Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 281 posts

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#51

Post by imglorp »

jagged-chisel wrote: post #37
jmartrican wrote: post #29

When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong. Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.

Seems like, so often, recessions are self-fulfilling prophecies. Unless it’s some journalist clanging their own bell.

Or more likely, some analyst that would like to have a little buy-low opportunity tomorrow.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#52

Post by dumpsterlid »

senda wrote: post #23
netman21 wrote: post #19

Signs I look for of an impending recession: Stagnation. Inflation is a sign of a booming economy. Unemployment. I see help wanted signs everywhere Huge building projects abandoned. Here in SE Michigan I am seeing active construction sites everywhere. The Economist runs headlines like "Are Recessions a Thing of the Past?

I have the same thoughts. However I would say, why are there so many endless help wanted signs? Probably because the jobs don't provide enough income to be sustainable. I think the system currently is wabbling as employers are failing to keep rate with inflation in regards to pay. This will cause a bottleneck in regards to growth/performance for many businesses and ultimately be their downfall.

Because large corporations are essentially trying to tear up the implicit contract that they must offer adequate compensation to attract workers to their jobs. "Nurse shortages" "Truck Driver shortages" "Railworker shortages" "Airplane Pilot shortages". None of these are actually shortages, they are just indications that the businesses involved in those industries are uninterested in offering wages and benefits that will humanely support someone working those jobs. I am no fan of capitalism, but this isnt even capitalism its just an attempt to bash workers into jobs they wouldnt otherwise take (or make it so 18 year olds can drive 18 wheelers commercially....?)

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#53

Post by hikingsimulator »

cj wrote: post #26

Stupid question: Are recessions a healthy part of a normal economic ebb and flow? (Over the long-term) I suppose an extremely long recession/depression (e.g. 5-10 years) would obviously be bad. But are recessions that last 1-2 years really something to panic over at a macro level? My (less than informed) assumption is high growth followed by a slight contraction/recession isn’t objectively bad if it helps an economy…

In economic theory, it is seen as a fact of nature -- moreso the evidence of economic cycles of varying lengths.

So in a sense, yes, one could consider it to be healthy -- like an economic animal shedding some fat.

But I wouldn't personally. Recessions have deep cultural, social and political impacts that, if not dealt with properly, lead to long lasting adverse effects: rise of extremisms, lower social mobility, increased intergenerational poverty and so on.

Because of 2008, millenials lost about 5 years of savings, skill accumulation, etc. they will never earn back.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#54

Post by tejohnso »

cj wrote: post #26

Stupid question: Are recessions a healthy part of a normal economic ebb and flow? (Over the long-term) I suppose an extremely long recession/depression (e.g. 5-10 years) would obviously be bad. But are recessions that last 1-2 years really something to panic over at a macro level? My (less than informed) assumption is high growth followed by a slight contraction/recession isn’t objectively bad if it helps an economy…

I share your intuition.

I don't think many people panic about a recession though. Maybe make some adjustments. Panic only comes across from media outlets.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#55

Post by BirAdam »

paulpauper wrote: post #3

Hasn't it been inevitable every years? It seems like the media writes this headline every year. Anyone can find reasons for recession if you look hard enough. Who knows. I am not selling stocks.

Yes. And it’s actually correct. I’ve thought that US financial system and US dollar would fall since I was roughly 13. The problem is that at some point central banks and governments will be unable to avoid hyperinflation due to debt accumulation. They will be forced to print. Additionally, the debt is inevitable when politicians are bought and paid for and therefore incentivized to provide lucrative contracts to donors, and when interest rates are so low that borrowing is a good idea for private parties. On another note, there is inherent instability in debt-based economics (I don’t think capitalism actually exists at this point, as that word implies the accumulation of capital and current systems substitute capital with debt). If dollars are created through debt and leveraging that debt (as is the case in the USA) a massive default scenario like 2008 becomes a matter of time. If that scenario is large enough it will trigger a deflationary depression that will only further encourage printing as the central bankers try to avoid making all of the debts too expensive to carry. The fact that we’ve avoided a collapse of the current system for so long is more due to cleverness and media cover than anything else. The bankers figured out new ways to manipulate the economy and stall the inevitable but math is real and you can’t do it forever. On a final note, debt based economics will always sacrifice the wealth of future generations for the sake of the current, and this is being felt right now as younger generations are struggling to get started, and the the older generations are living in relative luxury.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#57

Post by Xelynega »

cj wrote: post #26

Stupid question: Are recessions a healthy part of a normal economic ebb and flow? (Over the long-term) I suppose an extremely long recession/depression (e.g. 5-10 years) would obviously be bad. But are recessions that last 1-2 years really something to panic over at a macro level? My (less than informed) assumption is high growth followed by a slight contraction/recession isn’t objectively bad if it helps an economy…

The problem with even short recessions is that we should question whether or not we really need actual people to endure actual hardships while worker efficiency continues upwards for the sake of imaginary numbers.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#58

Post by smitty1e »

d0mine wrote: post #32
jmartrican wrote: post #29

When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong. Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.

It depends on the definition "global recession" Who says it is not already here?

Well, those pencil-whipping the definitions, for starters.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#59

Post by cm2187 »

brookst wrote: post #38
cm2187 wrote: post #24

The economist is blaming it all on Ukraine but the reality is that rate increases will likely be the primary driver for the recession, at least in the US. And those rates hikes (and roll off of the Fed B/S) are a response to inflation. And as much as the economist or Biden would like to pin inflation on Putin, the reality is that the inflation started a year earlier than the Ukraine war, and is the result of money pr…

I knows that’s a theory, but I haven’t see any more evidence that inflation is due to monetary policy than I have that it is due to Ukraine. Lots of philosophical arguments that it must be , but no evidence. Correlation, causation, all of that. Have you seen evidence of causality that goes beyond theory? (I’m not necessarily disagreeing, just saying it often seems like a faith-based view)

The fact that the inflation predates the war in ukraine by several months should be evidence that Ukraine isn't the primary reason. That at least shouldn't be in dispute.

I am not sure what sort of evidence you would expect. Every time you print money you create inflation. Even the post 2008 QE created massive asset inflation that wasn't captured in the main CPI, but the logic still stands.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#60

Post by lp4vn »

cj wrote: post #26

Stupid question: Are recessions a healthy part of a normal economic ebb and flow? (Over the long-term) I suppose an extremely long recession/depression (e.g. 5-10 years) would obviously be bad. But are recessions that last 1-2 years really something to panic over at a macro level? My (less than informed) assumption is high growth followed by a slight contraction/recession isn’t objectively bad if it helps an economy…

It turned out to be a stupid question indeed.

People have not been able to afford rent and food in rich countries to the point of creating social unrests, let alone in poor ones. Unironically check your privilege, man.

Post reply on HN