t software companies.