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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#541

Post by IIAOPSW »

JamesAdir wrote: post #452
IIAOPSW wrote: post #360

Bold and seemingly contradictory predictions by me: -The rapid advances in AI slow down. Dalle and GPTchat will be an exception not a rule in the long run. The fraction of hard AI problems that can be solved with raw force of more parameters and training isn't that large. -Paradoxically, AI will change everything. The advances that are already here haven't caught on yet. Legal documents in particular occupy this swee…

Nice prediction but I think that lawyers will be the last to feel the change. You don't pay a lawyer for crafting a document, you pay a lawyer to take responsibility for the document and to foresee any possible problems.

Oh you'll still pay a law firm for the responsibility of the document, but the firm is going to employ far fewer people for the same work.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#542

Post by abetusk »

Here's one that I think might actually have a chance of happening:

- Stable diffusion but for music. That is, give a text prompt and get a 2-5 minute song out.

So people can say things like "give me a song in the style of Siouxsie and the Banshee's first album, lamenting lost love" and get something reasonable back.

It would also be nice to do a retrospective of what actually was predicted correctly from past predictions, specifically 2022.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#544

Post by SyzygistSix »

codegeek wrote: post #510
SyzygistSix wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seriously. My joke when Windows users say they don't know how to use Linux is that they don't know how to use Windows either but that doesn't stop them.

Yet you don't really try to understand why Windows keeps winning with general users ? Until we change this attitude that Linux is superior and people don't know any better, windows will continue winning.

>Yet you don't really try to understand why Windows keeps winning with general users ?

I don't really care. But I realize it is because they don't value the same things I do. Which is fine. I have no desire to tell people what they want. If they prefer convenience(largely illusory) to privacy and quality, it's none of my business. Let them eat McDonalds, work 50 hours a week, and shop til they drop.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#545

Post by proaralyst »

abetusk wrote: post #542

Here's one that I think might actually have a chance of happening: - Stable diffusion but for music. That is, give a text prompt and get a 2-5 minute song out. So people can say things like "give me a song in the style of Siouxsie and the Banshee's first album, lamenting lost love" and get something reasonable back. It would also be nice to do a retrospective of what actually was predicted correctly from past predict…

This exists, and uses stable diffusion: https://www.riffusion.com/

It was on HN a couple of weeks ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33999162

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#546

Post by cleandreams »

- The flaws in AI become more evident even as models become more powerful. Basically AI algorithms learn patterns, not abstraction, limiting reasoning in fundamental ways.

- Understanding why AI makes mistakes continues to be a black box.

- AI, despite fears, will enliven culture through DALL-e etc .

- We will be in a golden age of science and tech, not so much in fundamental discoveries but in successfully moving away from carbon based energy. Incremental improvements across a vast array of problems with create powerful synergies.

- The problems with globalization are with us for the foreseeable future, leading to increased trading among allies, less with non-allies.

- Labor unrest will increase everywhere.

- 60% Ukraine wins, 35% stalemate or increased fighting, 5% nuclear use.

- If the Ukraine situation stabilizes the stock market will take off.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#548

Post by Huggernaut »

core-utility wrote: post #534
rwmj wrote: post #422

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> - Major world leader dies in plane crash in France in March. Part of an attempted coup. This is, errrr, very specific.

It's not a coup unless it crashes in the Coup region of France.

Otherwise it's just sparkling government overthrow.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#549

Post by ak_111 »

- Tragic assassination or suicide of a major tech figure (probably prompted due to either another huge tech downturn, or victim of culture war).

- Many countries in the 3rd world that significantly depend on wheat and oil import start to feel the real pain from the Ukraine situation leading to revolutions. Probably Egypt or Jordan will be top of the list.

- Russia, China or US (probably two of them) see their leader replaced before end of 2023.

- Huge political momentum in UK to rejoin the EU as people riot in the street due to cost of living crisis. Jeremy Corbyn & Nigel Farage launch a new party (each!).

- A major bank other than Credit Suisse collapses probably due to major fraud that was hiding huge loses from market volatility that were taking place in 2022.

- India economy suffers due to covid cases increasing.

- Major discovery in astronomy lead to serious questioning of standard models in physics (similar to Michelson–Morley experiment, we have long been due one) or biology (if it is to do with aliens).

- Apple postpones launch of iPhone 15, Tim Cook announces departure date and appoints successor. Amazon spins-off AWS as a separate company. Facebook announces a complete revamp of blue app. Google sells DeepMind or merge it with Google Brain and reduces significantly AI recruitment.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#550

Post by oceliker »

mkulinski wrote: post #494
jsemrau wrote: post #489

- Due to recent UI changes people realize that nobody reads their Tweets therefore they will stop using the app. Musk needs to sell more Tesla shares to keep the lights on. But it will be too late. - META gets more fines. Zuckerberg steps back as CEO, becomes an Amateur MMA fighter, ends up fighting Jake Paul. - Google and META launch chatGPT competitors. - TikTok will launch fully AI-generated videos and people will…

> 49ers will win the Superbowl against the Vikings. Both are in the NFC, so unfortunately not possible.

Or fortunately, depending on which team you support :)
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