I'll tell you why movie revenue is dropping... • Hacker News Board

Re: I'll tell you why movie revenue is dropping...

#111

Post by JoshTriplett » Thu, Dec 29, 2011, 7:51 PM UTC

killnine wrote: post #20

What does it take to have movies that are in theater streamed to your home? Would you not watch more movies at theater prices if you could watch it on your couch at 12:01am Friday morning? I think the problem is at the theater, the companies get $12/person, $12 PER person. How can we come up with a solution where they still get their dollars, but I don't have to leave my couch to go sit in a dirty, loud theater to wa…

I don't particularly care about the delay between theaters and DVDs/streaming; it doesn't matter to me if I see something on the day of theater release or wait for it later. I go to the theater for movies that benefit from a massive screen and sound, and I don't mind paying extra for that experience. If I don't care about that for a particular film, then I certainly wouldn't pay extra to see it at home the day it comes out; I'll just add it to the Netflix queue or wait for it to show up on TV so MythTV can record it.

Re: I'll tell you why movie revenue is dropping...

#112

Post by mathattack » Thu, Dec 29, 2011, 7:51 PM UTC

I will add anecdotal evidence.... Movies this year suck. We have Grandma the babysitter around and my wife and I only took advantage once. After seeing Sherlock Holmes none of the movies beat Netflix.

It isn't just the context, it's the content too.

Re: I'll tell you why movie revenue is dropping...

#113

Post by saucetenuto » Thu, Dec 29, 2011, 7:52 PM UTC

brador wrote: post #86

forcefsck wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The number one reason is your second point (without the CG). The problem is that it's total crap. There's lack of content, bullshit scenarios, nothing entertaining. It's not the overuse of CG, but that it's the only thing they're selling anymore.

Here's the thing, everyone I speaks to agrees that modern movies are mostly crap. But...why, with their big focus group budgets and such, are the movie studios not listening to this? Or is their output really the best they are being pitched?

Well, two things:

"Everyone you speak to" is probably a group of people very similar to you. That's how most peoples' social groups work, and it's hard to notice because your experience of them tends to factor out the similarities and focus on the differences.

The value of a potential moviegoer is almost a binary function of movie quality: the looks good enough to be worth the price of a ticket, or it doesn't. The marginal value of added quality past that point is slight, at least from a box office perspective. So to maximize revenue, you want your movie to exceed that threshold for as many people as possible. This is why the highest-grossing movies in any given year tend to be family-friendly comedies.

Re: I'll tell you why movie revenue is dropping...

#114

Post by aspensmonster » Thu, Dec 29, 2011, 7:57 PM UTC

msluyter wrote: post #34

I think Alamo Drafthouse in Austin is doing it right: 1. Food & beer/wine served with movie -- convenient and much preferable to overpriced popcorn. 2. Cellphones must be turned off. 3. They take talking seriously, and preface each film with a strongly (and amusingly) worded statement to that effect. 4. No babies allowed except on specified baby nights. 5. Creative and fun special events, such as quote-alongs, sing-a…

I'm a fellow Austinite and will vouch for the Drafthouse as well.

The prices --while still obviously above raw cost-- are fair in comparison to the traditional competition. Four dollars for bottomless coke; six dollars for popcorn. They have a gigantic selection of brews and wines. There are various entrees available at the same price of a typical restaurant.

The pre-show entertainment isn't just a thinly veiled sequence of advertising. It can be hit or miss --apparently they're _all_ edited by two fellas in an office somewhere-- but it's nothing like the "LOOK AT THIS AWESOME PRODUCT!" strategy. Regal FirstLook, I'm looking at you and don't particularly care if the tablet survived a thousand foot drop from the sky or not.

Finally, they are able to cater to various crowds and match the atmosphere and the expected behaviour. Traditional movie-going? STFU and watch. "Quote-alongs" for the hits of the recent past? Feel free to revel in your shared heritage of Big Lebowski references, (polite and relevant) chatter welcome. Movie Marathons? Be prepared for Harry Potter supersaturation for the next 24 hours as you go from Sorcerer's Stone to Deathly Hallows. Don't have cable television but still want to enjoy The Walking Dead? There's a screening for that.

Oh, and regarding their no talking and texting rules. Think they don't take it seriously? Think again :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1L3eeC2lJZs

Re: I'll tell you why movie revenue is dropping...

#115

Post by jcampbell1 » Thu, Dec 29, 2011, 7:58 PM UTC

blhack wrote: post #109

I've been saying it forever, but theaters need to adopt seating charts. I will pay you more money for a center/center seat, and people sitting in the front row, and the front-corners should not be paying much-of-anything for a ticket.

Interesting idea, but the results would be worse than horrendous. It would drive up costs running a theatre massively, and it smacks of classism. Can you imagine how pissed people would be that they had to sit in the shit seats while the rich people seats were empty? Or you let people move when the movie starts, and the people that paid for premium tickets feel ripped off.

Re: I'll tell you why movie revenue is dropping...

#116

Post by rhplus » Thu, Dec 29, 2011, 7:59 PM UTC

2. Ticket prices are too high. People have always made that complaint, but historically the movies have been cheap compared to concerts, major league sports and restaurants.

I had to check this claim, because inflation and purchasing power can fog people's memories. Using average U.S. ticket prices[1] adjusted to 2010 dollars[2], I get the following:

Year | Price | 2010 price adj. w/CPI

---------------------------------

2010 | 7.89 | 7.89

2005 | 6.41 | 7.15

2000 | 5.39 | 6.83

1995 | 4.35 | 6.22

1990 | 4.22 | 7.04

1985 | 3.55 | 7.19

1980 | 2.69 | 7.12

1975 | 2.03 | 8.23

1971 | 1.65 | 8.88

1967 | 1.22 | 7.96

1963 | 0.86 | 6.13

1958 | 0.68 | 5.13

1954 | 0.49 | 3.97

1948 | 0.36 | 3.26

Assuming my calculations are fair and correct, it appears that movie ticket prices quickly outpaced inflation until the late 60s, saw a peak in the 70s and then began a steady decline until the mid 90s. Since then they've been on a march upwards again.

So prices aren't historically high - that honor goes to the 1970s. And compared to sports events and concerts...?! I don't have the data, but I'd bet tickets for those have risen even faster, both of which, incidentally, suffer from the same competition movies do: high quality home theater setups and internet streaming. Which of course is the real problem - ticket prices need to drop against inflation, because entertain distribution options are not the same in 2011 as they were in 1971. The movie theater or concert venue does not have a monopoly on high definition entertainment any more.

Sources:

[1] http://www.natoonline.org/statisticstickets.htm

[2] http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl

Re: I'll tell you why movie revenue is dropping...

#117

Post by weeksie » Thu, Dec 29, 2011, 8:00 PM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #14

ChrisLTD wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One quibble, in 2002 people weren't texting like mad on their bright white 4+ inch smartphone displays.

No, they were texting like mad on their little Nokia dumbphone displays. Also, LASER POINTERS.

Not in the US they weren't, at least not _nearly_ as much as they are now.

But I don't think texting is nearly as much as a problem as the outsized ticket price increases for 3d films

Re: I'll tell you why movie revenue is dropping...

#118

Post by ericd » Thu, Dec 29, 2011, 8:08 PM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #3

I guess... and of course I defer to Ebert on all things cinematic... but these are all critiques you could have leveled with equal force in 2002. There've been good years in the preceding decade. Except for 3D. But how much of an effect is 3D having? Most movies aren't 3D. I'll say this: I went to see Super 8 at an old 60's-70's style theater in the far-out suburbs, one almost identical to the ones I saw movies in wh…

Yeah, I generally enjoy going to the movies, but in the past couple of years, a setup that puts most theater experiences to shame has become pretty affordable. A fairly good high def DLP projector is in the ballpark of $1k. Add a $100 Roku or Apple TV and a $300 set of 550W Logitech speakers (including amp), and you've got a great general purpose theater for less than $2k, and without the hassles.

(If you don't have a good wall to project on, you can make a screen out of two metal poles, blackout cloth, and staples, or spend a wildly variable amount on a manufactured screen - from 100 to 1000 and up)

Re: I'll tell you why movie revenue is dropping...

#119

Post by ianstormtaylor » Thu, Dec 29, 2011, 8:13 PM UTC

Pretty sure #5 should be a bit higher on that list. As soon as we see more movies make iTunes debuts at the same time as theatre debuts it'll surely get worse and worse.

Re: I'll tell you why movie revenue is dropping...

#120

Post by mkramlich » Thu, Dec 29, 2011, 8:15 PM UTC

I thought of dozens of ways to improve on the current big movie theatre model but ultimately decided it was much simpler and easier to just have a good home theatre system for private use. Also I figured it was so obvious how to improve and innovate in that area that if it hadn't already been done by now there were probably nasty little complexities or political/bureaucratic swamps involved. Because there were no significant purely physical or technical challenges.