Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023 • Hacker News Board

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#271

Post by johnchristopher » Wed, Jan 04, 2023, 12:31 AM UTC

yucky wrote: post #270

johnchristopher wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or maybe living close to friends and family matters more ? Moving 2000km away from family and friends is an uprooting move.

Think about what you're saying logically. The US is huge and the vast majority of humans do not live in those same handful of high COL cities so no, everybody's friends and family don't all live in SF/LA/NYC/Seattle. It's simple - if you want to live in San Francisco then you need to have income to support it. If you want to be able to afford a 3,000 sq. ft. house in your 20's then there are countless places you can…

Don't take it on me old man, I am just stating a fact you don't like. I am not even saying they are logical, right or advisable (see behavioral economy and all that).

> This reads like people complaining that a new iPhone is $1,200 and then saying "BUT I NEED A PHONE!". Yes, you need a phone. No, you do not need the $1,200 phone. Take the blinders off, there is a whole ass world out here.

And you read like an angry and sour person who wants to rub people's nose in it just to say "told you so" by deliberately missing the point I made. Maybe it makes you feel good but you are not helping anyone.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#272

Post by yucky » Wed, Jan 04, 2023, 1:26 AM UTC

johnchristopher wrote: post #271

yucky wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Think about what you're saying logically. The US is huge and the vast majority of humans do not live in those same handful of high COL cities so no, everybody's friends and family don't all live in SF/LA/NYC/Seattle. It's simple - if you want to live in San Francisco then you need to have income to support it. If you want to be able to afford a 3,000 sq. ft. house in your 20's then there are countless places you can…

Don't take it on me old man, I am just stating a fact you don't like. I am not even saying they are logical, right or advisable (see behavioral economy and all that). > This reads like people complaining that a new iPhone is $1,200 and then saying "BUT I NEED A PHONE!". Yes, you need a phone. No, you do not need the $1,200 phone. Take the blinders off, there is a whole ass world out here. And you read like an angry a…

Except I'm right, which matters more. The best way to help people is to be honest with them. Validating their feelings might make you feel good, but it does them a disservice. I'd rather be right and sound like an asshole than tell them it's ok to keep heading towards their own demise.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#273

Post by johnchristopher » Wed, Jan 04, 2023, 1:59 AM UTC

yucky wrote: post #272

johnchristopher wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't take it on me old man, I am just stating a fact you don't like. I am not even saying they are logical, right or advisable (see behavioral economy and all that). > This reads like people complaining that a new iPhone is $1,200 and then saying "BUT I NEED A PHONE!". Yes, you need a phone. No, you do not need the $1,200 phone. Take the blinders off, there is a whole ass world out here. And you read like an angry a…

Except I'm right, which matters more. The best way to help people is to be honest with them. Validating their feelings might make you feel good, but it does them a disservice. I'd rather be right and sound like an asshole than tell them it's ok to keep heading towards their own demise.

I don't understand your beef or where that chip on your shoulder comes from.

All I said was:

> Or maybe living close to friends and family matters more ? Moving 2000km away from family and friends is an uprooting move.

Which is basically a fact that explain why it's hard to move for some. I don't see how it can - or needs - to be argued. I am not even claiming it's a valid reason not to move.

> Except I'm right, which matters more. The best way to help people is to be honest with them. [..] I'd rather be right and sound like an asshole than [..].

Oh but you just don't sound like one. Pretty sure you've already been told that.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#274

Post by yucky » Wed, Jan 04, 2023, 2:42 AM UTC

johnchristopher wrote: post #273

yucky wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except I'm right, which matters more. The best way to help people is to be honest with them. Validating their feelings might make you feel good, but it does them a disservice. I'd rather be right and sound like an asshole than tell them it's ok to keep heading towards their own demise.

I don't understand your beef or where that chip on your shoulder comes from. All I said was: > Or maybe living close to friends and family matters more ? Moving 2000km away from family and friends is an uprooting move. Which is basically a fact that explain why it's hard to move for some. I don't see how it can - or needs - to be argued. I am not even claiming it's a valid reason not to move. > Except I'm right, whic…

Because they're not moving away from San Francisco, they're moving to San Francisco. And they're moving away from those friends and family that you were referring to, to do so.

The solution is simple. Stop moving to the same 5 overpriced cities. Or, don't expect to be able to buy a house there if you do. These are facts, ignoring them causes problems.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#275

Post by llampx » Wed, Jan 04, 2023, 9:28 AM UTC

imtringued wrote: post #231

FooBarBizBazz wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is one of the problems with rate hikes. They reduce production and investment. New home builds are down . Manufacturing is down . All of this is exactly the opposite of what we should want, which is low prices due not to a scarcity of money but to an abundance of wealth.

The problem is people don't use the cheap money to build more. They are being showered with it and then laws prevent building housing. It looks like a money problem because money moves faster than real estate but this isn't a 2022 problem, it is a problem that has been creeping up since the 70s.

Exactly. Look in the recent Canada thread for an exhaustive discussion about this. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34216118

Summary: Governments and local landowners/homeowners benefit from increasing prices, so they prevent homes from being built or for density to be increased in areas with existing homes and services. This causes supply not to be able to meet demand, which causes rising prices.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#276

Post by llampx » Wed, Jan 04, 2023, 9:30 AM UTC

Izkata wrote: post #171

yucky wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Then everyone - the sellers, the agents, even the bank - push you to borrow the max allowed and spend it. You are not forced to spend above your ability to pay. People used to be ok with buying smaller homes, or in less hip neighborhoods. If you can afford a $500k house you can also afford a $350k house. People need to stop making excuses for living above their means.

> If you can afford a $500k house you can also afford a $350k house. Those numbers seem insanely high to me. I would've thought people are looking for more like $100k.

Inflation has been really insane for the last few years, driven by cheap money from the Central Banks. Asset prices have been going parabolic.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#277

Post by johnchristopher » Wed, Jan 04, 2023, 1:25 PM UTC

yucky wrote: post #274

johnchristopher wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand your beef or where that chip on your shoulder comes from. All I said was: > Or maybe living close to friends and family matters more ? Moving 2000km away from family and friends is an uprooting move. Which is basically a fact that explain why it's hard to move for some. I don't see how it can - or needs - to be argued. I am not even claiming it's a valid reason not to move. > Except I'm right, whic…

Because they're not moving away from San Francisco, they're moving to San Francisco. And they're moving away from those friends and family that you were referring to, to do so. The solution is simple. Stop moving to the same 5 overpriced cities. Or, don't expect to be able to buy a house there if you do. These are facts, ignoring them causes problems.

> Because they're not moving away from San Francisco, they're moving to San Francisco. And they're moving away from those friends and family that you were referring to, to do so.

No.

> Or maybe living close to friends and family matters more ? Moving 2000km away from family and friends is an uprooting move.

I was talking about why some people would find moving away from SF to more affordable places hard.

It wouldn't make sense to point that living close to friends and family matter more to some when moving to SF than moving to Dallas or Kansas City. What difference would it make to move 2000km away from family and friends to SF or to Kansas City ? Both case you miss friends and family.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#278

Post by yucky » Wed, Jan 04, 2023, 4:14 PM UTC

johnchristopher wrote: post #277

yucky wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because they're not moving away from San Francisco, they're moving to San Francisco. And they're moving away from those friends and family that you were referring to, to do so. The solution is simple. Stop moving to the same 5 overpriced cities. Or, don't expect to be able to buy a house there if you do. These are facts, ignoring them causes problems.

> Because they're not moving away from San Francisco, they're moving to San Francisco. And they're moving away from those friends and family that you were referring to, to do so. No. > Or maybe living close to friends and family matters more ? Moving 2000km away from family and friends is an uprooting move. I was talking about why some people would find moving away from SF to more affordable places hard. It wouldn't…

You seem to have this preconceived notion in your mind that the Bay Area is the real world, and it's not. The vast majority of the country has affordable housing and available jobs, which means people don't need to move to the same 5 cities driving up the cost of living on those cities, they are choosing to do that because it sounds cool to say they moved there or they believe the lies that all the jobs are in the same handful of cities. And then they complain that they can't afford to live there.

You don't hear people from Dallas or KC or Cleveland or Pittsburgh or wherever complaining they can't afford to buy a house there, because I can go to Zillow and show you hundreds of houses in every one of those metro areas (and more) that are under $150k, and affordable to first time home buyers with an FHA mortgage putting less than $5k down and having a mortgage of around $1,300/month which makes it affordable to anybody making over $25/hour. In short, people are making excuses nd pointing to extremes in the Bay Area or NYC or wherever to validate their feelings.

Those are facts, and that is the math. Everything else is just feelings.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#279

Post by johnchristopher » Wed, Jan 04, 2023, 7:06 PM UTC

yucky wrote: post #278

johnchristopher wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Because they're not moving away from San Francisco, they're moving to San Francisco. And they're moving away from those friends and family that you were referring to, to do so. No. > Or maybe living close to friends and family matters more ? Moving 2000km away from family and friends is an uprooting move. I was talking about why some people would find moving away from SF to more affordable places hard. It wouldn't…

You seem to have this preconceived notion in your mind that the Bay Area is the real world, and it's not. The vast majority of the country has affordable housing and available jobs, which means people don't need to move to the same 5 cities driving up the cost of living on those cities, they are choosing to do that because it sounds cool to say they moved there or they believe the lies that all the jobs are in the sa…

> You seem to have this preconceived notion in your mind that the Bay Area is the real world, and it's not.

Your insistence on trying to paint me into the object of your obsession, that people think the Bay Area is the real world and they are entitled to things you believe they have no rights to, while being wrong and out of place, is preventing any progress on your side in understanding what I am trying to tell you:

> Moving 2000km away from family and friends is an uprooting move.

It's hard, it hurts. That plays a role in people's behavior. You may not like it but it is what it is [0].

All the while you keep trying to convince me of something I don't disagree with (prices of real estate and houses in the US market). Quite frankly it's tiresome and I'll let you have the final word (another copy-paste of a napkin plan to become a homeowner or a rant against the youth-of-today and their damn iPhones I suppose).

[0] That being said, I can understand how frustrating it must be for you since according to your posts you don't seem to hold feelings in high regard or even have some, which would explain it all.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#280

Post by yucky » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 2:30 AM UTC

johnchristopher wrote: post #279

yucky wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to have this preconceived notion in your mind that the Bay Area is the real world, and it's not. The vast majority of the country has affordable housing and available jobs, which means people don't need to move to the same 5 cities driving up the cost of living on those cities, they are choosing to do that because it sounds cool to say they moved there or they believe the lies that all the jobs are in the sa…

> You seem to have this preconceived notion in your mind that the Bay Area is the real world, and it's not. Your insistence on trying to paint me into the object of your obsession, that people think the Bay Area is the real world and they are entitled to things you believe they have no rights to, while being wrong and out of place, is preventing any progress on your side in understanding what I am trying to tell you:…

I gave you the math, which you couldn't challenge. It's the reason people continue to buy homes every day. You want it to sound impossible, but that's simply not backed up by the data.