This is from 11/18. A lot has changed in the last 1.5 months. Truss tax cuts, cited in the article, are not not on the table. Inflation has moderated. Etc.
Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
21–30 of 281 posts
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#22I am pretty sure the Economist cover has been repeatedly mocked as counter-indicator for many years now.
The Economist is the Cramer of publications. To get to the truth do the anti-Cramer.
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#23Signs I look for of an impending recession: Stagnation. Inflation is a sign of a booming economy. Unemployment. I see help wanted signs everywhere Huge building projects abandoned. Here in SE Michigan I am seeing active construction sites everywhere. The Economist runs headlines like "Are Recessions a Thing of the Past?
I have the same thoughts. However I would say, why are there so many endless help wanted signs?
Probably because the jobs don't provide enough income to be sustainable. I think the system currently is wabbling as employers are failing to keep rate with inflation in regards to pay. This will cause a bottleneck in regards to growth/performance for many businesses and ultimately be their downfall.
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#24The economist is blaming it all on Ukraine but the reality is that rate increases will likely be the primary driver for the recession, at least in the US. And those rates hikes (and roll off of the Fed B/S) are a response to inflation. And as much as the economist or Biden would like to pin inflation on Putin, the reality is that the inflation started a year earlier than the Ukraine war, and is the result of money printing and mass covid subsidies. Ukraine is only making the matter worse.
It is important to recognise the causes because a lot of governments, in the US and Europe are running inflationary policies of mass subsidies in response to inflation, making the matter worse.
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#25We are going to blame teachers and poor people again like in 2008, right?
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#26Stupid question:
Are recessions a healthy part of a normal economic ebb and flow? (Over the long-term)
I suppose an extremely long recession/depression (e.g. 5-10 years) would obviously be bad. But are recessions that last 1-2 years really something to panic over at a macro level?
My (less than informed) assumption is high growth followed by a slight contraction/recession isn’t objectively bad if it helps an economy consolidate and become more efficient during the period of contraction before the next upswing.
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#27Hasn't it been inevitable every years? It seems like the media writes this headline every year. Anyone can find reasons for recession if you look hard enough. Who knows. I am not selling stocks.
If they keep calling it every year they'll eventually be right.
The year of Linux on the desktop!
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#28We are going to blame teachers and poor people again like in 2008, right?
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Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#29When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong.
Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#30Signs I look for of an impending recession: Stagnation. Inflation is a sign of a booming economy. Unemployment. I see help wanted signs everywhere Huge building projects abandoned. Here in SE Michigan I am seeing active construction sites everywhere. The Economist runs headlines like "Are Recessions a Thing of the Past?
> Inflation is the sign of a booming economy.
Or it can be an economy that’s fiscally out of control, or it can be a deeply unproductive economy. There are many possible causes, some of which can be simultaneous. Plenty of countries have had massive inflation without in any way booming.
If you read the article, you’ll find that all the factors you mention are discussed.
> The Economist runs headlines like "Are Recessions a Thing of the Past?
They ran that because some economists were making that claim. Their conclusion was that they aren’t.