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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#151
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Server side rendering with light weight JavaScript. The point you make about most cases not needing it is spot on.

This sounds more like a wish than a prediction. I'm saying this as someone who used to love intercooler.js (and really dislikes htmx).

It’s a necessity. The end user experience for React isn’t necessarily the best.

Where it exists, the web is probably the wrong solution for the problem.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#152
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Server side rendering with light weight JavaScript. The point you make about most cases not needing it is spot on.

This is how most products start and then inevitably it starts to require more complex interactive pages so you have to add react and then it becomes easier for everything to be react. Client side rendering is not strictly tied to single page apps. At a previous company we had rails render out a div containing all the data the page needed to mount the react component. No complex api design, no weird permission issues,…

I’ve worked on extremely complex projects (many hundreds of endpoints, many TB of data). React definitely does not scale for those at all. It has a niche for a few use cases but it’s terrible for most I have found.

It’s all about applying the correct solution to the problem and that isn’t the web if it involves react.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#153
1) ChatGPT replaces search engines making incredible progress in automation of relatively high skilled jobs.

2) Further deterioration of the world police area with authoritarian regimes growing more bold in territorial ambitions. Most concrete the Turkish Regime indirectly with supporting Azerbaijan aggression against Armenia and directly with further invasions into Northern Syria.

3) No end to the Ukraine war, still no invasion of Taiwan

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#154
post #4

- The slow death of SPAs and client side JavaScript (including WASM in that) will commence due to the dubious ROI. - War against humans and AI commences. The AI content farms will destroy everything by reducing the signal to noise ratio so that all content is worthless regardless of who wrote it. - Major cloud provider will screw something up and lose a lot of clients leading to a minor shift of corporates back to th…

- War against humans and AI commences. The AI content farms will destroy everything by reducing the signal to noise ratio so that all content is worthless regardless of who wrote it. Honestly, since the release of ChatGPT and Stable Diffusion this Us something I have been thinking about a lot. I we thought that what we saw in the last 10-15 years was an explosion in content available online, we cannot even imagine th…

Probably through digital signatures and sovereign identity.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

- War against humans and AI commences. The AI content farms will destroy everything by reducing the signal to noise ratio so that all content is worthless regardless of who wrote it. Honestly, since the release of ChatGPT and Stable Diffusion this Us something I have been thinking about a lot. I we thought that what we saw in the last 10-15 years was an explosion in content available online, we cannot even imagine th…

Probably through digital signatures and sovereign identity.

Adding more technology isn’t going to help this.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#156
post #104
post #43

Mostly web, as that's my area of expertise. - Start of the movement from cloud/SaaS computing/storage to edge devices/client-side/on-prem. - Amount of new successful SaaS orgs will decimate. The only 2 SaaS markets that will grow will be highly vertical/specialized or very big orgs offering commodity. They both will use value based pricing, but for the first growth will be sales-led and prices will be high, and the s…

> People will start discovering P2P and start using it. I recently tried to get into P2P for web apps, only to discover that P2P is increasingly a lie. 100% of my users are unable to connect to 100% of my users, due to CGNATs and IPv4/IPv6 mismatches. I know the percentages are better for some projects. Maybe once we are fully IPv6 and carriers drop their NATs. Won't happen next year, if ever, especially the latter.

We are working in decentralised hole punching with QUIC to help enable P2P.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#159
- Life in China will return to the 2019 normal (except for mask wearing), with the country eliminating quarantine for international arrivals, one of the last vestiges of the zero Covid policy, in spring. There are no more large-scale protests, despite people noticing there are more deaths than the gov is letting on.

- China will not go to war over Taiwan in 2023. However, we’ll continue down that path, with more incidents like Pelosi’s visit. (I think it’s unlikely we see 2030 without a war)

- The war in Ukraine drags on. It does not end, though Russia’s defeat looks inevitable by year’s end. No nukes are used.

- Starship makes 3 orbital flights without incident, but no landing of the first or second stage at the launch tower is attempted.

- Twitter survives. The fediverse also continues to grow, but it remains small compared to Twitter as 1) Twitter continues doing an OK job, and 2) it becomes clear that running a fediverse instance at scale is not trivial.

- None of Siri, Google, or Alexa integrate ChatGPT, due to its propensity to hallucinate falsehoods. Nevertheless, a couple breakthrough products in specific domains do incorporate a version of it.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you predict that it will end?

A few obvious ways: 1. Russia starts "testing" nukes and a deal is brokered that pisses off both Ukraine and Russia but allows them both to claim "victory", save face and not start a thermonuclear war (this is Henry Kissinger's take); or 2. US loses its taste of financing and completely backing the Ukrainian war if a big recession hits here (hard to support Ukraine when we start "really" feeling a economic hit at hom…

Apart from (1), the rest of your scenarios are unlikely.

Assuming (1) does not happen, there is likely little chance of the West seriously dropping its support for Ukraine. Maybe popular opinion of citizens will increasingly turn against the support, but the governments know very well what kind of message not supporting Ukraine sends to Russia.

And, Putin may well have a health/life issue, but if power passes to another person, it is likely to be someone even more hawkish than Putin. If you follow Russian opinion it seems Putin is seen as rather soft.

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