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California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD

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Re: California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD

#11
post #2

How much could the recent Musk meltdown be related to FSD just not arriving? It seems like we have reached a point after many years of FSD being “next year” when it’s becoming clear that it’s further away than anyone thought. I’ve thought the difficulty was being vastly underestimated for a while. A reusable Lunar and Mars shuttle system is probably a lot easier than actual FSD.

FSD was never real. TSLA was the product the whole time. Just like solar roof and tesla semi and tesla bot… if it gets an idiot futurologist wet then it will lift the TSLA price. Schadenfreude, long over due comeuppance, etc, etc.

Re: California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD

#12
post #5
post #2

How much could the recent Musk meltdown be related to FSD just not arriving? It seems like we have reached a point after many years of FSD being “next year” when it’s becoming clear that it’s further away than anyone thought. I’ve thought the difficulty was being vastly underestimated for a while. A reusable Lunar and Mars shuttle system is probably a lot easier than actual FSD.

FWIW, as far as "will the car drive itself?", FSD is already here. Call a friend and get a ride. The beta lets people in relatively rapidly now, and there are hundreds of thousands of enabled cars on the roads. It's pretty amazing. Now, it's absolutely true that it's not at a 100% supervision-free level. It's still timid, it has trouble with lane selection in some areas and misses turns, etc... But for months and mon…

Other companies have cars one public streets without drivers. Calling what current Tesla’s do Full Sell Driving is so misleading it’s probably just fraud.

Re: California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD

#13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If only because you're probably doing two dozen moon missions a year TOPS - probably far less than that - but FSD needs to handle millions of trips flawlessly. But yeah, at some point he should have wised up and stopped saying that FSD was gonna be ready Any Day Now.

He went so far as to say that it was financially irresponsible to not buy a Tesla, as it was the only car that was fully hardware capable, and that had FSD software coming in about a year. We are very far from the touted fleets of Tesla robotaxis, independently-operated or otherwise.

He also went as far as saying the stock is too high. People just hear whatever they want to hear.

Re: California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD

#14
post #2

How much could the recent Musk meltdown be related to FSD just not arriving? It seems like we have reached a point after many years of FSD being “next year” when it’s becoming clear that it’s further away than anyone thought. I’ve thought the difficulty was being vastly underestimated for a while. A reusable Lunar and Mars shuttle system is probably a lot easier than actual FSD.

I think 6 or 7 years ago, many people thought we would at least have something like Waymo's self-driving taxis in Phoenix in several cities, more publicly available, really starting to change transportation.

We're not too far behind on that estimate. My guess is in less than 3 years - Waymo will be publicly available in large parts of Phoenix and probably another major metro - and within 10 years most of the south west.

But a lot of uninformed people thought we might have FSD everywhere by now. I think there's just less uninformed people now.

Re: California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD

#15
post #2

How much could the recent Musk meltdown be related to FSD just not arriving? It seems like we have reached a point after many years of FSD being “next year” when it’s becoming clear that it’s further away than anyone thought. I’ve thought the difficulty was being vastly underestimated for a while. A reusable Lunar and Mars shuttle system is probably a lot easier than actual FSD.

>it’s further away than anyone thought

I worked full time in a computer vision company (non-automotive) for several years prior to 2018. I joined an automotive company (not Tesla) in 2018 and very intentionally steered clear of the autonomous efforts going on there. Not because my skillset wasn’t best applied there, but because I didn’t believe the roadmaps the industry was laying out at the time. “Level 3 by next year, Level 4 by 2020, Level 5 by 2022” is what they were saying back then. I called bullshit (silently) and worked on viable software instead.

Lots of people were doing the same. This isn’t surprising to a whole bunch of people that work in the non-automotive computer vision/ML space and realize how absurd it is to think the these models will converge any time soon.

Re: California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD

#16
Mainstream full self driving would just create massive traffic and gridlock - pointless in the end. The induced demand would outweigh the benefits. States are better off acknowledging that sprawling car dependent cities are not sustainable. High frequency busses in the interim with rail transit is the real solution.

Current self driving technology plus some key infrastructure changes with dedicated bus lanes and prioritization is already good enough to have automated busses cart people around.

Just think about it - what happens when everyone has a self driving car? All of those cars that are otherwise parked are now on the road. Traffic. Same thing that happened pre-COVID with "ridesharing". (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00678-z)

> The role of transportation network companies (TNCs) in the urban transport system is under intense debate. In this study, we systematically assess three aspects of the net impacts of TNCs on urban mobility in the United States—road congestion, transit ridership and private vehicle ownership—and examine how these impacts have evolved over time. Based on a set of fixed-effect panel models estimated using metropolitan statistical area level data, we find that the entrance of TNCs led to increased road congestion in terms of both intensity (by 0.9%) and duration (by 4.5%), an 8.9% decline in transit ridership and an insignificant change in vehicle ownership. Despite the ideal of providing a sustainable mobility solution by promoting large-scale car sharing, our analysis suggests that TNCs have intensified urban transport challenges since their debut in the United States.

Or we can continue burning tens of billions on self driving personal vehicles.

Re: California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD

#18
post #2

How much could the recent Musk meltdown be related to FSD just not arriving? It seems like we have reached a point after many years of FSD being “next year” when it’s becoming clear that it’s further away than anyone thought. I’ve thought the difficulty was being vastly underestimated for a while. A reusable Lunar and Mars shuttle system is probably a lot easier than actual FSD.

> that it’s further away than anyone thought.

No no, only musk was stupid enough to imply level 5 autonomy within x years.

Everyone know how hard it is, realtime accurate position, machine perception of roads, & accurate prediction of cars/lorries/other are all very difficult problems. Then to hobble your team by saying "blah blah blah no lidars" because they are expensive and someone from the ML team convinced you that they could estimate depth reliably, was the clincher.

Level 4/5 self driving is more of a matter of scale. if you have a 99.5% safe rating, then a lot of people over a country the size of the states are going to have a bad day.

Re: California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD

#19
post #2

How much could the recent Musk meltdown be related to FSD just not arriving? It seems like we have reached a point after many years of FSD being “next year” when it’s becoming clear that it’s further away than anyone thought. I’ve thought the difficulty was being vastly underestimated for a while. A reusable Lunar and Mars shuttle system is probably a lot easier than actual FSD.

> that it’s further away than anyone thought. No no, only musk was stupid enough to imply level 5 autonomy within x years. Everyone know how hard it is, realtime accurate position, machine perception of roads, & accurate prediction of cars/lorries/other are all very difficult problems. Then to hobble your team by saying "blah blah blah no lidars" because they are expensive and someone from the ML team convinced you t…

Let’s not pretend Apple, Uber, Google and countless others weren’t spending billions trying to make this a reality. They didn’t burn that money because they were smart enough to know it wasn’t going to happen. Everyone thought it was imminent. Many still do.

Re: California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD

#20
post #12
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, as far as "will the car drive itself?", FSD is already here. Call a friend and get a ride. The beta lets people in relatively rapidly now, and there are hundreds of thousands of enabled cars on the roads. It's pretty amazing. Now, it's absolutely true that it's not at a 100% supervision-free level. It's still timid, it has trouble with lane selection in some areas and misses turns, etc... But for months and mon…

Other companies have cars one public streets without drivers. Calling what current Tesla’s do Full Sell Driving is so misleading it’s probably just fraud.

Is there any consumer car that is anywhere close? My understanding is that no other car has things like automatic lan change and route following. Let alone stopping at stop signs / red lights etc.
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