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How a new manufacturing technology will change the world

economist.com

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Re: How a new manufacturing technology will change the world

#11

Post by URSpider94 »

pragmatic wrote: post #3

Paper printers today are far from flawless. They consume a good portion of IT time (in companies and for those of us who are the family tech support). I'm a tad skeptical of a universal printer. The reliability to print anything of a complex nature (beyond simple plastic molds) is a major concern. Doing this at scale (putting this in each persons home) is a nice idea, I just don't think it's reliable enough. I hope I…

Beyond that, there's the problem of creating items to be printed, or even of modifying existing items. For the most part, the proliferation of laser printers and inkjet printers into homes has led to the creation of a lot of disastrous-looking fliers with horrible fonts and banded,posterized, poorly color-controlled photographs that quickly fade to blue.

Think for a minute about the photo-finishing industry. In theory, almost every home with a computer and digital camera also has an inkjet printer capable of producing photos. In practice, by the time you get the printer set up and properly calibrated, buy the right paper from the store, and finish color-correcting your images, it STILL COSTS MORE to print a snapshot at home than it does to get it made by the local Target or Wal-Mart. The exception is for pro or semi-pro artists who are printing canvas wraps or large-scale enlargements, in which case the investment on a large-format inkjet becomes pretty substantial.

The problem with the "maker proliferation" theory of society is that not everyone wants to be a maker -- in fact, I'd argue that not even 10% of people want to be makers. This is what the One Laptop Per Child project ultimately found out -- even most curious children don't really want to hack their computers, or build their own word processor.

If we end up with 3D printers in every home, I can guarantee that for the most part, we'll end up with a lot of crappy, expensive Christmas ornaments and paperweights.

Re: How a new manufacturing technology will change the world

#12

Post by te_platt »

krschultz wrote: post #5

I've seen this column written about a thousand times. I just don't think any of the authors have really worked with a 3D printer hands on. I'm a mechanical engineer designing products on a daily basis. We have a (really good) 3D printer and pump out amazing models all the time. Our's uses a fairly strong plastic and allows for things like moving linkages and very fine detail. The models are an amazing aid to communic…

I agree that as of today 3D printers can't replace almost any commercial manufacturing technique. I think the article was meant for excitement about what may be coming soon. Most of the comments here sound a lot like what photographers said about digital cameras in the early 90's - low quality, poor resolution, expensive. Do you see 3d printing being able to improve in the near future to the point of being useful to you in final production? Or do you think that even with major improvements they just won't be able to keep up with more conventional means?

Re: How a new manufacturing technology will change the world

#13

Post by tocomment »

justinmares wrote: post #6
krschultz wrote: post #5

I've seen this column written about a thousand times. I just don't think any of the authors have really worked with a 3D printer hands on. I'm a mechanical engineer designing products on a daily basis. We have a (really good) 3D printer and pump out amazing models all the time. Our's uses a fairly strong plastic and allows for things like moving linkages and very fine detail. The models are an amazing aid to communic…

Completely agree. I was involved with a startup in the 3D printing space, and the gap between what 3D printing is capable of and what people think it will be able to do is just enormous. I think the more interesting stuff is voxel printing and some of the advanced machining technology that's being developed.

What is voxel printing?

Re: How a new manufacturing technology will change the world

#14

Post by shimon_e »

If the theory behind this article was true then tube socks would be made in your local store as opposed to some factory in China. If the socks business can't leave the factory, why do people think 3D printed good will leave?

All this progress will lead to is Chinese factories having smaller workforces. I visited a sock factory with a work force of a few thousand people producing few million socks per day. When you get to such scales your biggest cost is management oversight, which is why manufacturing is going to stay in large factories.

Re: How a new manufacturing technology will change the world

#15

Post by gfodor »

URSpider94 wrote: post #11
pragmatic wrote: post #3

Paper printers today are far from flawless. They consume a good portion of IT time (in companies and for those of us who are the family tech support). I'm a tad skeptical of a universal printer. The reliability to print anything of a complex nature (beyond simple plastic molds) is a major concern. Doing this at scale (putting this in each persons home) is a nice idea, I just don't think it's reliable enough. I hope I…

Beyond that, there's the problem of creating items to be printed, or even of modifying existing items. For the most part, the proliferation of laser printers and inkjet printers into homes has led to the creation of a lot of disastrous-looking fliers with horrible fonts and banded,posterized, poorly color-controlled photographs that quickly fade to blue. Think for a minute about the photo-finishing industry. In theor…

Think farther. Photos aren't a good example, since it's only one type of thing you're creating, and you don't create them that often. This is more meta: it's a device to create a wide variety of things, that you will likely be creating often. One can imagine a world where the entire setup is simply a service, like internet access, where the owner can partake in any balance of consumption or creation they desire.

Re: How a new manufacturing technology will change the world

#16

Post by shimon_e »

shimon_e wrote: post #14

If the theory behind this article was true then tube socks would be made in your local store as opposed to some factory in China. If the socks business can't leave the factory, why do people think 3D printed good will leave? All this progress will lead to is Chinese factories having smaller workforces. I visited a sock factory with a work force of a few thousand people producing few million socks per day. When you ge…

No real need for me to bring in China and socks. The same would be true photos, business cards, and books.

Re: How a new manufacturing technology will change the world

#17

Post by MaxGabriel »

krschultz wrote: post #5

I've seen this column written about a thousand times. I just don't think any of the authors have really worked with a 3D printer hands on. I'm a mechanical engineer designing products on a daily basis. We have a (really good) 3D printer and pump out amazing models all the time. Our's uses a fairly strong plastic and allows for things like moving linkages and very fine detail. The models are an amazing aid to communic…

I think the editor is sympathetic to your position. The subtitle "Print me a stratovarius!" is pretty tongue-in-cheek towards high quality 3D printer manufacturing.

Re: How a new manufacturing technology will change the world

#18

Post by iandanforth »

krschultz wrote: post #5

I've seen this column written about a thousand times. I just don't think any of the authors have really worked with a 3D printer hands on. I'm a mechanical engineer designing products on a daily basis. We have a (really good) 3D printer and pump out amazing models all the time. Our's uses a fairly strong plastic and allows for things like moving linkages and very fine detail. The models are an amazing aid to communic…

I must respectfully disagree.

I take your central argument to be: "3D printers won't ultimately change our manufacturing process."

I take your main points to be: 1. The materials are weak and thus unsuitable for most products and 2. The efficiencies of scale of traditional manufacturing trump 3D printers in runs above 1k units.

Today your first point is true, however I use 3D printed parts as structural components in my robots and they are sound. I suspect in general material strength will increase until it meets the demands of how people want to use it. I hope you wouldn't make the argument that it can't increase in strength. There will always be material properties that can't be replicated in a fabber, but I do not know how many products in my life need these advanced properties.

Your second point ignores the decentralized nature of 3D printing. In total, yes, it will always be less efficient. But imagine a world where an Apple product launch means access to a new fabber file. Everyone in the world with a fabber could download and print the new product ... at the same time. No centralized manufacturing and distribution network could match that.

Some additional hurdles you don't mention: Material cost. $6 a cubic inch (my costs today) are really quite high. Material diversity. I need multiple materials for many objects I'd like to print. Speed. It takes hours to print something of moderate size. If I can pop over to a store and get the same item manufactured in the traditional way, I probably will.

Finally, if by any chance, someone reading this comment hasn't read "The Diamond Age" by Stephenson, please do yourself a favor and pick up a copy.

Re: How a new manufacturing technology will change the world

#19

Post by krschultz »

te_platt wrote: post #12
krschultz wrote: post #5

I've seen this column written about a thousand times. I just don't think any of the authors have really worked with a 3D printer hands on. I'm a mechanical engineer designing products on a daily basis. We have a (really good) 3D printer and pump out amazing models all the time. Our's uses a fairly strong plastic and allows for things like moving linkages and very fine detail. The models are an amazing aid to communic…

I agree that as of today 3D printers can't replace almost any commercial manufacturing technique. I think the article was meant for excitement about what may be coming soon. Most of the comments here sound a lot like what photographers said about digital cameras in the early 90's - low quality, poor resolution, expensive. Do you see 3d printing being able to improve in the near future to the point of being useful to…

For what I do today, nothing on the horizon as of today could replace the bulk of our work. I work on industrial stuff where almost everything is metal. We do almost exclusively low volume work so the rapid prototyping is key to our design process, but very little of what we do can be done in plastics of any kind. And I think that extends to a lot of industries.

Certainly if you are designing a new phone and you want to 'feel' a bunch of cases, 3D printing is a dream come true.

But think of all the things it doesn't touch at all. -All chemical processes, from oil refineries to pharmaceuticals -Web processes like making paper and fabric (and even solar panels these days) -Everything related to ICs and circuit boards -Anything made of metal which extends from giant cranes and ships all the way down to bent sheet metal computer cases -Anything that is high volume -Biomedical devices and medical supplies

I think it gets a lot of press because the largest impact will be on the most visible type of product - the mass produced consumer plastic product. Today these all have to be identical copies because the fixed costs are so high (molds) and the per unit costs are so low (plastic). In the future maybe we will see more variety there, but I think fundamentally people don't like choice in products in practice as much as they do in principle (thats just my opinion, but look at what has happened with the consolidation of Linux distros over time). But I think the majority of manufacturing is not doing that stuff.

Re: How a new manufacturing technology will change the world

#20

Post by mhb »

iandanforth wrote: post #18
krschultz wrote: post #5

I've seen this column written about a thousand times. I just don't think any of the authors have really worked with a 3D printer hands on. I'm a mechanical engineer designing products on a daily basis. We have a (really good) 3D printer and pump out amazing models all the time. Our's uses a fairly strong plastic and allows for things like moving linkages and very fine detail. The models are an amazing aid to communic…

I must respectfully disagree. I take your central argument to be: "3D printers won't ultimately change our manufacturing process." I take your main points to be: 1. The materials are weak and thus unsuitable for most products and 2. The efficiencies of scale of traditional manufacturing trump 3D printers in runs above 1k units. Today your first point is true, however I use 3D printed parts as structural components in…

The Diamond Age is about molecular nanotechnology and, while that will change the world, this ain't that.
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