I was thinking about ipv6 the other day. I concluded in my head that adoption was just around 5-10%. Luckily I went to verify that with statistics. https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html While price of ipv4 addresses are increasing, the world has slowly been adopting ipv6. From the graph above, I'd say we cross over 50% in about 2-3 years time. At some point the "dash" to adopt ipv6 starts, and brave fol…
> At some point the "dash" to adopt ipv6 starts, and brave folks will drop support for ipv4. I wouldn't be sure about that. I don't see any "dash" to support v6 in our future, when the option to just keep working around issues with v4 is so much easier and cheaper in the moment. Really, what does anyone have to gain by switching to v6?
CGNAT sucks. Stuff blocks you because you get lumped in with other users. You can't take inbound connections. Average users don't know that, but they get annoyed with side effects. Not being able to play multiplayer stuff or it being slow/high latency because of no inbound connection. Having to do extra CAPTCHAs, being straight out blocked, etc...
Price and annoyance are absolutely things people want to avoid.
I guarantee you at some point, some ISP is going to realise they can market themselves as the gamer ISP and sell IPv6 as the option for pro gamers to ensure the lowest latency in their games. CGNAT will be the congested roads, IPv6 the open motorway. (To be clear, it obviously isn't that simple, but I'd put money on that's how they'll sell it.)