481–490 of 816 posts
Kind of a cheat guess since it’s already starting to happen now, but I expect it to intensify as more and more people get EVs.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> When hiring begins again a large number of the new hires are either remote or are in other geographical areas where labour costs are lower. I think this is a definite possibility too. I understand the reasons why US tech comp is higher than the rest of the world, but I don't see why it is _that_ much higher - I'm not sure it's sustainable in the new remote-work world.
Americans work 15-20% more hours, at least compared to Europeans ( In almost all fields, Americans make more money. The tech 2X is that historically hiring was done for the Bay Area, where cost of living is crazy, and also just basic supply and demand. If a few dozen engineers can build $100M-1B+ of value, it makes sense to pay them a lot (of investors’ money).
1. More people will slowly come to the realization that electric cars are not as effective as originally thought. As a result, the government may shift their focus to hydrogen-powered vehicles as a new alternative. Ideally, making people think about all the other none starters the government has lead them, and their taxes merrily into. 2. Some people will become aware that their money is not as valuable as it once wa…
* At least one of the next phase of FAANG companies is founded by folks that were part of this layoff cycle. * GPT4 blows everyone's mind and is a full step above ChatGPT * A giant leap happens with self-driving cars, making them finally viable. * Meta continues to implode, Zuck is forced out or brings in someone else to act as CEO. * Elon gets bored of his new toy (Twitter) and moves on to other things * Car product…
>Due to Elon's damage to the brand, Hyundai and Ford take the lead from Tesla. That would imply some kind of manufacturing capacity being magicked from somewhere. Or just a complete bottoming out of Tesla sales, despite them currently being higher than ever. Do you think Musk's being-a-dick quotient can get higher? I'm thinking it tops out about now, barring it becoming some kind of superpower.
I think a huge number of people aren't up on Elon's antics as you think. Eventually, over time they will. I'm saying while Elon may be at peak crazy, we're not at the general population knowing that.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think you're more or less spot on, but very far with the last one on UK. The economy is more resilient than you think, especially the City. I have a feeling the war ironically helped. It prevented the finance from moving out to the continent.
London is resilient. The rest of the country will continue its long decline.
Place your bets as if you were to put your money on it, otherwise it makes no sense :)
And if you actually believe enough in something that you'd put money on it, then do it, and you may profit :)
ChatGPT-generated blogspam will be the tipping point that launches Marginalia Search as the dominant searching platform. I will become incredibly rich overnight as a result, go out and celebrate, get a bit drunk, and post a $10M bid for twitter as a joke. Elon jumps at the opportunity to get rid of it. Failing to backpedal, I'll end up buying the company, but I won't have any idea how to run twitter. Someone will twe…
Digital media companies continue to decline as money, attention and talent migrate into climate tech.
There will be several multi-billion dollar deals or acquisitions or exits in the climate tech space despite a supposed tech “recession,” and even the saltiest HN commenter will realize a global transition away from fossil fuels involves a TAM in the trillions of dollars.
People will realize that putting pictures and video on a website is actually pretty easy and boring, and the “tech industry”, especially in the SF Bay Area, will pivot to actually developing novel hard technology.
SF will be drowning in empty PDR space, and the Board Of Supervisors will finally start enforcing the vacancy tax, forcing landlords to lower the rent.
That, coupled with the Twitter bankruptcy and further rounds of Meta layoffs, will mean lots of bored, smart people will have room to experiment in a way we haven’t seen in over a decade. The renaissance will seem obvious in hindsight.
Meanwhile, “tech” people who moved their dumb crypto laundering startup to Miami will continue to sink, literally and figuratively.
- META gets more fines. Zuckerberg steps back as CEO, becomes an Amateur MMA fighter, ends up fighting Jake Paul.
- Google and META launch chatGPT competitors. - TikTok will launch fully AI-generated videos and people will love them.
- China will be severely impacted by Covid seeing 3-5 Million COVID death.
- The recession in the US will be mild as "main street" thrives from people traveling, going out, and living an non-digital offline life.
- The Ukraine/Russia war will continue throughout the year
- Further crackdown on fincluencers (especially crypto) by regulatory organs worldwide
- New regulations on crypto projects especially NFTs
- Disney has to realize that they lost 3B on FTX and have to sell Marvel to Sony.
- There will be a wave of delistings as unprofitable SPAC listed companies realize that they can't raise capital cheap anymore.
- 49ers will win the Superbowl against the Vikings.
- Manchester City will win the Champions League
1. Twitter gets resold for a fraction of the original price tag It seems clear at this point that without any kind of viable plan to get advertisers, employees, regulators and key content creators back on side the current trajectory will continue towards failure at a rapid pace which which is going to force them to sell. The original price was already wildly above market rate and the brand has been damaged so much by…
I would further add that a lot of companies will jump on this bandwagon until they realize they actually need SEO and accessibility and then move back to something similar to SSR.