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Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

thetimes.co.uk

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Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#11

Post by keewee7 »

One reason that sanctions haven't had an apparent immediate effect is that the Russian economy was already in a slow downward spiral. The Russian economy peaked in 2013 and has been going down hill since then. The Russian society has already been hardened by these 9 years of "hard times" and not to forget the much harder times in the 1990s.

Another reason is that Western companies stopped their sales in Russia while the West continues to buy natural gas from Russia. Short-term macroeconomic numbers will regard this as an improvement of Russia's trade balance even slightly boost their GDP.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#12

Post by IgorPartola »

lawn wrote: post #7
IgorPartola wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He drafted 300,000 in the partial mobilization. There were I believe three other call ups before then that didn’t quite reach into 100k range but were close. Also relatively comparable numbers have left Russia during the partial mobilization, so losing a million able workers from the workforce is not an unreasonable estimate.

That's what they claim anyway. Corruption, fear and propaganda is absolutely rampant, so it's very likely some numbers are adjusted.

ISW had verified independent reports that while they didn’t quite meet the goal, they were close. And tens of thousands of the poorly trained call ups had already shown up on the front lines.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#13

Post by IgorPartola »

greggarious wrote: post #9

They're running out of things like missles and bombs though IIRC? Why don't we honor the Budapest agreement and let the Ukrainians finish off Putin's regime with US made weapons if we are going to play word games about the difference between NATO and a firm and unambiguous promise to defend a nation if they give up their nuclear weapons? The people of Russia don't seem to want this war, they are conscripted. (From wh…

Because nukes. If Ukrainians push into Russia (which to be clear, they can’t for many other reasons aside from weapons), Russia would launch nukes and that could make the entirety of Europe uninhabitable for centuries.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#14

Post by H8crilA »

keewee7 wrote: post #11

One reason that sanctions haven't had an apparent immediate effect is that the Russian economy was already in a slow downward spiral. The Russian economy peaked in 2013 and has been going down hill since then. The Russian society has already been hardened by these 9 years of "hard times" and not to forget the much harder times in the 1990s. Another reason is that Western companies stopped their sales in Russia while…

Yeah, and consider the effect that it has on the rouble: with lots of sales (of mostly energy) but nowhere to spend that money the rouble is actually likely to appreciate rather than depreciate. I'm referring here to the premature celebration of the "death of the rouble", you may remember this narrative. This is still a bit obfuscated by the ongoing sale of the Russian foreign reserves (the ~50% that wasn't frozen). But generally speaking the rouble needn't decrease in value, despite the sanctions taking the intended effect.

If you're still unconvinced then look at the granddaddy of all deflations, the great depression. Caused by the freezing of trade it was (in most countries) experienced through the appreciation of the value of currency - deflation, rather than inflation.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#15

Post by qikInNdOutReply »

IgorPartola wrote: post #10

As a Ukrainian, good! This war should have a long cost to Russia. They are certainly causing long term damage to Ukraine by destroying Ukrainian culture where they can, using rape as a widespread war tactic, and relocating Ukrainian children to Russia “for their own good” (see any recent ISW report for details). Having said that, the real thing that appears to have happened in this war is that Putin is a KGB stooge,…

Question: Are there plans to get hostages in russia to get your citizens back? After all there are citys beyond the border?

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#16

Post by 082349872349872 »

H8crilA wrote: post #14
keewee7 wrote: post #11

One reason that sanctions haven't had an apparent immediate effect is that the Russian economy was already in a slow downward spiral. The Russian economy peaked in 2013 and has been going down hill since then. The Russian society has already been hardened by these 9 years of "hard times" and not to forget the much harder times in the 1990s. Another reason is that Western companies stopped their sales in Russia while…

Yeah, and consider the effect that it has on the rouble: with lots of sales (of mostly energy) but nowhere to spend that money the rouble is actually likely to appreciate rather than depreciate. I'm referring here to the premature celebration of the "death of the rouble", you may remember this narrative. This is still a bit obfuscated by the ongoing sale of the Russian foreign reserves (the ~50% that wasn't frozen).…

Heh. I sometimes wonder how vulnerable the US would be to a squeeze appreciating USD. You could probably even get large parts of the US political class to go along with it, as (in the short term) they'd be benefiting relative to their countrymen.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#17

Post by BurningFrog »

IgorPartola wrote: post #13
greggarious wrote: post #9

They're running out of things like missles and bombs though IIRC? Why don't we honor the Budapest agreement and let the Ukrainians finish off Putin's regime with US made weapons if we are going to play word games about the difference between NATO and a firm and unambiguous promise to defend a nation if they give up their nuclear weapons? The people of Russia don't seem to want this war, they are conscripted. (From wh…

Because nukes. If Ukrainians push into Russia (which to be clear, they can’t for many other reasons aside from weapons), Russia would launch nukes and that could make the entirety of Europe uninhabitable for centuries.

Maybe they would. But I doubt they're that suicidal.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#18

Post by greggarious »

IgorPartola wrote: post #13
greggarious wrote: post #9

They're running out of things like missles and bombs though IIRC? Why don't we honor the Budapest agreement and let the Ukrainians finish off Putin's regime with US made weapons if we are going to play word games about the difference between NATO and a firm and unambiguous promise to defend a nation if they give up their nuclear weapons? The people of Russia don't seem to want this war, they are conscripted. (From wh…

Because nukes. If Ukrainians push into Russia (which to be clear, they can’t for many other reasons aside from weapons), Russia would launch nukes and that could make the entirety of Europe uninhabitable for centuries.

>Because nukes. If Ukrainians push into Russia (which to be clear, they can’t for many other reasons aside from weapons)

So this is like Vietnam (can't go into Cambodia or China) but with much larger counties? (To vastly oversimplify)

(And sorry, I've been avoiding the news of the war since it's stressful)

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#19

Post by temptemptemp111 »

IgorPartola wrote: post #10

As a Ukrainian, good! This war should have a long cost to Russia. They are certainly causing long term damage to Ukraine by destroying Ukrainian culture where they can, using rape as a widespread war tactic, and relocating Ukrainian children to Russia “for their own good” (see any recent ISW report for details). Having said that, the real thing that appears to have happened in this war is that Putin is a KGB stooge,…

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