Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

A new AI model will emerge and offer people a cure for loneliness, remembering, (seemingly) caring, filling the void. This will disrupt the social networks big time.

AI generated interactive porn grows expotentially.

AI generated Content-on-demand emerges. People-generated content distupted: good stuff appreciates in value, anything less than exceptional becomes near worthless. The demise of influencers.

Ukraine war ends with Russia suffering internal issues. Putin dead. Before that happens, Poland very close to engaging Belarus militarily.

EU economy recovers.

We've been leaning heavily into Vue3+TSX over at https://radiopaper.com which addresses some of these gripes. It's true there's more "magic" and ceremony around creating components than just a simple function, but not much – you just return what you expect to render from the `setup` component method and all is well. You also get niceties like well-typed props & emitted events, and even runtime prop data validation if desired, built right in.

Vue3 also has `FunctionalComponent` now for the cases where you really want a simple component from a function – and again props work beautifully with Typescript.

In contrast, I'm finding integrating Typescript with the largely-JS React codebase I work with on the day job to be a bit nightmarish – the amount of prop destructuring which seems to happen in every single component makes typing their signatures a repetitive, tedious affair (largely due to TS's handling of destructured arguments). I'm not sure how universal this style is in modern React but I do seem to come across it pretty frequently. To be fair, React's simplicity does make it eminently typeable, this is more of a code-stylistic issue.

All that said, appreciated reading your take on the two frameworks – it's extremely difficult to remain objective about the tools we use day in and out and these sorts of comparisons absolutely help. We all want to be moving towards systems we enjoy building with and will continue enjoying for decades - I for one am infinitely grateful to React and its community for bringing JSX/TSX into the world (which I'm sure is still a somewhat controversial stance in 2022- but for me personally, after a 6 or so months with it, the firsthand experience told me all I needed to know). Happy xmas to you!

Life is going to be unpredictable !!

AI:

- Composable language models will allow millions of people to collaborate on building/training AI without needing unusual GPUs or supercomputers

- Large numbers will be prime factored using guesses generated by giant "AI" statistical models. No one will understand why it works.

- The internet is flooded with AI generated non-sense

- Search engines are forced to limit the sites they search to ones with verified human generated content

- A new social network will form in which friend / connection requests are processed by passing physical business cards

- Physical business cards have a renaissance as a cottage industry

Health:

- Both ADHD and Autism will be shown to be largely caused by pollution. A group of wealthy Californians will build a small city of giant greenhouses with filtered air for their children to grow up in.

- Personal air quality monitoring devices will become ubiquitous in South Korea. At least one of these devices will claim to be able to detect viruses in the air. In 7 years The New York times will write a long form investigative journalism article about how the claim of virus detection was a giant fraud supported at the next to highest levels of government.

- There will be a small movement of cis-gendered woman who take testosterone believing it helps them better compete with men. At least two of them will be very successfully in a non-athletic field to great controversy. At least one of them will publicly suffer severe health consequences.

Military tech:

- Ukraine will develop a new inexpensive, mid tech, light weight weapon that changes warfare significantly

Economy:

- The tech jobs market will continue to crash for 4 months. Meanwhile, companies will still need their software maintained. Senior developer compensation will paradoxically increase.

Political:

- Ukraine will retake all but the eastern most sliver of Donetsk and Krym

- India will invade China to appease a large and violent nationalistic movement. They will take approximately 1.2 kilometers of barren mountain terrain. Every one will talk about it as if the world is ending. There will be only two causalities.

- Long term energy sovereignty will become a dominant political theme

- Biden will spend 3 weeks in the hospital

Those are all weak reasons.

Musk was correctly anticipating a major down turn in the economy for 2022. He was saying this at the end of 2021. Of course Tesla went down, everything else did as well. This is not a surprise. Fun fact he and Thiel also correctly anticipated the dotcom crash before it happened and pushed for the last round of PayPal funding to get done quickly at the peak as they expected it to be the last opportunity.

Twitters poor financials were known going in.

I think he would need to be pretty dumb to be surprised or offended by the result of the poll. Being CEO or not is meaningless when it is a private company and he owns the place. His word is law no matter the CEO.