I'll never forget my freshman year investment analysis professor angrily and incoherently (to us hungover, careless freshmen) ranting about QE and going out for chain-smoking-breaks. It's so clear now.
What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?
201–210 of 393 posts
Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?
#202Can anyone explain to me why we don't have a policy of 'natural' or 'equilibrium' interest rate? As I studied finance in college in the 2010s I was aghast to realize that the US had basically turned into a centrally planned economy, and could not wrap my head around how any serious economist could advocate for the paradigm with a straight face. I'll never forget my freshman year investment analysis professor angrily…
Could you enlighten us? What is so clear?
Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?
#203Earlier quoted context omitted.
> As someone semi familiar with this stuff Your comment suggests the opposite.
Expectations for a fraction of a percentage interest rate move should not be the dominant narrative and driving volatility to such an extent. Positive GDP growth and falling unemployment used to be a good thing, this year they are deeply bearish.
Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?
#204Given that putting interest rates up is an artificial intervention into the market for money, what if your worldview is based around allowing financial institutions to extract rent by taxing people for setting up home? Why is setting the price of money artificially - which gives free government money to financial institutions - better than the alternative: setting the base price of labour by guaranteeing people a job…
From my parents' experience guaranteeing people a job will only result in people idling at job site because there is no work to do instead of people idling at home or possibly studying for a job they want to do. Giving artificial jobs don't differ much from giving people artificially valued money.
There's a big difference. It uses up the hours so they can't self consume them. And they are forced to turn up on time, and stay the day - or they don't get paid.
Which goes back to the root of our exchange system. We don't really exchange money, that's just a token - we exchange the output of our time, which is finite, and therefore valuable.
A job is a way of giving up your hours for the benefit of others.
Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?
#205I just can’t take this person seriously. Clearly written by a non-expert and the questions/ideas are, as a result, well-trodden ground without anything original to add. Take this representative quote “It’s Jerome Powell’s world: never before have I seen markets move so erratically in response to a once-boring Jackson Hole conference. Actually, the first time I ever heard of this event was this year since some acquain…
Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?
#206Given that putting interest rates up is an artificial intervention into the market for money, what if your worldview is based around allowing financial institutions to extract rent by taxing people for setting up home? Why is setting the price of money artificially - which gives free government money to financial institutions - better than the alternative: setting the base price of labour by guaranteeing people a job…
For what it's worth, I don't fundamentally disagree with the MMT viewpoint that you're coming from. But it's not so clear cut. > gives free government money to financial institutions By this, the parent means that nonzero interest rates on government debt represents "free money" that the government pays voluntarily even though it doesn't have to. I'm not so sure. First of all, most of the institutions getting these p…
Except that can't happen can it.
If Loans create deposits, then to get more savings, you need more loans. You can't have one without the other.
What they are trying to do its get people to pay off loans. How many people do you know who pay off loans in the middle of an inflation?
Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?
#207Given that putting interest rates up is an artificial intervention into the market for money, what if your worldview is based around allowing financial institutions to extract rent by taxing people for setting up home? Why is setting the price of money artificially - which gives free government money to financial institutions - better than the alternative: setting the base price of labour by guaranteeing people a job…
For what it's worth, I don't fundamentally disagree with the MMT viewpoint that you're coming from. But it's not so clear cut. > gives free government money to financial institutions By this, the parent means that nonzero interest rates on government debt represents "free money" that the government pays voluntarily even though it doesn't have to. I'm not so sure. First of all, most of the institutions getting these p…
Doesn't matter (ultimately it is a political choice). The point of the job is to use up hours so you can't use them yourself. It forces the spending of time - which is the actual underlying exchange amount.
If you give up your time for others, then others will give up their time for you.
Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?
#208Earlier quoted context omitted.
While I try not to comment to 'defend my views' because it's a bit lame, I have to plainly say I am not "just opening my eyes to the huge role central banks play in the economy." I have been following markets many years, both as an investor and because I enjoy reading about economic history (also as part of my study). My whole point with that sentence was - did you ever pay attention to a Jackson Hole conference befo…
Are you the writer? In what way was the rise of Vanguard driven by cheap credit?
But their growing concentration (esp. regarding Vanguard) has also worked to naturalize some of the largest companies as a 'group.' This kind of frame became sort of unavoidable amid all of them rising, so it's hard to separate the 'cheap money' environment from Vanguard's influence growing - especially since this macro environment also allowed for their entry into other ballooning assets like real estate w/ their ETF (which has been controversial)
The problem with this growing concentration is that, as Vanguard becomes a major holder of every top stock, then all those grouped assets are going to start moving more and more in lockstep the further the concentration grows. And that's less and less of a market to me, and more just a artifice unrelated to actual profitability. In all, this is another child of the post-Great Recession cheap money environment, although how directly you want to tie them together is debatable
Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?
#209Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure you can if people take individual action based on their honest believes a lot can change. If people simply virtue signal without taking basic actions that are available to them then there is 0 chance something will change.
I'm not suggesting virtue signaling. Paying your maid more than market wage is virtue signaling. Voting for a party working to increase her bargaining power is not. We need both individual action and political reform.
Is it? They're more likely to stay in that job and ask for more money on other jobs because now they know it's possible.
Just like we devs know we can make FAANG salaries and our asking price is adjusted accordingly.
Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?
#210I think the article brings up too many separate concepts without sufficiently tying them together. One of the most basic concepts you have to accept to agree with the premise of the article is that the Fed kept interest rates low to transfer wealth to the wealthy. > After the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve instituted a zero or near-zero interest rate regime. The philosophy behind it was simple: > > The Fed’s “s…
I never understood the negative attention stock buybacks have received relative to dividends. They do basically do the same thing, but nobody is offended when companies pay a dividend.
"Excessive dividend payouts, however, can undercut investment in productive capabilities in the same way that buybacks can."
[0] https://hbr.org/2020/01/why-stock-buybacks-are-dangerous-for...