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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
221–230 of 816 posts
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#222A lot of people saying AI generated content will dominate search engines and the web in general. What will happen when AI kills all human generated content? There wont be new training data to scrape. What happens? Will it consume itself in a death spiral of bullshit content or will it make us so dependent that its bullshit content will become common sense to our future (even more) brain damaged selves?
Humans role will eventually shift to validating the outputs of AIs and creating training datasets.
Now: human makes content -> AI learns Then: AI makes content -> humans filter AI content.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#223Here is what I expect: 1, The Sunak Government will further undo the banking ring-fencing rules in England so large banks can play with British pension funds. Down the line (6-10 years), there will be a massive pension crisis in England. 2, The USA will start delivering ATACM missiles to Ukraine (this may prompt Russia to make an example: a nuclear detonation over the black sea or some Ukraine field as an attempt to…
Sunak wouldn’t have anything to gain by doing that, pension crises cause the govt a headache and they’ll want to avoid it just as much. The last crises cost liz her job.
Are you sure you’re not thinking of the relaxation of ring fencing between investment banks and retail banks? That I know is more of a possibility and not related to pensions.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#224Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the eventual common use for WASM will eventually be DRM and related types of page code "security" and obfuscation. Basically a way for companies to "protect" their tech/IP from easy duplication while not having to carry the expensive burden of the cost of back-end processing in the cloud.
Is WASM harder to de-obfuscate than your typical transpiled/minimized JS soup?
From the perspective of salespeople and managers ... maybe!
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#225Earlier quoted context omitted.
A few obvious ways: 1. Russia starts "testing" nukes and a deal is brokered that pisses off both Ukraine and Russia but allows them both to claim "victory", save face and not start a thermonuclear war (this is Henry Kissinger's take); or 2. US loses its taste of financing and completely backing the Ukrainian war if a big recession hits here (hard to support Ukraine when we start "really" feeling a economic hit at hom…
re #3, aren't the senior Kremlin figures just as pro-war/Z as Putin (or even more so)? This would suggest that unless politics in Russia is completely upended in the event of Putin dying or being incapacitated, the war would likely continue or escalate :-/
Well, a new body can still talk all the same old shit, but give in to a (probably) popular (in Russia) sentiment to chill out. I don't know what the propaganda would be to say that they both won and also don't have parts of Ukraine.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#226Earlier quoted context omitted.
re #3, aren't the senior Kremlin figures just as pro-war/Z as Putin (or even more so)? This would suggest that unless politics in Russia is completely upended in the event of Putin dying or being incapacitated, the war would likely continue or escalate :-/
Well, a new body can still talk all the same old shit, but give in to a (probably) popular (in Russia) sentiment to chill out. I don't know what the propaganda would be to say that they both won and also don't have parts of Ukraine.
Well let's hope so. I can't honestly say that I know all the intricate details (note how I said "senior Kremlin figures" because other than Medvedev, Prigozhin and Shoigu I don't know everyone involved) but I am a little pessimistic that a sudden change in President would make things better.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#227Let's see
1. I think the electronic component shortage will not be as bad but still not normalised. 2. Europe faces another severe heat wave in summer 3. Russian-Ukrainian war will have Russia attempt another breakthrough in earlish 23 but largely face another standstill, both start easing their language around requirements for peace. 4. Europe will continue rearmament, possible some nascent attempts at more unified supply buying 5. Twitter is going to slow it's pace of policy changes, Musk will eventually move aside but with tight reins, Twitter will more or less look much like it did prior to his take over. Maybe attempts at an everything app, but unlikely and expect failures in it anyway. 6. Meta will face disappointing sales of vr headsets at Christmas. Zuckerberg will be facing greater pressure to act on the losses, possibly spin off the VR. 7. The Microsoft Activision deal will face serious threat, will be a general horn for increased action by regulators across the board on mergers and acquisitions. 8. Increased competitiveness between OpenAI, Google, Facebook and Microsoft towards creating a viable AI product, good for us, it should keep prices reasonable.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#2281. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…
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I'm not sure of your motivation either, but we all have our biases; those are powerful predictions, and it's a shame you've been hit with such a downvote attack.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#229Earlier quoted context omitted.
A few obvious ways: 1. Russia starts "testing" nukes and a deal is brokered that pisses off both Ukraine and Russia but allows them both to claim "victory", save face and not start a thermonuclear war (this is Henry Kissinger's take); or 2. US loses its taste of financing and completely backing the Ukrainian war if a big recession hits here (hard to support Ukraine when we start "really" feeling a economic hit at hom…
Apart from (1), the rest of your scenarios are unlikely. Assuming (1) does not happen, there is likely little chance of the West seriously dropping its support for Ukraine. Maybe popular opinion of citizens will increasingly turn against the support, but the governments know very well what kind of message not supporting Ukraine sends to Russia. And, Putin may well have a health/life issue, but if power passes to anot…
For #2, imagine how fast a new Trump presidency (unlikely, I think, but you take my point) would stop shipments to Ukraine. Also a very large economic impact here (say something twice the size of 2008) might have our government at least focused on something else rather than having to explain why a bunch of citizens are homeless and hungry but we are sending billions to Ukraine every month. It is one thing to support a war across the world when it is "just money" and everyone here is mostly fat and happy. It is altogether something else when you have to start worrying about your own family at home.
As for #3 a new person taking power can bend to local sentiment to keep up pressure but without the full commitment that Putin is making in Ukraine. This could play well locally (I suspect not a lot of Russians are happy to die for Ukraine) and be more "Western friendly" than a full-on war.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#230Here is what I expect: 1, The Sunak Government will further undo the banking ring-fencing rules in England so large banks can play with British pension funds. Down the line (6-10 years), there will be a massive pension crisis in England. 2, The USA will start delivering ATACM missiles to Ukraine (this may prompt Russia to make an example: a nuclear detonation over the black sea or some Ukraine field as an attempt to…
Sunak wouldn’t have anything to gain by doing that, pension crises cause the govt a headache and they’ll want to avoid it just as much. The last crises cost liz her job. Are you sure you’re not thinking of the relaxation of ring fencing between investment banks and retail banks? That I know is more of a possibility and not related to pensions.
The Lord Mayor of the City of London, Nicholas Lyons, is a big lobbyist in favor of undoing the ring-fencing. I'm confident he'll try to get it done by the currently very friendly government of Sunak while he's in the yearly office -- he has till next November.
The relaxation for banks under a certain amount of AuM is already in the pipe -- see Lyons' recent interview with Bloomberg. I'm expecting him to push for a larger increase of the ceiling amount this year, and get it. That's why I said "further undo."
Maybe the ring-fencing will be fully removed but that won't happen this year.