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Things Silicon Valley gets wrong about agriculture

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Re: Things Silicon Valley gets wrong about agriculture

#111
post #33
post #5

The key insight Silicon Valley lacks about agriculture is that there is little potential for a big win. Major improvements mean 10% of something, not 10x. US agriculture is already highly efficient. On the down side, there's potential for a big loss if you screw up.

This is actually the big insight big time agriculture lacks about agriculture. They are obsessed with volumes and consider their farms to be large spread out factories making commodities and the tons of commodities produced to be the only metric that matters. There are big wins to be had in making better food -- both healthier and better tasting. Most food in America tastes kind of bad and is very bad for you, so the…

But arable land is mostly a function of rainfall and flatness.

You can turn almost any flat land into arable land given enough effort.

Terraced farming cannot be mechanised economically because you need very small combines that need to be transported up or down and building the terrace with excavators etc disrupts the soil which means you have to build it up which means hardly any productivity in the first decade. You got a huge equipment, logistics and construction problem which requires massive amounts of upfront capital for basically no cash flow during the most important years. We would need huge advances in agricultural robotics for this to be cost effective.

Re: Things Silicon Valley gets wrong about agriculture

#112

I used to specialize in Agtech as a consultant. It's a weird space. [Disclaimer, this is my experience of the Australia and NZ scene, not much Silicon Valley involved] The gap between "people who know ag" and "people who know tech" is just vast. And I sensed no great urgency to bridge the gap. I tried myself - talked to every farmer I could, moved to a working farm, even had a go at weighing cattle and applying treat…

As someone involved in ocean tech, I sometimes see a similar attitude, although the number of former naval personnel looking for new opportunities helps to bridge that gap a little bit.

I've had tech people occasionally propose ideas, or ask if something sounds feasible, and one of the first things I often remind them is that the ocean is brutal to most forms of human engineering; something like Murphys Law incarnate. Weird physical stresses, bad wireless comms, corrosion of all sorts, biofouling of all the things, large temperature swings, etc. Sometimes a good day in ocean tech isn't "it worked", it's "it didn't work, but we got our equipment back out of the water." The domain knowledge involved in building or operating even moderately-reliable systems like that is hard to get without first-hand experience. There are lots of important, interesting problems offered by the ocean, but they always come hand-in-hand with these not-so-fun ones, which in my experience tends to dampen tech people's enthusiasm a bit.

Re: Things Silicon Valley gets wrong about agriculture

#113

Silicon Valley is great at tech because it has a high concentration of tech companies and top universities. It doesn't have that for agriculture. The "Silicon Valley" of agriculture is in Wageningen, a small university town in The Netherlands. In the surrounding area you have a huge number of food/agri-tech firms.

i’m not sure if silicon valley is great at technical prowess anymore. the hype machine has run its course and the tech is more proliferated and distributed than ever before.

It depends what counts as "technical prowess". You've got to go elsewhere if you want microchips with the finest available features.

Re: Things Silicon Valley gets wrong about agriculture

#114

I used to specialize in Agtech as a consultant. It's a weird space. [Disclaimer, this is my experience of the Australia and NZ scene, not much Silicon Valley involved] The gap between "people who know ag" and "people who know tech" is just vast. And I sensed no great urgency to bridge the gap. I tried myself - talked to every farmer I could, moved to a working farm, even had a go at weighing cattle and applying treat…

I took a sabbatical a while back after a couple of back to back bad contracting gigs that had me thinking maybe it was not them but me.

My plan was to work on software for permaculture, but there were a number of confounding factors that limited that and I ended up abandoning the work. Portable devices were still not great in full light settings. Although that has improved in the interim, the bigger problem was that at least half of the permaculture people I knew were anti technology. More than a few were borderline pastoralists, and I found a group of them having an antivax conversation (pre-Covid, pre-Trump). I can’t recall the last time I was that disappointed.

Connectivity is a big issue as you say, but also the ergonomics are just bad for many settings. Glare is bad, especially when combined with dust. Farming and landscaping is dirty work. Touch screens do not like dirt, especially abrasive dirt. Work gloves prevent blisters and some dirt, but some gets through the gloves. But also getting gloves on and off repeatedly is a huge pain in the butt, which is something I only came to discover more recently when my partner or work would try to message me when I was working in the yard. It takes you out of your flow.

I think we will get there, but it will take OLED or better displays, and many more iterations on scratch resistant coatings (I gouged the shit out of my Apple Watch 5 by wearing it gardening), and I think then the path will still be voice recording, note taking and location tracking as the primary tools to split data collection in the field from copy editing accomplished while sitting at the kitchen table or office desk.

Re: Things Silicon Valley gets wrong about agriculture

#115

As someone with a foot in both worlds, I have been in tech for 30+ years and we also own a small cattle farm (can't even call it a ranch), there is a staggering amount of distrust in technology of any kind in the ag world. Every new piece of tech comes saddled with some license, or dealer only issue, or the old tractor/equipment could break down and I could fix it in the field on my own in a few hours, vs my new equi…

I’ve seen the tech distrust with landscapers (who were also permaculture enthusiasts, but I’m not sure what that does to the Venn Diagram). And protest all you want, but this is a group that is exquisitely sensitive to UX concerns and we are barely adequate at managing UX for moderately tech savvy people, let alone technophobes. The Hands in Soil community needs an Apple serving their needs, but as you say they can’t afford premium products, so they will continue to be underserved until there’s a glut of empathy, and… well, don’t hold your breath.

It seems like the likely route is a combination of adaptation of Open Source and some amount of more humane freemium model than currently exists.

What’s the Open Source Equipment community been up to lately? That seemed like a promising direction but I haven’t heard a peep in a long time.

Re: Things Silicon Valley gets wrong about agriculture

#116
post #3

> 4. You can't A/B test a farm (yet) This is done all the time. When evaluating a new seed variety, a different seed spacing, a new nitrogen application, farmers will do a test plot next to the control. If things looks good then they'll expand the new change to more acreage.

I’m in the permaculture community and most of these guys have stories about their neighbors looking at them like they’re crazy for years until there’s a catastrophic event and they see the land across their fence is doing better than theirs and only then do they start asking for advice, which they then take very slowly. For the people who think this is where we need to go to fight soil loss and global warming, this sort of learning by osmosis is very, very frustrating.

People blame these guys for making their money off of speaking engagements and consulting, but it’s going to take a lot to get to the point where your neighbors are on board. If you want to teach someone you have to seek them out, not just work locally.

Re: Things Silicon Valley gets wrong about agriculture

#117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could also be producing hybrid seed.

I have worked on a corn seed farm detassling odd rows of corn. It is every other row for seed hybridization. The rows were marked, but it was pretty obvious because the two heirloom varieties were distinct. If there were more that two varieties, it is not seed production.

I used to live in a town in farm country and saw a lot of it from the back of a bicycle. There’s not much to look at when the corn is high except the corn. I don’t know if things have changed in the last couple of decades but it was pretty common for detassling to remove the pollen from four or five rows at a go, rather than odd/even pairings.

Re: Things Silicon Valley gets wrong about agriculture

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Question - how well known is US Cattle Trace? (Industry lead cattle identification scheme, for traceability). I followed it with interest - they had leap-frogged the state mandated scheme in AU and NZ by pushing UHF RFIDs instead of the LF ones we're stuck with down under - but it's hard to tell if most US cattle farmers have even heard of it.

Cattle Trace is great for people with 10s of thousands of acres to manage. But that's not all that many cattle operations in the grand scheme of things. Most of us are small operations that don't interact with major processing plants and so on. We all know when someone has a sick cow and we all talk to each other. I was part of a pilot program using drones and RFIDs in Brazil some 10 or 15 years ago. It was cool, but…

I assume FAA Part 107, the basic license you need as a drone operator, wouldn't fully allow you to do what you're doing in the US at least. You're using the drone to go check on things you can't see from home. If you're lucky you'll be able to maintain visual contact with the drone, but you'd still need to go through the trouble to get a license.

This is a shame really because it really sounds like a pretty good use case that would be easy to adopt if you could just go down to some farm supply company and pickup a drone and be flying it over your farm the same day. Instead you end up having to figure out licensing requirements and worrying about the restrictions when you don't really want to deal with interpreting and understanding FAA regulations and you shouldn't really have to if you're using the tech over your own land in a rural setting.

Would be cool if one day you could buy a Matterport or Leica Disto equipped LIDAR photo scanner (like Fixar or Wingtra) to survey the entire property based on GIS tax parcel data and then in the software you could select things to photograph on a regular schedule and all you'd have to do is look through the photos each day. Eventually machine learning could be used on the photos and you'd be able to have something like pagerduty for agtech as someone mentioned elsewhere to tell you where to focus your time.

Not sure how well this would work with some livestock since I can't imagine they would like drones buzzing about.

That said, I've got no ag experience so not really sure how much labor this really saves. Just cool to think about.

Re: Things Silicon Valley gets wrong about agriculture

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some of the newer farm equipment can actually apply different amounts of fertilizer (or whatever) to different parts of the same field, based on GPS and a grid of soil samples.

This is precision ag and it’s been around for quite some time.

Someone wa pitching a project for this when I was at NCSA (which was less than two miles from corn fields) in the 90’s, as Netscape was taking over browser development and they needed something else to do (NSF is not fond of competing with commercial interests.)

That would have been an excellent match but I was barely interested and others were less enthusiastic. They started a collaborative software project instead. Which was cool but CRDT wouldn’t be invented for another five to ten years so I wonder what happened with that project.

Re: Things Silicon Valley gets wrong about agriculture

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vertical farms have their own issues and it turns out that they are incredibly vulnerable to electricity prices. It seems an obvious route to take but it isn’t all sunshine. https://www.wired.co.uk/article/vertical-farms-energy-crisis

It takes 9 acres of solar panels to light 1 acre of vertical farm crops. Theoretically, you could cover all of Nevada (~70M acres) & Arizona (~73M acres) with solar panels. That would only give you enough vertical farm space for ~16M acres, and apparently the US only has ~10M acres for farmland for fruits & vegetables. Point being - this seems implausible - and I'm not sure how you work around that. IIUC, it takes ab…

It is also unreasonable since there are better competitors like artificial starch synthesis where you can use bioreactors to produce starch directly from CO2 and electricity at 8 times the efficiency of corn. If you add artificial lighting then vertical farming is at least 16 times worse than artificial starch synthesis. The freed up land would allow us to then grow normal non nutrient dense food in its place instead which obsoletes the need for vertical farming.
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