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What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

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Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#181

Post by nosianu »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #124
miguelazo wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has skewed the labor market to an insane degree. So much talent went into idiotic pursuits, and away from anything that had to do with public service.

My wife's uncles is one of the top doctors in his field in the country, and was the head of department in the country's top medical university. He makes less money than me, even though I'm 35 years younger and my "skills" include some basic coding, some marketing, and some understanding of social media. Whereas this man has spent nearly 50 years in the medical field and has treated multiple presidents. None of the st…

> Enrollment in the medical field is falling drastically because no one wants to work years to make less money than some 24 year old with two years of coding experience.

Good comment overall, but I think the issues in the medical field are less about compensation and much much more about insane working conditions and a lot of disincentives. If you want a glimpse at some of it, maybe occasionally check out https://old.reddit.com/r/medicine/ or blog posts and articles.

Same problems here in Germany, but maybe - hope dies last - some movement? https://www.independent.co.uk/news/ap-berlin-b2239733.html

> An expert panel has unveiled a proposal for a major overhaul of Germany’s system for funding hospitals that it says will promote quality over quantity

EDIT (after responses):

If you have a hammer... The nice thing about always thinking everything is "money" is that everybody can join any discussion. There is no need to look at the details of the specific issue. Sorry for the sarcasm, but I think this fits sooo many discussions. Similar with discussions around education too.

Simultaneously we have plenty of threads right on HN where people realize life satisfaction surprisingly does not hinge on pay - after some threshold, where the basic worries about how to get the basic necessities without worrying.

Sure extreme pay would get quite a few more people into health care, but it would be an extremely unhealthy and inefficient way. Yes you can just not solve the actual major problems and just throw money at an issue, and especially younger people will see it as an opportunity to bite the bullet and endure bad conditions to work in that job for a while, to have a lot of money for middle age.

On the other hand, if a minimum pay is guaranteed, the environment, satisfaction with the job and the environment, and the feeling of doing something really useful for society, become much better places for adjustments than pay. Especially when it's as bad as it is right now, which is kind of extreme. Just looking at 24 hour shifts, really??? Health care is the last place where that should exist, since that's the place where there should be the most knowledge about how bad for long-term health and also for short-term efficiency this is. I would not enter that field for that one thing alone already, because it's just too ridiculous. Once in a while out of necessity, sure, but as regular part of the system?

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#182

Post by flakeoil »

lmm wrote: post #147
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My wife's uncles is one of the top doctors in his field in the country, and was the head of department in the country's top medical university. He makes less money than me, even though I'm 35 years younger and my "skills" include some basic coding, some marketing, and some understanding of social media. Whereas this man has spent nearly 50 years in the medical field and has treated multiple presidents. None of the st…

> All that free money has seriously misaligned societies incentives. Enrollment in the medical field is falling drastically because no one wants to work years to make less money than some 24 year old with two years of coding experience. Sounds like a problem that's sorting itself out. There were far too many people who wanted to be doctors; maybe if the supply drops the medical industry might have to - gasp - do some…

> There were far too many people who wanted to be doctors; maybe if the supply drops...

Actually, the problem is not that no-one wants to become a doctor, the issue is that there are too few open places in the medical schools. If it's due to lobbying by doctor's organizations or just bad planning by governments or something else I do not know. In all countries I have some visibility into there is no lack of people wanting to attend medical school and there are qualified applicants in the order of 100 to 1. And there is an accute need of doctors (and nurses) in those countries.

And regarding doctor's pay, I do not necessarily agree that it is too low, but I agree the salaries for software engineers is too high in many regions, particularly in the US, and certainly on the west coast.

And to nuance my comment on doctor's pay, I think it is important to note that a doctor has to study and practice in a hospital for about a total time of 10 years before graduating as an MD and start earning a decent salary. Thus many years of lost salary if comparing that with an engineer, and even more if comparing to someone just taking a couple of years of programming courses.

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#184

Post by jsmith99 »

antonomon wrote: post #179
RayVR wrote: post #117

I just can’t take this person seriously. Clearly written by a non-expert and the questions/ideas are, as a result, well-trodden ground without anything original to add. Take this representative quote “It’s Jerome Powell’s world: never before have I seen markets move so erratically in response to a once-boring Jackson Hole conference. Actually, the first time I ever heard of this event was this year since some acquain…

While I try not to comment to 'defend my views' because it's a bit lame, I have to plainly say I am not "just opening my eyes to the huge role central banks play in the economy." I have been following markets many years, both as an investor and because I enjoy reading about economic history (also as part of my study). My whole point with that sentence was - did you ever pay attention to a Jackson Hole conference befo…

Are you the writer? In what way was the rise of Vanguard driven by cheap credit?

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#185

Post by unholythree »

geysersam wrote: post #171
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My country has a massive shortage of doctors. There's also a virtual cap to how much doctors can charge for consultation - most people, outside of a small minority of tech elite, can't afford to pay any higher fees. My wife's uncle's fees is already high enough that only the wealthy can afford him. The problem doesn't seem to be sorting itself out. On the contrary, it's making access to people like him even harder fo…

> there's an oversupply of unskilled labor That's interesting. What's unskilled about them? Could they not also learn some coding and marketing. Sounds like a worthwhile investment if they might 50x their salaries. (In fact, with those numbers, even if it takes them 30 years it would still 10x their life earnings...)

I suspect a lack of general education and/or “soft skills”. I say this as a resident of a poorer US city, there are tons of barely literate people incapable of performing simple math who also don’t know how to handle conflict or social friction effectively.

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#186

Post by Juliate »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #152
lmm wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All that free money has seriously misaligned societies incentives. Enrollment in the medical field is falling drastically because no one wants to work years to make less money than some 24 year old with two years of coding experience. Sounds like a problem that's sorting itself out. There were far too many people who wanted to be doctors; maybe if the supply drops the medical industry might have to - gasp - do some…

My country has a massive shortage of doctors. There's also a virtual cap to how much doctors can charge for consultation - most people, outside of a small minority of tech elite, can't afford to pay any higher fees. My wife's uncle's fees is already high enough that only the wealthy can afford him. The problem doesn't seem to be sorting itself out. On the contrary, it's making access to people like him even harder fo…

> The solution would be to pay the maid more, but there's an oversupply of unskilled labor

The… misstep in reasoning here seems to me to consider that « maid » (and many other low-wage ones) is unskilled labor and/or painless, thus « deserves » lower wages.

I can say from witnessing it first-hand that not 1 in 10 of those high-profiles engineers or managers I have met are not at all equipped to work as a maid.

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#187

Post by fragmede »

benj111 wrote: post #170
IncRnd wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A stock is worth the present value of future dividends. Not every stock pays dividends. A stock's worth is determined by supply and demand in a market or directly between the seller and the prospective purchaser.

There has to be some basis for valuation. If you buy a stock, not because you expect it to pay something but because you expect someone to pay more later for the same reason you don't have investment. You have speculation. Yes there are other methods for distributing profits (stock buy backs) but unless you're saying it's a massive Ponzi scheme, then the value has to come from something real.

The market can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent. What the years of free money proved is that the points are made up anyway. If you stayed playing the old game of PE ratios and market fundamentals you lost out on a ton of gainz in years past other than this one. The value comes down to how much the next sucker is winning to pay for what you're selling.

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#189

Post by qaq »

geysersam wrote: post #178
qaq wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure you can if people take individual action based on their honest believes a lot can change. If people simply virtue signal without taking basic actions that are available to them then there is 0 chance something will change.

I'm not suggesting virtue signaling. Paying your maid more than market wage is virtue signaling. Voting for a party working to increase her bargaining power is not. We need both individual action and political reform.

No it's not. Crocodile tears about how unfair it is for her to make so little instead of paying her more is virtue signaling. Dems have being in power in CA forever voting for them is not going to change maids wage.

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#190

Post by benjaminwootton »

blitzar wrote: post #157
benjaminwootton wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone semi familiar with this stuff, it is fairly notable how rates are moving markets right now. Say the payroll number misses consensus by 5%, meaning there’s a fraction of a percent less chance of a 0.75% rise in rates vs 0.5%. The stock market then rallies by 2% or a few hundred $billion in market cap. Surely that isn’t a healthy market when changes in fractional rate expectations create so much volatility.

> As someone semi familiar with this stuff Your comment suggests the opposite.

Expectations for a fraction of a percentage interest rate move should not be the dominant narrative and driving volatility to such an extent. Positive GDP growth and falling unemployment used to be a good thing, this year they are deeply bearish.
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