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“A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

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Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#21

Post by jen20 »

_jal wrote: post #16
electroly wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had several Palm devices. As I recall there was a fairly long gap between the death of PDAs and the birth of smartphones. I certainly did not replace my Palm with a smartphone; I replaced it with nothing, and then years later I got a smartphone. Most of the things that are amazing about smartphones were not present on my Palm IIIe, FWIW.

My memory is that the sort of person who was really in to Palm's gear migrated to Blackberries.

I had all kinds of Palm devices, but the only Blackberry I ever had was supplied by a company (around 2006) - I don't recall them being consumer devices in the UK until after the iPhone.

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#22

Post by ak_111 »

I am wondering how much of the excessive (even to the point of lunacy) funding of stupid ideas in tech is due to a low-rate macro environment as opposed to a spray-and-pray gold rush that naturally gets triggered whenever someone hits gold in an area.

After all it is hard to argue that AdSense, iPhones and AWS are not hugely profitable paradigm-shift innovations that would thrive in even the harshest macro environments, and the excessive mad funding are just ill-informed speculators trying their best to win the power law game as often happen in gold rushes.

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#23

Post by jchw »

malfist wrote: post #2

I thought this article had a good rule on how to differentiate dead end "solution in search of a problem" inventions and ones that might be successful. > whether the technology does something that would be useful if everyone had it, but is relatively useless at small scale I've often told my partner a lot of his "smart home" devices are solutions in search of problems. It seems to ride this line. Probably why despite…

I love smart home stuff, but greatly prefer open source compatible (Home Assistant etc), non-internet-connected smart home equipment that still has hardware switches. There's no good standard for RGBW addressability over wires here in the U.S. (that I'm aware of) so I do use some Philips Hue bulbs, but only accompanied by a hard-wired switch capable of associating directly with the bulb, so that all it needs to work is power.

I will admit though that I still mostly just do it because it's fun. But hey, it's fun that comes in handy, too.

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#24

Post by obblekk »

I really dislike these takes on low interest rates.

As far back as the 70s (when interest rates were 8-15%), there have been random business ideas being started and shutdown (pet rocks, every airline ever, etc.).

We don't remember those because they shutdown 40 years ago. Today, we only see the successful ones that survived (walmart, fedex, etc.).

There's a legit question: why have long term interests declined over the past 500 years, accelerating in the past 50-100 years.

The answer to that more likely has to do with some very broad phenomenon: capital has been accumulating due to increases in energy availability. Human talent (that turns capital into something actual) is plateauing due to slowing of population growth.

Testable Prediction: we will have <1% fed interest rates again at some point before 2030, because the long term trend remains downward for now.

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#25

Post by kevstev »

electroly wrote: post #8
black_puppydog wrote: post #5

> [...] products that ultimately turned out to be dead ends, like the Palm Pilot [...] Huh? I never had a Pilot, but from everything I've read about it (and how people who did have one describe it) it was quite amazing, and arguably the predecessor of the smartphone, no? I get that the product line is dead, but the concept was very much viable...

I had several Palm devices. As I recall there was a fairly long gap between the death of PDAs and the birth of smartphones. I certainly did not replace my Palm with a smartphone; I replaced it with nothing, and then years later I got a smartphone. Most of the things that are amazing about smartphones were not present on my Palm IIIe, FWIW.

I disagree here- The Palm Treo was arguably the first smart phone, limited as it may have been. I had a 650 from around 2005 or so, and I actually kept that thing going until 2009 when I got an IPhone 3GS. The Treos and "regular" PDAs all ran the same PalmOS software. The Palm 600 was the first real smartphone and was released in 2003.

I didn't pay for data, so used the PDA features much like you would a regular PDA- I had a dock and did a sync to my computer via their software. But I could and did put ebooks, mp3s on the device, synced my calendar, etc... it did the job, just much more poorly.

You also had "Pocket PCs" made mostly by HP that were kicking around during this period as well. Ipaq's were only discontinued around 2011, the last model apparently being released in 2009: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPAQ

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#26

Post by bux93 »

ipsi wrote: post #14
electroly wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had several Palm devices. As I recall there was a fairly long gap between the death of PDAs and the birth of smartphones. I certainly did not replace my Palm with a smartphone; I replaced it with nothing, and then years later I got a smartphone. Most of the things that are amazing about smartphones were not present on my Palm IIIe, FWIW.

> there was a fairly long gap between the death of PDAs and the birth of smartphones. Only if you define the birth of smartphones as starting with Android/iPhone. Palm released their own smartphones using the same OS as their PDAs (the Treo line) prior to that, and Microsoft had Windows Mobile plus a bundle of third-party manufacturers. Plus Blackberry had been around the whole time, too. Looking it up, it seems that…

This. For me it started with the XDA (II). The telecom provider O2 had an HTC produced handset called the XDA, essentially a Pocket PC (predecessor of Windows Mobile) PDA with built-in GPRS modem (which I remember fetching up to 64 kbps, as opposed to using dial-up via GSM, which would get you 9600 bps if you paired up a Palm or psion 3/5 via irda to a nokia 6210). The XDA II followed a year later. By that time, there were also multiple Treo models with built-in mobile modems.

It was great. There was no app store, but there were dozens if not hundreds of apps voor PPC on Tucows and other such download sites. But, people would laugh at you 'why would you want to browse websites or check your e-mail when you're not at a computer?'

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O2_Xda

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#27

Post by kspacewalk2 »

obblekk wrote: post #24

I really dislike these takes on low interest rates. As far back as the 70s (when interest rates were 8-15%), there have been random business ideas being started and shutdown (pet rocks, every airline ever, etc.). We don't remember those because they shutdown 40 years ago. Today, we only see the successful ones that survived (walmart, fedex, etc.). There's a legit question: why have long term interests declined over t…

Have those random business ideas grown to anything like billion-dollar companies (adjusted for inflation) before everyone realized that oops, actually these things won't turn a profit? It's a fair argument to make that low interest rates (with can be thought of as a proxy for 'too much money chasing too few opportunities') take random ideas and inject them with far too much money.

(Airline industry is a special case, eventual "failure" is part of the business plan, so leave those aside.)

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#28

Post by obblekk »

kspacewalk2 wrote: post #27
obblekk wrote: post #24

I really dislike these takes on low interest rates. As far back as the 70s (when interest rates were 8-15%), there have been random business ideas being started and shutdown (pet rocks, every airline ever, etc.). We don't remember those because they shutdown 40 years ago. Today, we only see the successful ones that survived (walmart, fedex, etc.). There's a legit question: why have long term interests declined over t…

Have those random business ideas grown to anything like billion-dollar companies (adjusted for inflation) before everyone realized that oops, actually these things won't turn a profit? It's a fair argument to make that low interest rates (with can be thought of as a proxy for 'too much money chasing too few opportunities') take random ideas and inject them with far too much money. (Airline industry is a special case,…

I'm not sure why airlines should be excluded. They were the "growth at all costs, we'll make it up on volume" business of the 70s and 80s. More capital invested than ever returned over 40 years.

Other businesses like this: franchise restaurants (many, many failed), motels, car rentals (you can see the gold rush in supporting the new tourist economy back then).

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#29

Post by bandrami »

black_puppydog wrote: post #5

> [...] products that ultimately turned out to be dead ends, like the Palm Pilot [...] Huh? I never had a Pilot, but from everything I've read about it (and how people who did have one describe it) it was quite amazing, and arguably the predecessor of the smartphone, no? I get that the product line is dead, but the concept was very much viable...

I used them for years, even delayed finally getting an Android because I liked my Treo so much (the Treo is a reminder that Palm combined the PIM with a phone long before Apple or Google did)

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#30

Post by dredmorbius »

electroly wrote: post #8
black_puppydog wrote: post #5

> [...] products that ultimately turned out to be dead ends, like the Palm Pilot [...] Huh? I never had a Pilot, but from everything I've read about it (and how people who did have one describe it) it was quite amazing, and arguably the predecessor of the smartphone, no? I get that the product line is dead, but the concept was very much viable...

I had several Palm devices. As I recall there was a fairly long gap between the death of PDAs and the birth of smartphones. I certainly did not replace my Palm with a smartphone; I replaced it with nothing, and then years later I got a smartphone. Most of the things that are amazing about smartphones were not present on my Palm IIIe, FWIW.

The Palm Treo and Pre filled in the gap between PDAs and smartphones. And of course there was the Blackberry from RIM, whose first true smartphone products (the 850 and 857) were released in 2002.

Keep in mind that the iPhone somewhat evolved from the iPod with the iPod Touch being effectively a WiFi-only iPhone. Largely what we'd call and iPad today, though the iPod Touch was produced through 2019 per Wikipedia.

There was also the Ericcson P900, a smartphone also released in 2002:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sony_Ericsson_P900>

I do miss much about the Palm III, specifically Grafitti. Modern e-ink tablets with notetaking capabilities somewhat supplant that.

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