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Is America Stealing TSMC?

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Re: Is America Stealing TSMC?

#41

Post by Frost1x »

dirtyid wrote: post #25
porkbrain wrote: post #5

Seems like a well sourced video. Here are some notes of what's discussed: - The factories are not joint ventures, they are fully owned by Taiwan. - Build-outs in US are not going to be the most cutting edge technology. - TSMC has ~$36bn in capital expenditures in 2022. The Arizona fab is ~$9bn a year. Majority of TSMC investment remains in Taiwan. - TSMC produces ~15m waifers a year, ~80% produced in Taiwan. Arizona…

Except video skips the primary purpose/argument of reshoring onto US soil is de-risking in case of potential PRC-TW scenario. In which case US will likely nationalize these fabs, aka stealing, for even the small but critical strategical capacity they fill. The more accurate assessment is America is setting up contingency to steal some of TSMC in event of PRC trying to steal most of TSMC. Or that Chang wasn't exactly…

Derisking and geographically diversifying these assets (crucial unique capabilities, technologies, skills, processes, etc.) are IMO the most obvious wins here. If there's a PRC-TW invasion, at least some assets will exist outside Taiwan that can be leveraged to scale out beyond going from scratch, this really gives a head start.

I'm not entirely sure the goal in the US is to nationalize the resources to mask a 'steal' although I'm sure nationalization is a thought out contingency. I think TSMC ownership and people of Taiwan wouldn't need much incentive to scale up and would happily welcome an onpour of resources from the US and other governments should China invade or pressure them. The US isn't typically in the game of flat out stealing although it's undoubtedly a last resort desperation option that's embedded in this decision making.

Also, if I were Taiwan, this helps remove at least one strategic attraction from a PRC invasion scenario. It takes the option of basically controlling world chip supplies off the table as an incentive for PRC. There are undoubtedly plenty of other incentives, but it's one less thing in their cost/benefit analysis of an invasion that could help sway the decision away from an invasion.

Re: Is America Stealing TSMC?

#42

Post by csomar »

dirtyid wrote: post #25
porkbrain wrote: post #5

Seems like a well sourced video. Here are some notes of what's discussed: - The factories are not joint ventures, they are fully owned by Taiwan. - Build-outs in US are not going to be the most cutting edge technology. - TSMC has ~$36bn in capital expenditures in 2022. The Arizona fab is ~$9bn a year. Majority of TSMC investment remains in Taiwan. - TSMC produces ~15m waifers a year, ~80% produced in Taiwan. Arizona…

Except video skips the primary purpose/argument of reshoring onto US soil is de-risking in case of potential PRC-TW scenario. In which case US will likely nationalize these fabs, aka stealing, for even the small but critical strategical capacity they fill. The more accurate assessment is America is setting up contingency to steal some of TSMC in event of PRC trying to steal most of TSMC. Or that Chang wasn't exactly…

They don't really need to "steal it" as in take it from their owners. The owners will own it in the US and will probably have an incentive to keep running their operation if Taiwan takes a hit.

It is getting stolen from "Taiwan", however. Since Taiwan guarantee for independence is the world's dependence on its chips.

Re: Is America Stealing TSMC?

#43

Post by dirtyid »

rob74 wrote: post #34
dirtyid wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except video skips the primary purpose/argument of reshoring onto US soil is de-risking in case of potential PRC-TW scenario. In which case US will likely nationalize these fabs, aka stealing, for even the small but critical strategical capacity they fill. The more accurate assessment is America is setting up contingency to steal some of TSMC in event of PRC trying to steal most of TSMC. Or that Chang wasn't exactly…

Why should the US nationalize these fabs? I mean, regardless of whether China invades Taiwan or not, the fabs located in the US are owned by TSMC, and TSMC is owned by TSMC's shareholders, which will likely remain the same regardless of whether the state of Taiwan still exists...

The same reason west confiscated Russian reserves, and destroyed historic economic linkages via sanctions. You can't "regardless" of invasion when invasion/not invasion are qualifiably different geopolitical realities. Most analysis suggest at minimum there will be heavy PRC sanctions in event of invasion, a successful one would make TSMC a PRC controlled company, which which will not be business as usual for TSMC operations or share holders.

Re: Is America Stealing TSMC?

#44

Post by ClarityJones »

VictorPath wrote: post #31
refurb wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan as a sovereign state wouldn’t exist without US backing. And at least reading between the lines with China, Taiwans days are numbered. They’re choice is move their factories offshore or give them up to China.

> Taiwan as a sovereign state Does the USA recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state? No. Does the PRC recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state? No. Does Taiwan recognize itself as a sovereign state separate from mainland China? No.

> Does Taiwan recognize itself as a sovereign state separate from mainland China? No.

The Republic of China (Taiwan) is not going to say that China is separate from china. Their position is that Taiwan is the rightful ruler of mainland china (currently controlled by the communist party).

Re: Is America Stealing TSMC?

#45

Post by [deleted] »

marmarama wrote: post #12

No more than Toyota having a factory in the US is "stealing" Toyota. Manufacturers in almost all sectors, including silicon foundries, have had manufacturing operations worldwide for decades. Centuries even. For all sorts of economic, customer, and government reasons, as well as simple diversification. Taiwan is still going to be TSMC's home base. Besides, if TSMC didn't open a US foundry then the US government would…

[deleted]

Re: Is America Stealing TSMC?

#46

Post by mrtksn »

lvl102 wrote: post #26
mrtksn wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of US funded research is also globally funded because US attracts lots of talent and that talent costs quite a lot to educate. If there weren't the immigrants, the US wouldn't be the tech and science superpower that it is today. Kudos for providing the opportunities for these brilliant people, great success through the year of executing programs for bringing Nazi scientists, Soviet scientists etc. but if we are…

You sound like someone who lives in the 50s. US higher ed is not funded globally at all. In fact US indirectly funds institutions abroad because many of the top academics were trained in the US especially in sciences. And just why do you think all these brilliant people leave for the US? Let’s think about that for a moment.

Taiwanese Tech developed over work of Americans is American but tech developed over the work of Germans/British/French/Japanese is also American, got it. My apologies for sounding from 50s, my school is apparently 70 years behind.

May I as you what great school gave you this powerful reasoning powers are are you self taught?

Re: Is America Stealing TSMC?

#47

Post by dirtyid »

Frost1x wrote: post #41
dirtyid wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except video skips the primary purpose/argument of reshoring onto US soil is de-risking in case of potential PRC-TW scenario. In which case US will likely nationalize these fabs, aka stealing, for even the small but critical strategical capacity they fill. The more accurate assessment is America is setting up contingency to steal some of TSMC in event of PRC trying to steal most of TSMC. Or that Chang wasn't exactly…

Derisking and geographically diversifying these assets (crucial unique capabilities, technologies, skills, processes, etc.) are IMO the most obvious wins here. If there's a PRC-TW invasion, at least some assets will exist outside Taiwan that can be leveraged to scale out beyond going from scratch, this really gives a head start. I'm not entirely sure the goal in the US is to nationalize the resources to mask a 'steal…

> contingency

Yes but I think important to recognize that contingency is the large basis of the "stealing" TSMC narrative. The other consideration TW semi workers who get to jump the H1B VISA line eyeing for immigration shortcut to US if that option ever opens up = expertise transfers to Intel/US semi. Both US and TW has restricted TW semi talent from working in PRC semi to prevent knowledge transfer, the same concern applies when TW talent is in US, who has much better capacity to brain drain and "steal" expertise.

> TSMC ownership and people of Taiwan wouldn't need much incentive to scale up

There's been ample signals that TSMC leadership are weary of Arizonal expansion, and the meme of of US stealing TSMC are from murmurs in TW by people unhappy with erosion of silicon shield. On the flip side you have TSMC leadership angry that US export controls is cutting off major revenue / future growth in PRC, while underpaid semi workers are angry over controls to work in PRC semi for massive compensation. Opinion on the island falls in camp of preserving silicon shield (i.e. no leading edge fabs abroad) to leverage US into assistance. Or preserve silicon shield to keep money printing strategic industry for barter with PRC if US doesn't assist. There isn't a camp that thinks scaling up TSMC infra outside of island is a good idea that I'm aware of. Also I want to wadger even without funding UKR war, US weapon sales / deliveries to TW has been susipiciously slow with many dates set after fab openning, almost like onpour of US resources is dependant building these fabs in first place.

>one less thing

I argue it's one more thing with Oct export controls, since PRC has even less access to leading edge semi from island, vs US who maintains unrestricted access. Now there is more incentive, arguably pressing short/medium term need, to distrupt TW semi because it would hurt US disproportionately more, and close relative semi gap.

Re: Is America Stealing TSMC?

#48

Post by martin_a »

tartuffe78 wrote: post #39
martin_a wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> give them up to China I'm not sure the US would let this happen. Maybe they'd just level the factories with cruise missiles before China can get hold of them.

Maybe if it was a WW3 scenario, but otherwise where would we get our chips?

Maybe from plants in the US or somewhere else in the world. I think in the end it's more important (from the perspective of the US) that China will not get that technology.

Re: Is America Stealing TSMC?

#49

Post by oreally »

grumple wrote: post #35
porkbrain wrote: post #5

Seems like a well sourced video. Here are some notes of what's discussed: - The factories are not joint ventures, they are fully owned by Taiwan. - Build-outs in US are not going to be the most cutting edge technology. - TSMC has ~$36bn in capital expenditures in 2022. The Arizona fab is ~$9bn a year. Majority of TSMC investment remains in Taiwan. - TSMC produces ~15m waifers a year, ~80% produced in Taiwan. Arizona…

TSMC is a public company. Last news I see shows a drop to 73% of the company being foreign-owned. The biggest shareholders are American. It might be more accurate to say it's an American company that operates in Taiwan.

Is the US chinese-owned because it's amongst the top holders of the US's debt then? Of course not.

If you think american shareholders have a huge say in the running of the company, or can claim their works and assets anytime like you've been saying, get real. American shareholders only care if the profits TSMC line up their pockets.

Re: Is America Stealing TSMC?

#50

Post by refurb »

VictorPath wrote: post #31
refurb wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan as a sovereign state wouldn’t exist without US backing. And at least reading between the lines with China, Taiwans days are numbered. They’re choice is move their factories offshore or give them up to China.

> Taiwan as a sovereign state Does the USA recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state? No. Does the PRC recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state? No. Does Taiwan recognize itself as a sovereign state separate from mainland China? No.

The US position is just politics between super powers. They’re literally sending high technology weapons to counter China.

The only body that makes decisions about Taiwan is the Taiwanese government. It has 100% control of the land within its borders.

Not sure how much more sovereign you can get than that.

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