This guy is something else. He's one of the largest scammers in history, if not the largest, by the amount of appropriated funds. But he's also very "cute", I mean he cannot open his mouth without incriminating himself. This is going to be a good show. On a more serious note I do hope for some serious sentences on the back of it (counted in decades, maybe a few life sentences if possible), because it's too much of a…
SBF scheduled to testify tomorrow at US House hearing on FTX collapse
101–110 of 204 posts
Re: SBF scheduled to testify tomorrow at US House hearing on FTX collapse
#102Earlier quoted context omitted.
> These controls were skipped because SBF was convinced he was doing something extremely novel and complicated and such old-school concepts would only hinder his ability to execute on his brilliant ideas. Don't let him sell the story that it was all very complex and he made a bunch of mistakes and he should have done better. They used Snapchat for company messaging so there wound't be records. This wasn't a mistake d…
I agree. It wasn't very complex, he made a bunch of basic mistakes that nobody with even a passing familiarity with finance should have made, and to say that he should have done better is an understatement of almost comical proportions. I just also think that these things were (at least initially) due to absurd levels of hubris and incompetence rather than outright malicious intent. The guy thought his shit didn't st…
Is there really that much of a difference between these two in this financial context?
Re: SBF scheduled to testify tomorrow at US House hearing on FTX collapse
#103Earlier quoted context omitted.
You could be right. But if this interview spree is a calculated move to avoid jail time, he's doing a truly awful job of it. But this wouldn't be the first time he did an awful job of something due to misjudging his own competence.
> But if this interview spree is a calculated move to avoid jail time, he's doing a truly awful job of it. But this wouldn't be the first time he did an awful job of something due to misjudging his own competence. Yep, I think that's exactly it. In his mind, it's either - do not do any interviews. The outcome is a 90% probability of life in prision - do the interviews and try to shift public opinion to it being an ac…
Re: SBF scheduled to testify tomorrow at US House hearing on FTX collapse
#104Earlier quoted context omitted.
Kind of like how git made tools for decentralized development widespread, so nobody uses centralized intermediaries to host their repositories any more. /s
I mean, at least git is easily "re-decentralizable" if you have to: Just add another remote to your working copy and push your state. I also believe there are lots of companies who run their own internal git services to not be dependent on GitHub. I agree though, in theory, git would allow some fully p2p working mode, where each developer just adds the machines of the other developers as remotes and there is no "auth…
The same is true of Subversion or CVS or Perforce, which are all very centralized source control systems. Relying on Github.com itself is another level of centralization over and above the near-universal industry pattern of having a centralized repo.
> I agree though, in theory, git would allow some fully p2p working mode, where each developer just adds the machines of the other developers as remotes and there is no "authoritative" remote at all. If that was ever seriously proposed as a real working mode, it definitely didn't catch on, due to it quickly becoming extremely confusing.
That is more or less how Linux kernel development works, with Linus' own repo just being more respected than others, but with many entities maintaining their own central repos (e.g. many distros and larger organizations only manually take patches or merges from Linus' repo, they don't otherwise rely on it in their automation). Changes are often collaboratively worked on for months or even years outside in sine of these repos before being sent to one of the official maintainers for inclusion in Linus' repo.
Now, this practice makes no sense at all for a centralized entity like a company, which is why virtually all companies used centralized repos where all code and collaboration happens by mandate - whether using Hg, Git, or SVN.
Re: SBF scheduled to testify tomorrow at US House hearing on FTX collapse
#105Re: SBF scheduled to testify tomorrow at US House hearing on FTX collapse
#106Having followed a lot of the SBF discussion since he keeps giving interviews, here's the FAQ-- 1) How did you lose $5ish billion of customer deposits? - They were deposited to Alameda, a totally independent hedge fund run by an unrelated party (my ex-girlfriend who lives with me). We credited Alameda without properly debiting Alameda on FTX. 2) Why didn't you track them? - There was a bug in the dashboard. I made a b…
Having also followed this unfolding drama, I can say this is sadly a reasonably accurate take. I'll add my own opinion which is that he seems to—at least on some level—legitimately believe that all of this is extremely complicated and impossible to understand unless you're someone of his intellectual caliber. It's so complicated, in fact, that even he struggles to keep it all in his head at once. I say this because I…
Yes and I think that was an image he actively sought to cultivate. This is the whole "cult of the genius" trope that the VC's want us to believe in. This is where you hear people regurgitating things like "he's playing 3D chess", whatever that is means.
Perhaps a telling bit of this chicanery is this incident:
>"In this context, the most telling detail in the FTX saga doesn’t have to do with dubious tokens or suspicious accounting. Rather, it involves League of Legends, the massive multiplayer online game that is a favorite of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried. In September, the tech venture-capital firm Sequoia Capital published a profile of “SBF” on its website, explaining how the crypto prodigy convinced the firm to invest some $200 million during a Zoom meeting—while playing League of Legends the whole time."[1]
Further from this same source:
>"What’s significant isn’t just that the now 30-year-old entrepreneur didn’t think it necessary to give the deal his full attention. It’s that Sequoia published this detail in an article meant to advertise its FTX investment. (The article was taken down after the firm began to collapse in early November.) Far from seeing Mr. Bankman-Fried’s gaming as a worrisome example of distraction and disrespect, Sequoia was impressed by it and expected readers to have the same reaction."[1]
Re: SBF scheduled to testify tomorrow at US House hearing on FTX collapse
#107Re: SBF scheduled to testify tomorrow at US House hearing on FTX collapse
#108Earlier quoted context omitted.
> But if this interview spree is a calculated move to avoid jail time, he's doing a truly awful job of it. But this wouldn't be the first time he did an awful job of something due to misjudging his own competence. Yep, I think that's exactly it. In his mind, it's either - do not do any interviews. The outcome is a 90% probability of life in prision - do the interviews and try to shift public opinion to it being an ac…
If all this was done maliciously from the get-go, I don't understand why he would take this approach as opposed to simply cashing out when things started to turn and disappearing. If you've got enough money, it's not hard to make yourself scarce. So why stay visible and continue to do these interviews and testify before the US House when all he's managed to do so far is convince everyone that he's guilty as hell? Tha…
Because he wasn't expected their balance sheet to get leaked.
He had enough liquidity from FTX customer deposits to cover any Alameda margin calls from losses and Alameda wouldn't get margin called from FTX for any losses (due to their god mode).
So, he could keep just keep holding levered losses and wait for the tide to turn.
However, the FTX balance sheet got leaked and that caused CZ to want to liquidate his FTT stake.
This caused a huge wave of customers wanted to withdraw their money from FTX just in case (a very smart decision in retrospect) and he didn't expect that many customer withdrawals to come at once.
Or, maybe he thought he'd be fine if 10-20% of customers withdrew (in a worst case scenario) because he could sell the FTT "collateral".
But, the price of FTT also collapsed simultaneously and that caused the ponzi to fall apart.
Edit:
Or sorry, do you mean he should've cashed out and disappeared last month (after it was revealed that FTX lost all the customer deposits)?
Yeah, I don't think that's possible.
He would've been on the FBI most-wanted list and multiple intelligence agencies would be looking for him.
Having a billion dollars is pretty pointless if you're a top 10 most wanted criminal. Unless you have a country that's explicitly willing to shelter you, then you can't really spend the money otherwise you'll give yourself away.
Also, I don't think he's a complete psychopath. Him just disappearing would force his parents/siblings to also have to become fugitives and I don't think he wanted that. (if he disappeared, he would not be able to talk to his family again as aiding a fugitive from justice is illegal. Also, it would be completely impossible for his parents to live normal-ish lives if their son was on the FBI top 10 most wanted list. It's slightly more possible if their son is in prison.)
Re: SBF scheduled to testify tomorrow at US House hearing on FTX collapse
#109They are not. The one thing you should do when facing a likely criminal indictment is to shut the F up. Every statement you make can be used against you and remove your legal options. You may be admitting to things that the prosecution would otherwise have to prove. Yes, interviews aren't given under oath but then you have to argue what you said was a deliberate lie or you were mistaken. The prosecutor will have a field day with this: "what else did you lie about?", "were you lying then or lying now?", "how are we to believe anything you say when you've admitted that you lie?", etc.
His parents are lawyers. They should know this. He should have legal counsel. They will definitely know this. So he either doesn't have legal counsel or is ignoring their advice.
He will absolutely spend the rest of his life in prison or on the run.
Re: SBF scheduled to testify tomorrow at US House hearing on FTX collapse
#110Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is complex, but that doesn't mean it's not malicious. Let's use a simpler example. Sam runs a horse racing operation and allows you to place bets on horses. Before the race begins, Sam collects $1,000,000 from various people placing bets on the race. During the race, Sam runs across the street to the casino and puts the $1,000,000 he's holding on black at the roulette table. If he wins the bet, Sam plans to take t…
Sure. This is a reasonable analogy. I simply think that he started from an a priori belief that a) he is brilliant, and therefore b) ideas he comes up with are similarly brilliant, thus c) this idea is brilliant. It wasn't. That said, I don't think it should matter whether or not he came into this plan with an intent to defraud or if he mistakenly thought this was a foolproof investment strategy. The man is guilty as…
Near as I can tell, it’s the rationalizing part of the mind trying to protect them by trying to convince themselves and everyone else they are actually not bad.
It’s why it is so important to ignore what people say, and look at what they are doing and the results of their actions over time.