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Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

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Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#361

Post by redox99 »

Volundr wrote: post #351
redox99 wrote: post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because actual shareholders read the financial statements, and therefore know how impressive Musk's performance has been so far, unlike people that literally haven't read further than the P/E. Of course maybe Q4 and future quarters may change that, but there's no reason yet for shareholders to want another CEO.

So why are "actual shareholders" selling?

That's just the stock market, I wouldn't read too much into it. Wait for Q4 earnings to draw any real conclusion based on actual performance and not stock market price.

But to address your question, it's completely compatible to think both that a) TSLA is overvalued b) Elon is the best CEO Tesla could have

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#362

Post by redox99 »

alkonaut wrote: post #357
redox99 wrote: post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because actual shareholders read the financial statements, and therefore know how impressive Musk's performance has been so far, unlike people that literally haven't read further than the P/E. Of course maybe Q4 and future quarters may change that, but there's no reason yet for shareholders to want another CEO.

I’d be worried he start pulling in the Twitter management style and do poorly considered large scale changes on a whim. Basically: if he’s an obvious liability at Twitter, can he be the safe bet at Tesla? And can a man really be expected to be CEO of two large companies (not to mention three or more)? I’d not go anywhere near an instrument whose value depends on someone who has suddenly become extremely erratic. I th…

They are doubting him (including myself). But nobody's going to ask for a new CEO as long as Tesla continues to grow like it has been. Only if Tesla misses a few quarters, people would actually consider replacing him.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#363

Post by antasvara »

jemmyw wrote: post #235
antasvara wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Sure but at that point isn't it better to have a lottery to establish who gets to be POTUS instead of going through the motions of campaign expenses and constant media coverage just to shove down people's throats the idea that POTUS is much better and more qualified of a person than all the other citizens combined? The point is to find a person that is qualified and represents the will of the people. Electing a pres…

Actually a lottery system would be way more representative. The chances of a wealthy politician being chosen by random lottery are pretty small. A random person as president every term, that sounds like a better system to me, a person more likely in touch with the everyday problems and with far less political motivation. Plenty of reasons it wouldn't work like immediate corruption by companies wanting their own legis…

There are certainly merits to a lottery system. There are also merits to an electoral system. The larger point I'm making is that choosing a leader is perfectly rational, unlike the original comment implied.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#364

Post by r00fus »

xnx wrote: post #355
samwillis wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The self driving stuff is (in my view) all a red herring. There is no mass market call for it, it's not going to drive further growth. The only thing it may do is help maintain their position in the higher end of the market. They should have brought out another lower cost, smaller car by now. Why haven't they built a commercial van? Why is there no family MPV? The investment in FSD is ultimately a distraction that wa…

> There is no mass market call for it Without any working product available on the market, I don't think potential customers know what they're missing. Having a truly working self-driving feature would be like having a 24 hour private chauffeur. It would dramatically change where people live, where they work, and how they take vacation. I'd probably by weekend home 10 hours away if I could fall asleep in the car on F…

We keep seeing problems day after day with Tesla’s horrible implementation. It’s actually gotten worse in the past few years.

If L4+ self-driving is coming soon, I would doubt that Tesla is the one that finally nails it.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#365

Post by danaris »

xnx wrote: post #355
samwillis wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The self driving stuff is (in my view) all a red herring. There is no mass market call for it, it's not going to drive further growth. The only thing it may do is help maintain their position in the higher end of the market. They should have brought out another lower cost, smaller car by now. Why haven't they built a commercial van? Why is there no family MPV? The investment in FSD is ultimately a distraction that wa…

> There is no mass market call for it Without any working product available on the market, I don't think potential customers know what they're missing. Having a truly working self-driving feature would be like having a 24 hour private chauffeur. It would dramatically change where people live, where they work, and how they take vacation. I'd probably by weekend home 10 hours away if I could fall asleep in the car on F…

Sure, but it's been clear for some time now that that's not coming any time soon.

A few years ago, when progress toward self-driving seemed to be, well, progressing at a decent pace, I was very excited to see a self-driving future.

Now? I'm not realistically sure if I'll live to see one, and I'm only forty.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#366

Post by bb88 »

dragontamer wrote: post #356
bb88 wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

P/E is still 33 as we head into a recession, and Musk continues to anger the traditional customer base that cares about environmental issues. He might make up with Maga republicans, but many of them want a Ford Pickup. We'll see what the 4th Quarter holds but it's still possible that EPS will grow and the price will still tank as it becomes clear that the market becomes saturated with Elon's big ego. Even $68 is woul…

I'm pretty sure the stock will continue to decline. But still, there's a big issue of risk vs reward at play here. A short-seller would have made a significant amount of money if they've been short since $300 (or higher). There's always a time to "Collect your chips off the table". It always feels too early when you do so. But you gotta run the calculation: is staying in and possibly losing everything worth the risk?…

> How much further do you think it really can fall?

Well that's a great question. If you think Tesla is close to bankruptcy than the answer is: all the way down.

But even so, downward pressure can create more downward pressure if Tesla has been over leveraged to obtain loans or to buy Twitter.

Let's say Tesla stock was used as collateral for loans, with a promise that the stock won't go below $100, e.g. If it does go below $100 then someone is on the hook to provide cash collateral to offset the loss of the value of the stock. The primary way to do that is to sell Tesla stock to raise cash. That creates further downward pressure on the stock price.

Or Tesla might be lying about something materially related to the stock price, which you've discovered and are pointing out to the WSJ, because you know, you have a reporter over there on speed dial (not everyone does, of course, but if your trades are $100M at a time then you should).

Or maybe you're betting that Elon is going to self implode and jump out of the window, or murdered because of shady dealings with Russia. Sure that's long odds maybe, but not entirely unheard of.

Derogatory information about a company or it's CEO might be a gamble that's worth taking. I'm sure there's a lot of dirt in Fortune 500 companies that is waiting to be found with the right team of private investigators.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#368

Post by justapassenger »

thrashh wrote: post #324

In my opinion, the valuation of Tesla was reasonable based on the fact that they were making strides in driving AI But at the time, humans did not yet know that FSD seems to be un-achievable with a non-general AI. At least with current techniques. People invested Tesla thinking something was possible and it turns out it isn’t. It happens

People invested in Tesla because Musk openly lied countless times about state of their technology. Everyone who had any serous experience with AI knew he was lying.

This is how I became Elon sceptic, as I know thing or two about AI, and when he announced FSD I knew it was fraud.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#369

Post by justapassenger »

alkonaut wrote: post #312

How is Musk still allowed to be CEO? Serious question. Why don’t large shareholders demand some fresh blood?

Because Tesla (as a corporation) is FTX like fraud, just more sophisticated. Board consists of Elon family and close friends.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#370

Post by dragontamer »

bb88 wrote: post #366
dragontamer wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm pretty sure the stock will continue to decline. But still, there's a big issue of risk vs reward at play here. A short-seller would have made a significant amount of money if they've been short since $300 (or higher). There's always a time to "Collect your chips off the table". It always feels too early when you do so. But you gotta run the calculation: is staying in and possibly losing everything worth the risk?…

> How much further do you think it really can fall? Well that's a great question. If you think Tesla is close to bankruptcy than the answer is: all the way down. But even so, downward pressure can create more downward pressure if Tesla has been over leveraged to obtain loans or to buy Twitter. Let's say Tesla stock was used as collateral for loans, with a promise that the stock won't go below $100, e.g. If it does go…

> Well that's a great question. If you think Tesla is close to bankruptcy than the answer is: all the way down.

Exactly. And what is that value? $0.

If you're someone who has short-sold at $300, that means you've already achieved over 60% of the possible value you can extract (even if TSLA goes _completely_ bankrupt). Or in other words, you've made $200, and the worst it could _possibly_ be for TSLA is a decline to $0, the remaining $110 or so of the stock price.

Its... a bit of an unfavorable odds, don't you think?

------------

Don't get me wrong. I think there's some sketchy as hell things going on to TSLA's books. CFOs were running away from this company for years. I do think that a long-term, hidden fraud case, could be possible... which would lead to a bankruptcy-like $0 (or maybe $1 to $2) valuation.

But I have no such evidence on this. Its purely speculative, based on how the CFOs of TSLA have acted, as well as the weird nepotism moves of Elon Musk + Solar City (Kimball Musk).

A lot of smoke, but without proof, its a rather risky trade.

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