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Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

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Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#151

Post by awinder »

asfgionio2346 wrote: post #52

I find myself confused about the purpose of stock markets. How can we arrange our society around a system that is so massively irrational? A few years ago Tesla was worth as much as the rest of the car industry put together . Even if you believed Tesla was going to become a perfect monopoly, its valuation still would not have been justified. Now people are acting like the sky is falling when this pipsqueak manufactur…

Because there was the specter of a protracted legal battle to close the Twitter acquisition and that risk (of both time and result) was priced into a 25% discount on the acquisition price. That’s why the stock bumped to 50 on the acquisition news and fell off as the deal became imperiled.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#152

Post by kylecordes »

barnacled wrote: post #121
kylecordes wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It appeared to many observers that Musk was mocking the Russian propaganda, he then made the mockery explicit later. I don't understand the thesis that Musk is somehow pro-Russia. Generally his ventures are against Russia interests: SpaceX, launched in the aftermath of Russia being uninterested in selling a leftover rocket to Musk, now dominates the launch industry to the detriment of Russia, among other things halti…

[flagged]

I'm not defending him - repeating an earlier comment: Musk's behaviour is harmful to his personal reputation, his businesses, his investors, and sometimes beyond. Also utterly unbecoming a CEO of companies which routinely have human life at risk, serve critical national security interests, etc.

But I stand by the analysis that Musk's ventures are (so far) opposed to Russian interests. Who knows though? He's pretty erratic over the last couple years. Maybe next year's Tesla model will switch to gas, with a preference for Russia-supplied gas? Am I joking? Mostly, but not 100%.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#153

Post by nverno »

awacs wrote: post #95
nverno wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea, the predictions of someone driven by passion (in this case, a passionate dislike of Musk it appears) probably aren't great in general. But, below $100 seems reasonable - the stock could still be considered 'overpriced' in the current market (at least by P/E).

There's really not much to drive sales for 2023 either. Was watching a summary of new EVs for the year and I'll give him credit on the "jet powered" roadster as very cool, but all the new exciting EVs for the average consumer are coming from GM, Ford, BMW, Toyota (with a very interesting Hydrogen powered offering which is technology I had no idea was even this developed) and a few other smaller startups. I think Ford…

> I think Ford really is going to get traction with the F150 Lightning

I agree, I think this will be huge. Tesla's moat really is narrowing. I'm still rooting for them, though, and I'd like to see some of the other startups get traction as well.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#154

Post by astrange »

scifibestfi wrote: post #66
AzzieElbab wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Examples?

For a time it was considered propaganda to push for peace. It was truly bizarro. Then a few weeks later regime approved voices said we should consider peace and it was no longer considered propaganda.

That's poor game theory.

Russia is a Mongol horde. Suing for peace against tribal border raiders (cooperate) is a rational strategy. If they know you'll always cooperate, then their best strategy is to always come back and attack (defect). Each time you achieve peace you lose land.

So, rational strategies are bad. You want to adopt an irrational strategy where you appear to be a crazy person willing to hurt themselves to get revenge - now attackers won't risk themselves in the first place.

This is why societies develop an "honor culture" and why NATO has that mutual defense clause.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#155

Post by [deleted] »

TheBlight wrote: post #70
kylecordes wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It appeared to many observers that Musk was mocking the Russian propaganda, he then made the mockery explicit later. I don't understand the thesis that Musk is somehow pro-Russia. Generally his ventures are against Russia interests: SpaceX, launched in the aftermath of Russia being uninterested in selling a leftover rocket to Musk, now dominates the launch industry to the detriment of Russia, among other things halti…

[flagged]

[deleted]

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#156

Post by dkjaudyeqooe »

leereeves wrote: post #116
dkjaudyeqooe wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does Musk posting that sort of stuff, which is difficult to get across in text at the best of times, benefit anyone, including Musk? It's a pattern of pointless provocative nonsense by Musk, befitting a teenager, not the CEO of multiple multi-billion dollar companies. I guess he's free to do what he wants, but people are free to read whatever they want into it as well. Dismissing it as humour is not a given.

Provocative nonsense has worked for Musk up till now. He got billions of dollars worth of free media coverage from his antics. And after all of it, here we are still talking about Elon, Tesla, and Twitter.

I'm not sure it's worked in his favour.

Whenever I think about Tesla I wonder why a company that had such a head start with electric cars doesn't basically own like half of the car industry now. He had a massive stock price which could have enabled huge growth.

There's a strong argument to be made that Musk has bungled it.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#157

Post by JumpinJack_Cash »

asfgionio2346 wrote: post #52

I find myself confused about the purpose of stock markets. How can we arrange our society around a system that is so massively irrational? A few years ago Tesla was worth as much as the rest of the car industry put together . Even if you believed Tesla was going to become a perfect monopoly, its valuation still would not have been justified. Now people are acting like the sky is falling when this pipsqueak manufactur…

> > I find myself confused about the purpose of stock markets. How can we arrange our society around a system that is so massively irrational?

Is there any rationality in giving one man (POTUS) more power than all the other 320M citizens combined? Arguably more power than ALL the other humans combined.

What about Hollywood and the acting business? If you picked a random theatre actor would it really underperform Daniel Day Lewis so bad to warrant Lewis paycheck?

Power's Law governs each and every system, on top of that you have stuff such as virality and survivorship bias which are unique to human systems and further amplify Power's Law effects.

That's how you end up with people like POTUS and the Forbes 400, that's also how you end up with stuff like the valuation of Tesla

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#158

Post by astrange »

vardump wrote: post #81
fwip wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk genuinely still uses "epic" to describe things he likes.

Shrug. Maybe it's just me, but I don't things seriously when people use multiple exclamation marks.

Elon talks like a Rick and Morty script. He's serious when he says things like that.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#159

Post by dumbotron »

Gatsky wrote: post #126

Could be another dotcom era Cisco, which still hasn’t regained it’s peak [1]. Cisco had the biggest market cap in the world for a while. Tesla could be an even worse investment if it ends up being just an overvalued car company. It also has the biggest ‘bus factor’ of any company in SP500 ie. if Musk quits/falls ill the price will likely dive severely. [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-much-investing-1-000-12.…

> if Musk quits/falls ill the price will likely dive severely.

I could see this going either way. They won't come up with a wild world-changing idea without him, and you might lose some fanboy investors and employees, but a competent manager with auto industry experience would kill/spin off power wall and solar projects, scale back self-driving promises, and fix reliability issues. It'd be a better car company, but a worse dream company.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#160

Post by [deleted] »

d23 wrote: post #99
asfgionio2346 wrote: post #52

I find myself confused about the purpose of stock markets. How can we arrange our society around a system that is so massively irrational? A few years ago Tesla was worth as much as the rest of the car industry put together . Even if you believed Tesla was going to become a perfect monopoly, its valuation still would not have been justified. Now people are acting like the sky is falling when this pipsqueak manufactur…

Vouched for the comment. Not sure why it was flagged. The rationality of the stock market reminds me of the Winston Churchhill quote: "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others." The market is irrational, but it's based on the best information we have. Admittedly, that information is limited and sucks. Heck, it sucks even if you actually work at a company in question! Even the people there…

[deleted]
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