As soon as SBF was indicted, it confirmed that the Feds had 1 or more cooperating witnesses and many correctly theorized Caroline Ellison was one of them. The other is less well-known but this basically maps out the prosecution's case. Ellison will testify to SBF's knowledge of the scheme. The other will testify to SBF instructing him to build the backdoor. Case closed.
This is an open and shut case. SBF getting out on bail was a surprise and it shows the double standard to how the US uses its civil asset forfeiture power. Specifically, that doesn't seem to be used against SBF, his parents and his associates in a way that it has with far less wealthy people. I want people to realize that. For the record, I consider civil asset forfeiture to be unconstitutional and a travesty of justice but it is the law of the land.
I'm going to be really interested to see what kind of deal the Feds cut for two witnesses. Could it be as light as no jail time? I have doubts but it's not impossible. It'll probably be a much lighter sentence, probably less than 10 years, maybe less than 5.