1. Less people buying the woke "narratives".
2. Groups of the radical left becoming violent.
3. More wars.
Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
231–240 of 816 posts
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#232Earlier quoted context omitted.
A few obvious ways: 1. Russia starts "testing" nukes and a deal is brokered that pisses off both Ukraine and Russia but allows them both to claim "victory", save face and not start a thermonuclear war (this is Henry Kissinger's take); or 2. US loses its taste of financing and completely backing the Ukrainian war if a big recession hits here (hard to support Ukraine when we start "really" feeling a economic hit at hom…
All good, but I would add a more likely senario: A stalemate where Ukraine efectivly regains almost all of its territory, Russia is unable to sustain a meaningful campaign, but Russia continiues limited attacks with missiles and some artilery pokes near the border to avoid lossing face.
This would gel very well with scenario #3 as well!
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#233Can people please attach probabilities to their predictions? That way we can evaluate after the fact how well people did. Doing so is literally impossible without probabilities assigned.
> That way we can evaluate after the fact how well people did. How exactly do you propose to do that given the binary knowledge of the event occuring or not...
Let's say somebody makes a prediction that something will happen, and it doesn't. You could evaluate the prediction differently if they gave it a 55% chance of happening vs a 95% chance.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#234Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#235Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#236Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, a new body can still talk all the same old shit, but give in to a (probably) popular (in Russia) sentiment to chill out. I don't know what the propaganda would be to say that they both won and also don't have parts of Ukraine.
Well let's hope so. I can't honestly say that I know all the intricate details (note how I said "senior Kremlin figures" because other than Medvedev, Prigozhin and Shoigu I don't know everyone involved) but I am a little pessimistic that a sudden change in President would make things better.
Better possibly in the sense that they withdraw, don't force as many Russians to die in actual combat, and mostly use missiles and border skirmishes for propaganda purposes. This could easily be pitched up as "keeping up the fight" but ease the pressure on Russian citizens ... so a sort of win?
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#237In the world:
Euthanasia becomes a hot button issue and is legalized through referendums in most Western European countries.
The Ukraine war ends after Russia starts gaining back territory in February, some kind of peace deal is reached, Ukraine loses the occupied territories and Europe agrees to pay for most of the reconstruction.
We see the first feature-length movie with AI-generated video.
On my end:
I buy a house.
My company reaches 10K MRR.
I get married to Scarlett Johansson.
I tried to be conservative in my predictions but I think some of them might be a long shot.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#238Earlier quoted context omitted.
A few obvious ways: 1. Russia starts "testing" nukes and a deal is brokered that pisses off both Ukraine and Russia but allows them both to claim "victory", save face and not start a thermonuclear war (this is Henry Kissinger's take); or 2. US loses its taste of financing and completely backing the Ukrainian war if a big recession hits here (hard to support Ukraine when we start "really" feeling a economic hit at hom…
> Russia starts "testing" nukes and a deal is brokered that pisses off both Ukraine and Russia but allows them both to claim "victory", save face and not start a thermonuclear war (this is Henry Kissinger's take); or That seems like a bad precedent - nuclear blackmail and aggression works, you get rewarded with territory/concessions. It is certainly a possibility, but in a way loss of credibility for US/West. > US lo…
>That seems like a bad precedent
We do it all the time with North Korea.
>... - nuclear blackmail and aggression works, you get rewarded with territory/concessions.
I don't think the concession would be territory, more likely a treaty to block NATO membership for Ukraine (say no Ukraine NATO membership for 20 years, or something like that). Possibly also deny access to join the EU (even though that idea has heavy steam right now).
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#239Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#2401. Twitter gets resold for a fraction of the original price tag It seems clear at this point that without any kind of viable plan to get advertisers, employees, regulators and key content creators back on side the current trajectory will continue towards failure at a rapid pace which which is going to force them to sell. The original price was already wildly above market rate and the brand has been damaged so much by…
Was 2022 a year with progress in accessibility when dealing with canvas rendered websites?