TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab • Hacker News Board

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#271

Post by starkd » Wed, Dec 07, 2022, 2:36 PM UTC

boc wrote: post #69

starkd wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it makes it more likely that China is going to swallow up Taiwan without even firing a shot. Wargame simulations are giving a dim prospect for defending the island. US has removed fighter jets from Japan. And public opinion in Taiwan for resisting China has slightly shifted toward accomadation. I hope I am wrong.

If China really thinks their completely untested military can easily pull off the largest amphibious assault in history, they deserve the results. It would be an absolute bloodbath. Wargame simulations are ways for the pentagon to get more money from congress… the reality is that invasions aren’t easy to hide and never go quite as planned. If you disagree just go read up on the wargames and predictions for a Russian…

That's why I said "without firing a shot". Yes, a full-on invasion would most certainly be complicated. But the war excercises China is conducting are done for the purposes of intimidation, getting concessions before it even comes to that.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#272

Post by starkd » Wed, Dec 07, 2022, 2:44 PM UTC

philliphaydon wrote: post #138

starkd wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it makes it more likely that China is going to swallow up Taiwan without even firing a shot. Wargame simulations are giving a dim prospect for defending the island. US has removed fighter jets from Japan. And public opinion in Taiwan for resisting China has slightly shifted toward accomadation. I hope I am wrong.

> And public opinion in Taiwan for resisting China has slightly shifted toward accomadation. Huh? No it hasn’t. Taiwan doesn’t want to end up like Hong kong. They know the 1 country 2 systems doesn’t exist. Taiwan is already an independent country. They just want to keep status quo so China will leave them alone.

There is still widespread anti-unification support, but, as with everything, it's a bit more complex. Recent elections took a bit of the wind out of its sails. Chinese military excercises have taken somewhat of a toll. I know they don't want to end up like Hong Kong, but these public shifts matter if the people don't think they are being supported internationally.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-27/taiwan-el...

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#273

Post by starkd » Wed, Dec 07, 2022, 2:46 PM UTC

fintechjock wrote: post #90

starkd wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it makes it more likely that China is going to swallow up Taiwan without even firing a shot. Wargame simulations are giving a dim prospect for defending the island. US has removed fighter jets from Japan. And public opinion in Taiwan for resisting China has slightly shifted toward accomadation. I hope I am wrong.

> US has removed fighter jets from Japan. They’re phasing out older variants of the F-15 C. They will be replaced by F-15 EXs when they are ready, and until then the old F-15s will be replaced with F-22s

Well, that's good to know. I hope you're right. The story I read neglected to mention that information.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#274

Post by starkd » Wed, Dec 07, 2022, 2:48 PM UTC

FpUser wrote: post #64

starkd wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it makes it more likely that China is going to swallow up Taiwan without even firing a shot. Wargame simulations are giving a dim prospect for defending the island. US has removed fighter jets from Japan. And public opinion in Taiwan for resisting China has slightly shifted toward accomadation. I hope I am wrong.

>"I think it makes it more likely that China is going to swallow up Taiwan without even firing a shot." I am not sure about "without even firing a shot" part but golden parachute type people and important staff will most likely be relocated to the US right before that and the rest of Taiwanese will have to suck it up. Yes very sad story and I hope it does not happen.

I think about half Taiwan exports go to the mainland. That is a signficant pull towards people favoring unification, if China really wants to play hardball. (And they will.) It all depends on the Taiwanese will to fight.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#275

Post by PM_me_your_math » Wed, Dec 07, 2022, 2:56 PM UTC

tony_cannistra wrote: post #92

Mistletoe wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Should people live in an area with no water? It feels like we have so many problems caused by people just not living in the locations in the USA where there is lots of rainfall and water. I have tons of water, my state just uses lakes filled by rainwater. We make electricity with it too. https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Average_precipitat... I always find it interesting that people keep cramming into the wes…

I hear you, but I feel like this argument is fraught. We can't (shouldn't) really be telling people what they can/can't do. We can restructure incentives, though. (e.g.: taxes). Perhaps this is just kicking the ethical quandary down the road.

A more appropriate term would be disincentive, in your example about taxes. You are more or less telling them what to do by hitting them in a wallet. Sin taxes and enriching government to change behavior the government wants is practically synonymous and not appropriate in 99% of cases.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#276

Post by PM_me_your_math » Wed, Dec 07, 2022, 3:01 PM UTC

tony_cannistra wrote: post #112

adam_arthur wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil pipelines have already proven the economic viability. The choice of abandoning trillions of real estate vs a 10s of billions infrastructure project is obvious. Article cites the cost as $14B which is effectively nothing vs the alternative. Even $100B is nothing. These two TSMC fabs are $40B alone So much fearmongering from economically illiterate people. Use your brain

I hate to break it to you, but your "economically illiterate people" might actually understand some fundamental social and political realities that you've not yet had the chance to reckon with. Not to mention the physical realities of water resources. Your comparison to oil pipelines is nonsense. Where to start: privatization, a global commodity market, relative scarcity, massive extractive capex.... Sure, we built o…

Over the years, I've learned that "fundamental social and political realities" are often salesmanship driven solely by agendas. There is the reality and there is fantasy. The reality is we walk over more water (1000x) than there is in all of our rivers and lakes.

Humans need water. We don't need to use less of it. We need more of it and there is plenty of it. For example, farms need water to grow food. Humans need food (and water) or we die. And water isn't going anywhere. It doesn't get destroyed. As you probably know, there is a water cycle. It falls out of the sky, bubbles up from the ground, and can be found by drilling for it, just like our most critical energy sources.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#277

Post by KoftaBob » Wed, Dec 07, 2022, 3:23 PM UTC

sdsd wrote: post #221

KoftaBob wrote: post #8

I've been trying to build a habit lately of finding the primary source of news like this, especially since news agencies seem to be very hit or miss with whether they link to their primary source. So for whoever is interested, this is the original announcement by TSMC themselves: https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/2977

Thanks, that's a really cool habit! Has this lead to any changes re how you perceive news? How far does news tend to deviate from the sources you find?

The most common pattern I’ve noticed is that news publications will typically include small snippets from the primary source, and then fill the bulk of their article with what amounts to opinion commentary.

It ends up being something that’s technically factual (at best), but spends most of its time trying to convince you of how to feel about the info, rather than just relaying information to you.

This has also inspired me to build a news aggregator site that consists entirely of primary sources like government agencies, company/organization announcements, and statements directly from the person in question on their verified social media.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#278

Post by thereddaikon » Wed, Dec 07, 2022, 4:12 PM UTC

brookst wrote: post #168

thereddaikon wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The highest costs in Semiconductor fabrication are the specialized machines needed. Most of them are at best dual sourced. Many are single sourced. The fact a technician in the US can make $100k when their counterpart in China would make $50k doesn't matter when the EUV Lithography machine is hundreds of millions of dollars.

Capex amortizable across the life of the fab and usually treated beneficially for tax purposes (though these fabs are so tax-special that may be meaningless). Opex is with you forever and affects the economics of the business much more profoundly.

The semiconductor industry is somewhat special in that it requires nearly constant investment in not just R&D but also in upgrading existing fabs to keep up with the cutting edge. And these are well into the billions of dollars.

This is not a problem for players who have dropped out of the race like GloFlo. But its definitely the case for TSMC, Intel and Samsung. Your last three serious players who aren't working for the PRC.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#279

Post by phendrenad2 » Wed, Dec 07, 2022, 4:23 PM UTC

conradev wrote: post #73

adam_arthur wrote: post #63

Onshoring is a logical result of improved automation. When labor costs lessen, transportation and logistics become the primary concern. Wouldn’t be surprised if 100 years from now most final good assembly is done locally. Of course sometimes raw materials and inputs are more expensive to transport than the finished good, so there will always be cases where long distance transportation of finished products is still pr…

Onshoring in this case is a logical result of improved tax incentives. Almost every cost is higher in the US – not just labor. Improved automation does reduce costs, but those cost reductions are even better in places where manufacturing is already cheap. Semiconductors have a very high value to weight ratio, so shipping them globally makes more sense than it does for other items.

The benefits of JIT manufacturing outweigh everything else though. The waves of oversupply and undersupply in the semiconductor world are something that only JIT can fix, and transportation costs are only low if you go against JIT and try to bulk ship items.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#280

Post by philliphaydon » Wed, Dec 07, 2022, 5:21 PM UTC

starkd wrote: post #272

philliphaydon wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And public opinion in Taiwan for resisting China has slightly shifted toward accomadation. Huh? No it hasn’t. Taiwan doesn’t want to end up like Hong kong. They know the 1 country 2 systems doesn’t exist. Taiwan is already an independent country. They just want to keep status quo so China will leave them alone.

There is still widespread anti-unification support, but, as with everything, it's a bit more complex. Recent elections took a bit of the wind out of its sails. Chinese military excercises have taken somewhat of a toll. I know they don't want to end up like Hong Kong, but these public shifts matter if the people don't think they are being supported internationally. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-27/ta…

Local elections don’t have any influence on national elections. Green always loses more to blue. The issue at national level isn’t anything to do with anti unification or anything like that. Alot of people here feel like real issues are not being dealt with. Like the cost of living continues to go up and isn’t addressed.