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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#411

Post by IIAOPSW »

SyzygistSix wrote: post #403
IIAOPSW wrote: post #360

Bold and seemingly contradictory predictions by me: -The rapid advances in AI slow down. Dalle and GPTchat will be an exception not a rule in the long run. The fraction of hard AI problems that can be solved with raw force of more parameters and training isn't that large. -Paradoxically, AI will change everything. The advances that are already here haven't caught on yet. Legal documents in particular occupy this swee…

Most of these are pretty good, if not a big stretch. >First the plague, now the war, next the famine! I'm noting no predictions on this page regarding the Colorado River and the drought in the US West. Will the drought continue? Get worse? Could it cause a famine? Or just widespread adoption of efficient watering systems?

There's more than a few "oh shit the food supply" stories sizzling in the background. Wheat exports from Ukraine/Russia is an obvious one. Spotted lantern fly eating the crops we like to eat in the American North East is another. Colorado River drought is yet a third. They might all be nothing, but only one of them has to be something.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#412

Post by MathYouF »

IIAOPSW wrote: post #360

Bold and seemingly contradictory predictions by me: -The rapid advances in AI slow down. Dalle and GPTchat will be an exception not a rule in the long run. The fraction of hard AI problems that can be solved with raw force of more parameters and training isn't that large. -Paradoxically, AI will change everything. The advances that are already here haven't caught on yet. Legal documents in particular occupy this swee…

The real moment of truth will be if any models start to assist massively in research in the hard sciences.

Based on the quality of outputs I get when asking for help with somewhat complex AI research problems, I think it'll likely help accelerate the pace of other research as well, and discovery will be limited by people's speed of running the tests it suggests and feeding it back the results.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#413

Post by SyzygistSix »

jensneuse wrote: post #26

It's very interesting to go to last year's predictions ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236 ) and search for the word "Russia".

If 2022 is anything to go by, the opposite of what we see on HN can be predicted. So many poor or completely wrong predictions.

"Red tsunami in 2022 mid-terms, Democrats trounced in both the House and Senate. Biden becomes a lame duck." "Russia invades Ukraine with no push back." Hahahahahaha!

"- Elon says something so incredibly stupid that this time it affects his company's performance." Well, this one finally came true. Maybe.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#414

Post by brutusborn »

usehackernews wrote: post #375
simonebrunozzi wrote: post #317

My 2022 [0] were (Christmas 2022 comment in parenthesis): - Bitcoin will go down to $12,000 (almost nobody saw this coming - back then it was a bit below $50,000) - One EU country will default (not Italy), the EU will bail it out (not exactly) - China will enter a recession (got this one) - 2022 will be the year of the hottest and coldest temperatures on record (quite accurate) - and also highest CO2 produced on reco…

The bitcoin one I’d disagree with, it was quite easy to see the drop. It never hit 12k, but my target was always 17k, which it did hit. I publicly told many people who asked when it was around 50k to wait for 17k. Simple analysis made this quite clear - The last three crashes had an 85% drop in price, based on the trend, 17k was the target. I don’t see it going to 5k, to this point, the crash has followed historical…

Are the % drops in crashes usually correlated? Or is there a reason that they are correlated in this case?

I’ve never looked into Technical Analysis but I’m intrigued.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#415

Post by forinti »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #394
mrazomor wrote: post #385

- Tech jobs at FAANG no longer look attractive or stable. Google hits the final nail in the coffin (not necessarily involving the layoffs) - The age of smart assistants is over - Microsoft will make a huge mistake involving Windows -> governments and companies start making concrete transition to MacOS and Linux desktop (start in late 2023) - The all of above leads to a revolution of smaller companies, their boom, inn…

Year of the Linux again huh. Windows isn’t popular because it’s good, it’s popular because everyone knows it and Microsoft has good enough relations with every large organization in the world. MacOS is too expensive to seriously replace windows. Smart assistants will take off as chatGPT becomes commoditized, but it will look very different since you’ll have to pay for it.

Windows is popular with users, because they are afraid of Linux, not because they really know how to use it.

Windows is popular with sysadmins because it is easier to administer a large enterprise with it.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#416

Post by mrazomor »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #394
mrazomor wrote: post #385

- Tech jobs at FAANG no longer look attractive or stable. Google hits the final nail in the coffin (not necessarily involving the layoffs) - The age of smart assistants is over - Microsoft will make a huge mistake involving Windows -> governments and companies start making concrete transition to MacOS and Linux desktop (start in late 2023) - The all of above leads to a revolution of smaller companies, their boom, inn…

Year of the Linux again huh. Windows isn’t popular because it’s good, it’s popular because everyone knows it and Microsoft has good enough relations with every large organization in the world. MacOS is too expensive to seriously replace windows. Smart assistants will take off as chatGPT becomes commoditized, but it will look very different since you’ll have to pay for it.

MS has a limited amount of credit. It will expire eventually. If MS makes a bad move, it might kick off an avalanche. People leaving FAANG etc., might kick start new companies that help improving support, breaking the old relations, and building new ones.

And ChatGPT won't take off, IMO. It's a nice piece of tech, but lacks what's needed for productionisation. I didn't even include it in 2023 prediction, as 2023 won't even properly start before people forget it.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#417

Post by germinalphrase »

SyzygistSix wrote: post #403
IIAOPSW wrote: post #360

Bold and seemingly contradictory predictions by me: -The rapid advances in AI slow down. Dalle and GPTchat will be an exception not a rule in the long run. The fraction of hard AI problems that can be solved with raw force of more parameters and training isn't that large. -Paradoxically, AI will change everything. The advances that are already here haven't caught on yet. Legal documents in particular occupy this swee…

Most of these are pretty good, if not a big stretch. >First the plague, now the war, next the famine! I'm noting no predictions on this page regarding the Colorado River and the drought in the US West. Will the drought continue? Get worse? Could it cause a famine? Or just widespread adoption of efficient watering systems?

The west coast was desert once and to desert it will return.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#418

Post by thefourthchime »

bsuvc wrote: post #335

1. We will learn that one or more traditional banks have taken on cryptocurrency exposure and will need to be bailed out to prevent another financial crisis. 2. Politicians will introduce legislation to regulate AI, with the initial focus on copyright protection, but it will be defeated. Court cases are brought against companies for training ML using copyrighted data, setting up an eventual supreme court battle in co…

> Year of Linux desktop

Haha, I think I've been hearing this one since 1998!

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#419

Post by JasonFruit »

scrollaway wrote: post #362
JasonFruit wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> Zelensky is already a US puppet Get this shit out of HN and back to RT, please. The US is not the center of Europe, and Ukraine is its own country.

We don't spend $115 billion on a country's war effort unless we are confident we're in control.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#420

Post by shahidkarimi »

My predictions for 2022:

1- The US economy and the USD will keep declining.

2- In various EU nations, certain religious people will cause unease and there will be numerous attacks.

2- The world's perspective on two-headed hybrid regimes will soften and begin to accept it. The chinese type system will continue to be adopted by nations in Asia and the Middle East.

3- After July, there will be another brief cryptocurrency rise.

4- Due to AI-based applications, there is too much noise and uncertainty. Politicians and governments will claim to regulate AI.

5- A large metropolis in a south Asian nation will be completely destroyed by a major flood.

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