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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#341

Post by varjag »

hutzlibu wrote: post #102
varjag wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree it is not likely but their made up reasons have nothing to do with it. The narratives shift weekly and at no point they've been internally consistent.

Hm, I surely did not follow every speech of Putin or RT news in general, but as far as I did, the narrative that the Ukrainian needs to be liberated as Russians, did not change and has been pretty consistent. What did change, were the various threats towards the west and stated goals of what to achieve and back and forth with mobilisation and such. Putins goal is clear, he wants a Eurasian Empire. But he is apparentl…

No, the narrative is anywhere from "we're defending Russia proper from invasion" to "we're going after every Ukrainian and their children" between different (and sometimes the same) TV hosts and public figures.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#342

Post by Aeolun »

bitL wrote: post #327

Russia will have unexpected gains in Ukraine and US will decide to directly intervene using armies from Poland, Baltic states, Romania, Slovakia, Czechia, starting the WW3, escalating beyond all prior limits rapidly. EU will get completely nuked within a day, destroying all cities above 100k, leaving only pockets of rural areas survivable. UK and Ireland will be swept by a massive tsunami from a nuke detonated underw…

Isn’t it a bit silly to predict something none of us will be around for to appreciate you being right?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#343

Post by [deleted] »

ozarker wrote: post #322
testplzignore wrote: post #280

Going with some completely random things this year so that I look like a time traveler. - Magnitude 8 earthquake in British Columbia in November. - Major world leader dies in plane crash in France in March. Part of an attempted coup. - JWST breaks. - Lebron misses 64 games due to a right leg injury. - TCU wins the CFP. - Shipping is blocked for 2 weeks on the Mississippi River near Memphis. - Coinbase collapses. Cryp…

> Tom Brady Super Bowl MVP He can’t keep getting away with it :(

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#344

Post by Aeolun »

hikingsimulator wrote: post #21

Here is what I expect: 1, The Sunak Government will further undo the banking ring-fencing rules in England so large banks can play with British pension funds. Down the line (6-10 years), there will be a massive pension crisis in England. 2, The USA will start delivering ATACM missiles to Ukraine (this may prompt Russia to make an example: a nuclear detonation over the black sea or some Ukraine field as an attempt to…

> 6, the USA suffers a right wing terrorist attack against a gay pride event in June with 30+ deaths

I like how you specify the month and the number of deaths to make it a bit more of a challenge.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#345

Post by wokwokwok »

klntsky wrote: post #264
r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #149

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

> The market for stock photography and grunt level copy writing collapses entirely. You assume that with the new technology the total number of people needed in this sector will be reduced, but I think the industry will simply adjust, and the only visible result would be that more content will be produced by the same number of people. This is a competitive market (your success is determined by the amount of money you…

> the only visible result would be that more content will be produced by the same number of people

That’s not what they predicted; the “we just get more content! People won’t lose their jobs…” argument aside, the market that is willing to spend money on content seems reasonably likely to drop off.

People will continue to want content, yes.

People will continue to buy content, yes.

…however, it seems difficult to believe that as companies that can produce the content significantly cheaper and at higher volumes emerge, traditional providers of eg. stock photography, will manage to convince people to keep paying the same amount for it.

I personally predict a wave of race to the bottom startups that cheaply generate content, driving the costs to consumers down. Yay.

However, companies will accordingly reduce their spend, and move off of traditional providers onto the “super cheap” new comers, resulting in an overall collapse in the total spend on content, even as companies get more for the money they do spend.

There’s plenty of precedent for this.

If the marginal cost of producing X drop to virtually zero, people don’t just consume more of it (well, maybe a bit more), they mostly just spend less money and buy the cheapest product.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#346

Post by varjag »

jessaustin wrote: post #117
varjag wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

…exactly what they said? They were saying they are not going to invade as late as February 20, 2022. Then they said their objectives are total conquest on February 24, 2022 in a public TV address. They threatened nukes (everyone from Putin himself to TV pundits) for months until Xi publicly chided him. But I am impressed how one can take perhaps the most morally unambiguous conflict in the century so far and still ma…

Was there something ambiguous about destroying the most prosperous African nation?

I guess that part when Gaddafi promised to massacre the revolting cities street by street got many frowning.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#347

Post by bitL »

Aeolun wrote: post #342
bitL wrote: post #327

Russia will have unexpected gains in Ukraine and US will decide to directly intervene using armies from Poland, Baltic states, Romania, Slovakia, Czechia, starting the WW3, escalating beyond all prior limits rapidly. EU will get completely nuked within a day, destroying all cities above 100k, leaving only pockets of rural areas survivable. UK and Ireland will be swept by a massive tsunami from a nuke detonated underw…

Isn’t it a bit silly to predict something none of us will be around for to appreciate you being right?

It's just a prediction on the very negative end of the spectrum. It's done in military gaming all the time ("what's the worst that could happen?") but typically nobody treats it too seriously exactly for the reason you mentioned.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#348

Post by SyzygistSix »

voisin wrote: post #188
rsj_hn wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> Around the same time, it's clear that there are more than 200K Ukrainian dead and all Narratives of them winning the war or even maintaining a stalemate are gone, even from western media. I am curious as to what leads you to make this prediction?

Honestly it sounds like they are sick in their soul rather than coming from a place of logic or insight.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#349

Post by ramesh31 »

sweezyjeezy wrote: post #310
r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #149

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

> When hiring begins again a large number of the new hires are either remote or are in other geographical areas where labour costs are lower. I think this is a definite possibility too. I understand the reasons why US tech comp is higher than the rest of the world, but I don't see why it is _that_ much higher - I'm not sure it's sustainable in the new remote-work world.

I think SV will continue to pay top prices for world class talent to relocate there and work in office. Think AI PhDs, chip designers, systems programmers, graphics experts, and the like. But the days of 100k interns and 300k SWE 4's are over, and that portion of the workforce will devolve to the national average.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#350

Post by SyzygistSix »

r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #183
rsj_hn wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

It's not a very optimistic picture is it? Definitely feels like we're heading in to one of those "things are going to get worse before they get better" periods

This is optimistic from OP's point of view.
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