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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#531

Post by GartzenDeHaes »

- William Shatner passes away.

- A local police bribery scandal will expose corruption at the highest levels of American government. Nothing will change despite public outcry and outrage.

- "Techbros" and Musk will replace MAGA as the strawman of left.

- The US Marines will move forward with plans to replace their weapons with toys drop-shiped from Aliexpress (resold by political cronies of course).

- Americans will continue to ignore the large homeless camps that have formed over the past few years.

- China will not invade Taiwan yet and Japan accelerates rearmament.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#533

Post by thuridas »

thuridas wrote: post #165

- AI will be introduced in some comercial applications. There will be efforts to make it more general. I would also expect more software development applications like "fix all my sonar warnings" or "migrate everything from Java to good Kotlin code" - The Russia invasion of Ukraine will keep bloody and may escalate further. Political unrest in Transnistria or Belarus that may mean a change of regime (maybe with some e…

Extra predictions after some thoughts:

- someone will weaponize AI for online fraud or political manipulación.

- a lot of talks about how to revert your bad micro service separación with distributed monoliths.

- All the money that went to COVID biolabs will be applied to other illness with new medicines vaccines or detection methods.

- Metaverse wont be very used except for gamers

- Remote and async work will become more prevalent.

- won't discover what dark matter is but we will know a few that aren't.

- Some ex-soviet republic may have a muslin uprising now that the talibans control Afghanistan and Rusia is removing troops. It could be Uzbekistan, Tajikistan.

- quantum computing will have small improvements but nothing fully revolutionary (yet)

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#534

Post by core-utility »

rwmj wrote: post #422
testplzignore wrote: post #280

Going with some completely random things this year so that I look like a time traveler. - Magnitude 8 earthquake in British Columbia in November. - Major world leader dies in plane crash in France in March. Part of an attempted coup. - JWST breaks. - Lebron misses 64 games due to a right leg injury. - TCU wins the CFP. - Shipping is blocked for 2 weeks on the Mississippi River near Memphis. - Coinbase collapses. Cryp…

> - Major world leader dies in plane crash in France in March. Part of an attempted coup. This is, errrr, very specific.

It's not a coup unless it crashes in the Coup region of France.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#535

Post by ashotindabrown »

Putin will use nuclear weapons to create a buffer zone in Ukraine between the current Russian border and the future one.

China will prioritize it's economy over the health of it's citizens.

Recession will be mild in the US.

Crypto will continue to lose value.

The marijuana and online betting industries will keep growing in the US.

2024 will bring a republican president.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#536

Post by maerF0x0 »

* Later in the year China will take military action, likely towards Taiwan . America will comply cause they knew all along. The CHIPS act was actually them giving CPC the go ahead. This may be preceded by the next one

* America will have a local crisis that leads to violent unrest. Perhaps coming from either Florida or Texas who are currently very belligerently sick of illegal immigration on their borders. Perhaps around outrage at giving billions to Ukraine to stop Russians from coming across their border, and not to their own (TX, FL) to defend their border? This will leave China more free to act in Taiwan

* AWS will announce a cockroachDB "killer" version (just like MSK aimed at confluent, DocumentDB aimed at MongoDB) , perhaps a new Aurora variant in RDS

* Netflix will have a marked decline in prominence, stock will start to resemble something like Ford (F) -- treated as a bond, and bought for cash flow. Share price will approach $100 (P/E ~10)

* People who lost their jobs, sick of it all, will start to build offline lives, return of the potluck and being grateful for small things, GenZ being so disillusioned by it all and longing for LowFi will actually disconnect and find analog life to be both the lowest fidelity, and the highest pleasure.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#537

Post by mrazomor »

codegeek wrote: post #509
mrazomor wrote: post #385

- Tech jobs at FAANG no longer look attractive or stable. Google hits the final nail in the coffin (not necessarily involving the layoffs) - The age of smart assistants is over - Microsoft will make a huge mistake involving Windows -> governments and companies start making concrete transition to MacOS and Linux desktop (start in late 2023) - The all of above leads to a revolution of smaller companies, their boom, inn…

I love Linux but let's not kid ourselves. Isn't it a couple of decades now when Linux was supposed to kill Windows and it hasn't ? I say this is more of a wishful thinking.

My impression is that the past predictions were based on Linux desktop winning from the tech & UX side. That's unlikely to happen.

I'm betting on the Windows regression. MS is making it happen. Forced reboots, lengthy updates, forcing people to create Microsoft Account, ads and app store. It's horror. I don't understand how people allow that. In addition, MS Office and similar often change the whole UI or the formats. How the people/companies keep up with that?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#538

Post by r_hoods_ghost »

codegeek wrote: post #505
r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #149

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

#1 and #3 are contradicting each other. If deglobalization accelerates, why would hiring be anywhere in the world where labor costs are lower ? Shouldn't it be the opposite ? Also, I disagree with #1 and agree with #3 to some extent. I think Globalization is already here and it will only intensify. It is not a zero sum game and all sides can benefit from it considering they stop thinking of Globalization as a bad thi…

An alternative to globalization is not necessarily isolationism, which I agree is unlikely, but instead the re establishment of distinct blocs that operate largely independently of each other, according to distinct sets of rules, as during the Cold War when you had the (Sino) Soviet bloc, the "West", and a large number of countries that mostly traded with just their immediate neighbours or with former colonial powers. The current, second, period of globalized trade (the first ended in 1914) is built on a rules based international order that is beginning to break down for a variety of reasons, including China's increased economic power, the reemergence of nativism in various polities, Russia's desire to reestablish it's empire (I know that's a simplification but not by that much) and an increasing belief in the EU that the USA is no longer interested in being a guarantor of it's security. A deglobalised world is one where trade still happens, but it is much more likely to be constrained within blocs and be carried out according to different rules and norms depending on where you are.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#539

Post by toyg »

maerF0x0 wrote: post #529
codegeek wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

#1 and #3 are contradicting each other. If deglobalization accelerates, why would hiring be anywhere in the world where labor costs are lower ? Shouldn't it be the opposite ? Also, I disagree with #1 and agree with #3 to some extent. I think Globalization is already here and it will only intensify. It is not a zero sum game and all sides can benefit from it considering they stop thinking of Globalization as a bad thi…

Globalization is only good for GDP and only on first order thinking. Shipping things that could easily have been made local. Second order cost -- Environmental damage. Concentration of ecological damage (eg smog in China, clear cuts instead of selective foresting etc). Decreasing the varietals of foods brought to market so they're stable for shipping , easier to grade / machine. Second order cost -- higher risk to cr…

> the people are just poorer and more desperate

Precisely because of this, globalization is destined to stay. It is the ultimate wet dream of capital: an endless reserve of cheap labor.

Marx might not have got the prognosis right, but his diagnosis still holds.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#540

Post by SyzygistSix »

thefourthchime wrote: post #484
SyzygistSix wrote: post #474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Due to Elon's damage to the brand, Hyundai and Ford take the lead from Tesla. That would imply some kind of manufacturing capacity being magicked from somewhere. Or just a complete bottoming out of Tesla sales, despite them currently being higher than ever. Do you think Musk's being-a-dick quotient can get higher? I'm thinking it tops out about now, barring it becoming some kind of superpower.

Good point, perhaps they don't take the lead in volume, but in the gain of market growth vs Tesla. I think a huge number of people aren't up on Elon's antics as you think. Eventually, over time they will. I'm saying while Elon may be at peak crazy, we're not at the general population knowing that.

Could be. Right now people are too busy buying Model Ys though. I have a difficult time seeing that changing. People like EVs. And the EVs available for sale are by and large Teslas, followed by VW group cars.
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