How anyone could look at this man's behavior over the last few weeks and not think he was on a fast track to a federal penitentiary is beyond me. A word to the unwise: If you have done something, anything, that you have a credible reason to believe the United States government thinks is illegal, shut up . Do not do any of the following: * Go on a podcast and talk about it * Go on a Twitter livestream and talk about i…
> How anyone could look at this man's behavior over the last few weeks and not think he was on a fast track to a federal penitentiary is beyond me Seeing how thoroughly he convinced people that he had political influence, and given his general lack of awareness, I’m willing to give merit to his believing he was immune. Similar to how people outside securities think insider trading is more rampant than it is, insider…
Any time SBF ran into trouble, he could just raise another round of financing, or borrow against artificial valuations, or "smooth things over" with the right people.
Once that happens enough, I imagine a lot of people would start to feel some cosmic entitlement to it, like that's just how it is, the FTT tokens must be worth $24 each, it's only a matter of "getting liquidity"[1], you can always raise more money, you can always call in a favor, you can always borrow against what you think the assets are worth, there's no reason to hold customer assets in their original form.
Heck, even to the very last days, when his attorneys and CFO were telling him he had to declare bankruptcy, he adamantly insisted that new funding was just about to come through -- and even that he got the offer moments after declaring -- but, of course, he can't say who, or under what terms, even why they would invest. [2]
Personally, I always try to maintain a frame of "these good times don't have to last, they can go away at any moment, so make sure you're ready for if/when that happens". But maybe I'd falter too, in the same position.
[1] A frame even informed observers buy into! Earlier comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33539326
[2] ctrl-f for "Mr. Bankman-Fried was also frustrated.": https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/29/technology/sam-bankman-fr...