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“A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

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111–120 of 128 posts

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#111
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the goods and people transported won't mind that a few shareholders were unhappy.

They might be unhappy when the profitable business are all ran out of town and the unprofitable ones collapse leaving neither behind.

Do you think this will happen to the airline industry? Happily willing to take the other side of that bet.

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#113
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Guess all that drinking water we have is just a waste then. Highways too. Airlines are unique in that they're essentially a public good that we've allowed to be a private market (look at how often the government intervenes in the industry). That doesn't mean that airplanes are pointless.

Absolutely. The entire building-airplanes-and-flying-them "industry" is a side effect of their necessity as weapons of war and toys for rich people (same thing, really). There is no rational reason for it to exist, especially knowing what we know now, but we're not a rational species.

Why don’t you take a 30-45 day ocean journey to Asias over a 15hr flight then?

Airlines are not just a toy for the rich, in fact majority of the passenger traffic is shuffled around in economy.

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#114
post #26
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there was a fairly long gap between the death of PDAs and the birth of smartphones. Only if you define the birth of smartphones as starting with Android/iPhone. Palm released their own smartphones using the same OS as their PDAs (the Treo line) prior to that, and Microsoft had Windows Mobile plus a bundle of third-party manufacturers. Plus Blackberry had been around the whole time, too. Looking it up, it seems that…

This. For me it started with the XDA (II). The telecom provider O2 had an HTC produced handset called the XDA, essentially a Pocket PC (predecessor of Windows Mobile) PDA with built-in GPRS modem (which I remember fetching up to 64 kbps, as opposed to using dial-up via GSM, which would get you 9600 bps if you paired up a Palm or psion 3/5 via irda to a nokia 6210). The XDA II followed a year later. By that time, ther…

Same here with XDA II. Something really ironic now that I think of it is that they shipped with ARM chips made by Intel.

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#115
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the goods and people transported won't mind that a few shareholders were unhappy.

They might be unhappy when the profitable business are all ran out of town and the unprofitable ones collapse leaving neither behind.

Why do things that serve the public need to be profitable? Are roads profitable? Is sewage treatment profitable? Do you maintain that they should be?

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#116
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Guess all that drinking water we have is just a waste then. Highways too. Airlines are unique in that they're essentially a public good that we've allowed to be a private market (look at how often the government intervenes in the industry). That doesn't mean that airplanes are pointless.

Absolutely. The entire building-airplanes-and-flying-them "industry" is a side effect of their necessity as weapons of war and toys for rich people (same thing, really). There is no rational reason for it to exist, especially knowing what we know now, but we're not a rational species.

Buddy replace “building airplanes and flying them” with “growing food and eating it” and you’re describing agriculture until the 20th century.

We’re humans. We fuck shit up. Our goal is to do it only when necessary.

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#117
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Research proposals are not supposed to necessarily solve current real-life problems so there is nothing inherently wrong with that. But given the amount of startups coming out of universities, the mindset is crazily wrong. So many people coming with a technology. If it's software you can at least pivot easily but if you got some kind of hardware technology, it becomes much less simple to do that. > Low interest + eas…

> > It's a problem creation machine. > Not sure if I understand you correctly It is hopefully not an obtuse point but allow me to explain it with a story; Teenage girl has a beauty spot. Her parents tell her it's a princess spot. Boys think its cute. She's happy. Some mean bitches tell her it's ugly and probably skin cancer. Now it's a problem. Nothing in reality had changed of course. And that's how solutions lookin…

Ah ok, I see. I did not understand you correctly and I fully agree with you. Thanks for clarifying.

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#118
post #24

I really dislike these takes on low interest rates. As far back as the 70s (when interest rates were 8-15%), there have been random business ideas being started and shutdown (pet rocks, every airline ever, etc.). We don't remember those because they shutdown 40 years ago. Today, we only see the successful ones that survived (walmart, fedex, etc.). There's a legit question: why have long term interests declined over t…

Also people don't seem to understand that an optimal growth path had high interest rates in the beginning and low interest rates in the end.

If you have a constant interest rate aka exponential growth that actually means you are growing too slowly in the beginning and too quickly in the end.

Even if you subscribe to the classical time preference theory it doesn't make sense for the market to signal that you need to save more today and then signal once the future arrives that you need to save more. If the interest rate were stuck at a positive 3% this would imply that people will perpetually ignore the present and therefore some of the savings will never be spent ever. I.e. aggregate demand will be below aggregate supply.

So no, zero percent interest is not some abberation, it is simply the result of low inflation rates and high rates of capital formation and the lowering of capital intensity due to software companies.

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#119
post #24

I really dislike these takes on low interest rates. As far back as the 70s (when interest rates were 8-15%), there have been random business ideas being started and shutdown (pet rocks, every airline ever, etc.). We don't remember those because they shutdown 40 years ago. Today, we only see the successful ones that survived (walmart, fedex, etc.). There's a legit question: why have long term interests declined over t…

I thought the reason interest rates have been so low for the last ~30 years is because governments in the 90s (certainly the US and UK ones) took the decision to make it their monetary policy to keep them low.

You mean they decided to keep inflation low which obviously also means lower interest rates in the long run.

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought the reason interest rates have been so low for the last ~30 years is because governments in the 90s (certainly the US and UK ones) took the decision to make it their monetary policy to keep them low.

You mean they decided to keep inflation low which obviously also means lower interest rates in the long run.

Yes, this was indeed what I meant.
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