Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

“A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

thediff.co

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

11–20 of 128 posts

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#11

Post by michaelhoffman »

electroly wrote: post #8
black_puppydog wrote: post #5

> [...] products that ultimately turned out to be dead ends, like the Palm Pilot [...] Huh? I never had a Pilot, but from everything I've read about it (and how people who did have one describe it) it was quite amazing, and arguably the predecessor of the smartphone, no? I get that the product line is dead, but the concept was very much viable...

I had several Palm devices. As I recall there was a fairly long gap between the death of PDAs and the birth of smartphones. I certainly did not replace my Palm with a smartphone; I replaced it with nothing, and then years later I got a smartphone. Most of the things that are amazing about smartphones were not present on my Palm IIIe, FWIW.

If we're trading anecdotes, I certainly replaced my Palm with a smartphone. In fact, my first smartphone was a Palm.

Anyway, I don't think the Palm Pilot was a dead end. It's hard to see it not influencing Blackberries and smartphones.

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#12

Post by bootsmann »

black_puppydog wrote: post #5

> [...] products that ultimately turned out to be dead ends, like the Palm Pilot [...] Huh? I never had a Pilot, but from everything I've read about it (and how people who did have one describe it) it was quite amazing, and arguably the predecessor of the smartphone, no? I get that the product line is dead, but the concept was very much viable...

Well the phone part is pushing it a bit here. I grew up after it but someone gave me one to hack around with as a teenager and iirc it had a mail client but to connect it to the internet you needed a cabled modem so you could only use these features when you were pretty much already at your PC anyways. The local file-transfer feature was cool tho, but again this required your counter-party to also have a palm.

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#13

Post by javier123454321 »

Above the fold, self promotion... below the fold, a popup to sign up without reading it. I can't be bothered to click out. I can be bothered however to write this comment to complain to the state of the SEOfication of all content. Maybe it's good, but I'm immediately skeptical.

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#14

Post by ipsi »

electroly wrote: post #8
black_puppydog wrote: post #5

> [...] products that ultimately turned out to be dead ends, like the Palm Pilot [...] Huh? I never had a Pilot, but from everything I've read about it (and how people who did have one describe it) it was quite amazing, and arguably the predecessor of the smartphone, no? I get that the product line is dead, but the concept was very much viable...

I had several Palm devices. As I recall there was a fairly long gap between the death of PDAs and the birth of smartphones. I certainly did not replace my Palm with a smartphone; I replaced it with nothing, and then years later I got a smartphone. Most of the things that are amazing about smartphones were not present on my Palm IIIe, FWIW.

> there was a fairly long gap between the death of PDAs and the birth of smartphones.

Only if you define the birth of smartphones as starting with Android/iPhone. Palm released their own smartphones using the same OS as their PDAs (the Treo line) prior to that, and Microsoft had Windows Mobile plus a bundle of third-party manufacturers. Plus Blackberry had been around the whole time, too.

Looking it up, it seems that Palm Tungsten TX[1] was produced in 2005, 1.5-2 years after they started producing the Treo 600[2], which was one of the first smartphones - yes, it was inferior to the iPhone in a number of ways, but having owned a Treo 680, in my mind it still qualifies as a smartphone.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palm_TX

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treo_600

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#15

Post by jameshart »

I think the point being made here is that when a solution has found its problem, exploitation of that solution drives up rates, because rolling out the solution is an ‘easy money’ investment. Seems reasonable. I can buy that connection. The motor vehicle example makes sense.

Of course you then have to hold that theory up to other cases and see if it holds. Like: where was the high rate era that followed from the invention of the internet? Rates have been falling more or less constantly since the mid nineties.

And I’m not sure that it logically follows that we will only find solutions in search of a problem during low rates eras, or that high rates only happen during times when a solution to a problem is in the exploitation phase.

So.. what’s the predictive value of this connection?

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#16

Post by _jal »

electroly wrote: post #8
black_puppydog wrote: post #5

> [...] products that ultimately turned out to be dead ends, like the Palm Pilot [...] Huh? I never had a Pilot, but from everything I've read about it (and how people who did have one describe it) it was quite amazing, and arguably the predecessor of the smartphone, no? I get that the product line is dead, but the concept was very much viable...

I had several Palm devices. As I recall there was a fairly long gap between the death of PDAs and the birth of smartphones. I certainly did not replace my Palm with a smartphone; I replaced it with nothing, and then years later I got a smartphone. Most of the things that are amazing about smartphones were not present on my Palm IIIe, FWIW.

My memory is that the sort of person who was really in to Palm's gear migrated to Blackberries.

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#17

Post by arcturus17 »

black_puppydog wrote: post #5

> [...] products that ultimately turned out to be dead ends, like the Palm Pilot [...] Huh? I never had a Pilot, but from everything I've read about it (and how people who did have one describe it) it was quite amazing, and arguably the predecessor of the smartphone, no? I get that the product line is dead, but the concept was very much viable...

My dad had a few iterations and used the hell out of them.

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#18

Post by PaulHoule »

I know interest rates have a strong effect on tech stocks but my understanding is that they have their biggest impact on boring but capital intensive businesses such as cars and buildings.

For instance Facebook was said to spend $10 billion on the "metaverse" last year but spending on building construction was about $1.5 trillion

https://www.zippia.com/advice/us-construction-industry-stati...

that said, total spending on R&D in the US was claimed to be about $660 billion in 2019

https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsb20221/u-s-and-global-research-...

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#19

Post by jen20 »

bootsmann wrote: post #12
black_puppydog wrote: post #5

> [...] products that ultimately turned out to be dead ends, like the Palm Pilot [...] Huh? I never had a Pilot, but from everything I've read about it (and how people who did have one describe it) it was quite amazing, and arguably the predecessor of the smartphone, no? I get that the product line is dead, but the concept was very much viable...

Well the phone part is pushing it a bit here. I grew up after it but someone gave me one to hack around with as a teenager and iirc it had a mail client but to connect it to the internet you needed a cabled modem so you could only use these features when you were pretty much already at your PC anyways. The local file-transfer feature was cool tho, but again this required your counter-party to also have a palm.

I had a Treo 600 and (more importantly) a Treo 650, which were direct descendants of the Pilot. In the years before the iPhone it meant I could read email etc on the way into the office - it was pretty great. Of course, the iPhone was a substantial leap forward, and Palm's unwillingness to realize that such a thing was even possible - combined with godawful native development tools - made it a victim pretty early on.

Re: “A solution in search of a problem” is a low-rates phenomenon

#20

Post by Raidion »

nerdponx wrote: post #9
black_puppydog wrote: post #5

> [...] products that ultimately turned out to be dead ends, like the Palm Pilot [...] Huh? I never had a Pilot, but from everything I've read about it (and how people who did have one describe it) it was quite amazing, and arguably the predecessor of the smartphone, no? I get that the product line is dead, but the concept was very much viable...

Calling it a dead end is like calling biplanes a dead end because now airplanes only have 1 wing on each side. And not even that analogy is apt, because even the stylus made a comeback briefly.

Stylus is now standard on the most expensive "non-folding" flagship from Samsung too.
Post reply on HN